268
AXUS74 KMAF 151605
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-300000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 /1100 AM MST FRI FEB 15 2012/

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON 12 FEBRUARY...SHOWS THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...ONLY EXTREME NORTHWEST LEA COUNTY
WAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT.  MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTIES WERE IN
SEVERE DROUGHT...AND SOUTHEAST EDDY AND SOUTH LEA COUNTIES WERE IN
MODERATE DROUGHT TO ABNORMALLY DRY.  IMPACTS OF EXTREME AND SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY...WATER
SHORTAGES COMMON...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.  IMPACTS OF
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND
PASTURES.  IN WEST TEXAS...ONLY EXTREME EASTERN SCURRY COUNTY WAS IN
EXTREME DROUGHT.  WESTERN CULBERSON...JEFF DAVIS...AND NORTHWEST
PRESIDIO COUNTIES WERE IN SEVERE DROUGHT...AS WERE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS IN MODERATE
DROUGHT TO NO DROUGHT.

DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND MANDATORY
WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 14 FEBRUARY...ALL OF WEST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER AN OUTDOOR BURN
BAN EXCEPT BREWSTER...DAWSON...ECTOR...MIDLAND...AND REEVES COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
14 FEBRUARY...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM NEAR 200 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NEAR 600 IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL
OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND
DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.
NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.  THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO
WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE
MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR RANGES FROM BELOW NORMAL GENERALLY FROM EDDY
COUNTY SOUTH TO CANDELARIA.  RAINFALL IS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
TEXAS UPPER TRANS PECOS...THE PERMIAN BASIN...STOCKTON PLATEAU...AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 1.48 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 0.91
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 0.62 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
0.66 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 0.64 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 0.75
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 2.19 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 0.96 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SPRING.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 7 FEBRUARY BY THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 13 NOVEMBER...

                                 POOL      24-HR    % CONSERVATION
                                  TDY        CHG.       CAPACITY

LAKE JB THOMAS                  2203.19    -0.37           1
LAKE COLORADO CITY              2052.59     0.00          35
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR        2038.51     0.01          11
NATURAL DAM SALT LAKE           2447.35     0.00          49
MOSS CREEK LAKE                 2319.16     0.50          34
BRANTLEY RESERVOIR              3236.55     0.04          17
LAKE AVALON - 3N CARLSBAD       3175.63     0.01          67
RED BLUFF DAM                   2801.56     0.01          14

NEXT ISSUANCE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.  INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE...AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432-563-5006

$$

DEBERRY