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AXUS74 KFWD 080600
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TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...DROUGHT PERSISTS THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT NORTH OF I-20...

FOR ADDITIONAL CONTENT...VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHTINFO

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SYNOPSIS...

ABUNDANT JULY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR RESULTED IN
IMPROVEMENT OF AS MUCH AS TWO DROUGHT CATEGORIES. BUT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...THE INTENSITY OF THE DROUGHT REMAINED
GENERALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE MONTH. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) PREVAILS
FROM THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA WESTWARD. EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
PERSISTS IN THE POSSUM KINGDOM AREA.

DESPITE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN RECENT MONTHS...THE HYDROLOGIC
DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN IN MANY AREAS. LAKE RAY HUBBARD AND LAKE
NOCONA ARE WITHIN INCHES OF SETTING NEW RECORD LOWS. HUBBARD CREEK
RESERVOIR IS OVER 27 FEET LOW...WITH ONLY 17 PERCENT OF ITS
CONSERVATION VOLUME.

THE ONCE BURGEONING EL NINO LOST ITS MOMENTUM DURING JULY...BUT AN
EL NINO EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE COMING
MONTHS. AS A RESULT...LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR LATE 2014 AND EARLY
2015 FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...WHICH COULD EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

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CLIMATE SUMMARY...

JULY RAINFALL WAS REMARKABLY UNEVEN ACROSS THE REGION. MANY AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ACCUMULATED MORE THAN 5 INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THE MONTH...MORE THAN DOUBLE NORMAL JULY VALUES. PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN DENTON AND SOUTHERN COOKE COUNTIES TALLIED OVER 15 INCHES.
BUT IN AREAS FROM DALLAS/FORT WORTH TO WACO...MONTHLY TOTALS WERE
UNDER 2 INCHES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FAILING TO SEE EVEN ONE INCH.

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL. DEFICITS OVER THE LAST 46 MONTHS (3 YEARS
AND 10 MONTHS) VARY WIDELY BUT EXCEED 40 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.

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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DROUGHT RELIEF IS UNLIKELY DURING THE TYPICALLY DRY MONTH OF AUGUST.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SHIFT TO
THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE SUMMER HEAT.

THE THRESHOLD FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS WAS MET DURING JUNE...BUT SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HAVE
RETURNED TO NORMAL. ALTHOUGH EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
TAKE HOLD IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THIS SUMMER...AN EL NINO EVENT
IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING COLD SEASON. AN EL NINO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE OR STRONG EL
NINO HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. NONETHELESS...LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS
STILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONE STAR STATE AS
EARLY AS THIS FALL AND CONTINUING INTO THE SPRING OF 2015.

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HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DURING JULY...LAKE RAY ROBERTS AND LAKE LEWISVILLE BENEFITTED FROM
TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WITHIN THEIR WATERSHEDS. THE FIRST IN
MID JULY RAISED THE WATER LEVELS OF BOTH LAKES BY 2 FEET...AND THE
SECOND AT THE VERY END OF THE MONTH ADDED ANOTHER FOOT AND A HALF.
DESPITE THE GAINS...LAKE RAY ROBERTS REMAINS AROUND 6 FEET BELOW ITS
CONSERVATION POOL HEIGHT...AND LAKE LEWISVILLE IS STILL 5 FEET LOW.

THE LEVEL AT LAKE GRANBURY HIT AN ALL-TIME LOW ON JUNE 22 BEFORE A
DELUGE IN ITS WATERSHED RAISED THE LEVEL BY MORE THAN 6 FEET IN JUST
2 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LAKE HAS BEEN IN STEADY DECLINE SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF JULY...LOSING A FOOT AND A HALF FROM ITS POST-DELUGE
PEAK.

LAKE RAY HUBBARD...A WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR DALLAS...REACHED AN
ALL-TIME RECORD LOW IN EARLY MAY. FLOODING RAINS RAISED THE LAKE
LEVEL 16 INCHES...BUT NEARLY ALL OF THAT GAIN HAS SINCE BEEN LOST
THROUGH EVAPORATION AND USAGE. THE LAKE LEVEL IS LESS THAN 3 INCHES
FROM SETTING A NEW RECORD LOW.

LAKE NOCONA (MONTAGUE COUNTY) REACHED A NEW RECORD LOW ON JULY 30.
HEAVY RAIN AT THE VERY END OF THE MONTH STOPPED ITS PRECIPITOUS
DECLINE...BUT THE GAIN WAS ONLY A FEW INCHES.

ON JUNE 17...POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE DIPPED TO 984.25...ITS LOWEST LEVEL
SINCE 1971. THE LEVEL ROSE SEVERAL INCHES IN THE SUBSEQUENT 2 WEEKS
BUT IS NOW ONLY A FEW INCHES ABOVE THE LOW WATERMARK FROM JUNE.


                        NEW              RECORD LOW          YEAR
                     RECORD LOW            BEFORE           DAM WAS
                    SET THIS YEAR      CURRENT DROUGHT     COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY      681.48 / JUN 22    685.28 / AUG 1978      1969
LAKE NOCONA        814.45 / JUL 30    816.95 / OCT 2000      1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD   427.42 / MAY 7     429.72 / OCT 2000      1969


AFTER FIVE YEARS OF QUARANTINE...WATER FROM LAKE TEXOMA IS AVAILABLE
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF A NEW PIPELINE. BUT WITH
THE LEVELS AT LAKE LAVON AND JIM CHAPMAN LAKE ALMOST TOO LOW FOR
WATER TO BE PUMPED OUT...THE NORTH TEXAS MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT
(NTMWD) WILL CONTINUE ITS STAGE 3 WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. THIS
LIMITS LANDSCAPE WATERING TO ONCE EVERY TWO WEEKS. (RESTRICTIONS MAY
VARY AMONG LOCAL JURISDICTIONS WITHIN THE NTMWD.) THE GOAL OF STAGE
3 WATER CONSERVATION IS TO REDUCE OVERALL USAGE BY 10 PERCENT. EACH
MONTH...THE NTMWD WILL REASSESS THE NEED FOR STAGE 3 MEASURES. (THE
NTMWD SERVES 1.6 MILLION CUSTOMERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
DALLAS.)

IN APRIL...THE FORT WORTH CITY COUNCIL MADE PERMANENT ITS TWICE-PER-
WEEK LIMIT ON LANDSCAPE WATERING. ONLY HAND WATERING IS ALLOWED
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. ARLINGTON...ALSO WITHIN THE TARRANT REGIONAL
WATER DISTRICT (TRWD) SERVICE AREA...HAS SIMILAR RESTRICTIONS BUT IS
NOT READY TO MAKE THEM PERMANENT. DALLAS WILL CONTINUE ITS TWICE-
PER-WEEK LIMIT...AS WELL AS THE DAYTIME RESTRICTION ON TRADITIONAL
SPRINKLERS...THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER. SINCE WATER RESTRICTIONS
VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE METROPLEX...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP
INFORMED WITH THE CURRENT GUIDELINES FROM THEIR MUNICIPALITY OR
WATER UTILITY PROVIDER.

VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION CONTINUES FOR BOTH WACO AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN.
HOWEVER...WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
WITHIN MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES.

THE BRAZOS RIVER AUTHORITY IS ASKING CUSTOMERS WITHIN THE UPPER
BRAZOS BASIN...AS WELL AS AREAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS WHITNEY...TO
REDUCE USAGE BY 10 PERCENT.

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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE AUGUST
OR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

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&&

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RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARINGHOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE PROVIDE
ROUTINE ASSESSMENTS OF CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL
AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE (NASS)...PART OF THE UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). THE PERIODIC STATEWIDE SUMMARIES
THAT RESULT ARE USED AS A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR THE AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS SECTION. ADDITIONAL NATIONAL AND STATEWIDE STATISTICS ARE
FROM THE WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER ASSESSMENTS (COMPILED BY THE
USDA).

THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

THE HYDROLOGIC DATA ARE COMPILED FROM NUMEROUS SOURCES...INCLUDING
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...THE TEXAS WATER
DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB)...AND LOCAL WATER DISTRICTS.

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

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$$

HUCKABY/25







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