602
AXUS74 KMAF 081849
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
100 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 /1200 PM MDT THU AUG 8 2013/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 6
AUGUST...SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE END OF MAY
IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES WERE OUT OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
NORTHWEST EDDY AND PORTIONS OF LEA COUNTY WERE IN EXTREME
DROUGHT...BUT OTHERWISE IN SEVERE DROUGHT TO ABNORMALLY DRY.
IMPACTS OF EXTREME AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE CROP OR
PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY...WATER SHORTAGES COMMON...AND WATER
RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN WEST
TEXAS...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REMAINED ONLY IN PORTIONS OF
ANDREWS...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...MARTIN...AND MIDLAND COUNTIES.
EXTREME DROUGHT BUFFERED THESE AREAS IN THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WEST TEXAS FARED
FROM SEVERE DROUGHT TO NO DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS HAS BEEN MODEST ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AVERAGING 1.45 INCHES IN JUNE AND
2.64 INCHES IN JULY.  DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES
REMAIN...AND MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
DUE TO RECENT RAINS...AS OF 8 AUGUST...MOST OUTDOOR BURN BANS HAVE
BEEN LIFTED.  BANS CURRENTLY REMAIN ONLY IN
CRANE...CULBERSON...GLASSCOCK...JEFF
DAVIS...LOVING...PRESIDIO...UPTON...WARD...AND WINKLER COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
7 AUGUST...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR 300 IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 700 IN THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS AND CHISOS MOUNTAINS.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL
OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND
DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.
NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.  THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO
WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE
MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 6 AUGUST BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN FAR WEST TEXAS...THE TREND OF
EXTREMELY HIGH TEMPERATURES PREVAILED.  COTTON AND PECAN PRODUCERS
CONTINUED IRRIGATING.  IRRIGATED COTTON WAS IN FAIR CONDITION.
RANCHERS CONTINUED PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO LIVESTOCK.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE REGION HAD RAIN...AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS...WITH A FEW COUNTIES REPORTING HAIL DAMAGE.  HIGHS WERE
IN THE MID- TO UPPER-90S MOST OF THE WEEK.  CROPS, PASTURES AND
RANGELAND IMPROVED WHERE THERE WAS RAIN.  MOST COUNTIES REPORTED
INSECT PRESSURE WAS LOW...BUT SINCE THE RAIN OF A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO...WEEDS WERE GROWING RAPIDLY AND PRODUCERS WERE STRUGGLING TO
CONTROL THEM.  COTTON...CORN...AND PEANUTS ALL IMPROVED.  COTTON
RANGED FROM SQUARING TO CUT-OUT.  EARLY PLANTED SORGHUM WAS IN GRAIN
FILL...WHILE LATER-PLANTED SORGHUM WAS STILL IN THE VEGETATIVE
STAGE.  SUNFLOWERS RANGED FROM THE VEGETATIVE STAGE TO NEARLY
MATURE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR IS 25-50 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF ECTOR AND MIDLAND COUNTIES.  THIS IS THE
LARGEST DEFICIT IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL EXTENDS FROM EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND THEN EAST INTO THE
STOCKTON PLATEAU.

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 4.54 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 8.30
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 6.16 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
7.44 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 5.65 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 8.97
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 4.53 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 8.42 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FALL.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 18 JULY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE OR DIMINISH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 8 AUGUST:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2206.70  -0.01      6.74          1.6
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2050.96  -0.03     35.96         29.7
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2038.43  -0.02     38.41          8.2
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2325.13  -0.17     33.13         53.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3234.95  -0.02     28.95         14.0
AVALON           3177.40  3174.81  -0.02      5.81         53.0
RED BLUFF        2827.13  2801.90  -0.02     37.90         18.0

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY