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703
AXUS74 KMAF 212109
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT FRI FEB 21 2014 /200 PM MDT FRI FEB 21 2014/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 18
FEBRUARY...SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED SLIGHTLY EARLY
DECEMBER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY AND NORTHEAST LEA COUNTIES FARED THE
WORST...AND WERE IN SEVERE DROUGHT.  DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE REST
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO RANGED FROM MODERATE DROUGHT TO NO DROUGHT.
IMPACTS OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE LIKELY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES ...WATER SHORTAGES...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS.  IMPACTS OF
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND
PASTURES.  IN WEST TEXAS...EXTREME DROUGHT HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER.  SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINED IN NORTHWEST GAINES COUNTY
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTY.  THE REST OF WEST TEXAS FARED
FROM MODERATE TO NO DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS HAS BEEN MODEST ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AVERAGING AROUND A HALF AN INCH.
WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 21 FEBRUARY...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT IN
BREWSTER...CRANE...CULBERSON...GLASSCOCK...JEFF
DAVIS...UPTON...WARD...AND WINKLER COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
21 FEBRUARY...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM NEAR 300 IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 600 IN THE BIG BEND
AREA.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 19 FEBRUARY BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN WEST TEXAS...WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALLOWED PRODUCERS TO START PREPARING GROUND FOR COTTON PLANTING.
WHEAT REMAINED DORMANT...AND INSECT ACTIVITY WAS LIGHT TO ALMOST
NONEXISTENT.  SEVERAL PRODUCERS STARTED PRE-WATERING COTTON GROUND.
MOST COWHERDS WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF CALVING SEASON...WITH SOME EARLY
HERDS FINISHING UP.  SOME CALVES BORN ON VERY COLD NIGHTS HAD
FROSTBITTEN EARS.  PRODUCERS WERE STILL PUTTING OUT PROTEIN CUBES
AND SYRUP TO IMPROVE LIVESTOCK NUTRITION.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE WIDE SWINGS OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUED.
MOST COUNTIES WERE STILL SUFFERING SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRODUCERS WERE PREPARING FOR SPRING PLANTING BY CUTTING STALKS AND
SHAPING BEDS.  PRODUCERS WERE SUPPLEMENTING THEIR CATTLE DUE TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  DRYLAND WINTER WHEAT GROWTH WAS MINIMAL, WHILE
IRRIGATED WHEAT WAS MAINTAINING ITS CONDITION BUT NOT FLOURISHING.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 0.24 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 0.52
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 0.28 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.78 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD NO PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 0.88 INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 0.01 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 1.11 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 6
FEBRUARY...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SPRING 2014.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO FORECASTS NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 20 FEBRUARY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OR DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 8 AUGUST:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2205.95  -0.02      5.78          1.3
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2049.44  -0.02     34.43         26.2
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2037.22  -0.01     37.26          7.2
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2332.48   0.06     40.48         80.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3253.45  -0.01     47.45         86.0
AVALON           3177.40  3175.23  -1.05      6.23         60.0
RED BLUFF        2827.13  2813.71  -0.01     49.71         45.3

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY









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