[Printable]
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AXUS74 KEWX 121658
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-261700-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM LAST WEEK...
SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WAS HOT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. OVER
THE LAST WEEK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION. THIS HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN ONLY
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN...LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WHILE OTHERS HAVE
SEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES. A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 16TH THE REGION MAY GET
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...BUT CURRENTLY THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS AND NOT AS MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL HAVE SEEN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT
IMPACTS. COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO HELPED AFTER OVER A MONTH
OF 100 DEGREE DAYS. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE AS THE SOILS ARE
QUICK TO DRY OUT AFTER RAINFALL EVENTS AND HIGHER EVAPORATION
RATES. VERY LOW FLOWS OR NO FLOWS CONTINUE ON MANY RIVERS AND
CREEKS SINCE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE RUN OFF. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
REMAIN VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY UNTIL WE BEGIN TO SEE
RAINFALL OCCURRING MORE FREQUENTLY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
WINTER. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE
HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE
LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 10TH AND ISSUED ON
SEPTEMBER 12TH INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN SEVERE (D2) TO
EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS. A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STATUS.
CURRENTLY 87 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER
THREATS WILL INCREASE.
AS OF SEPTEMBER 12TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 23 COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE:
ATASCOSA CALDWELL GONZALES MEDINA
BANDERA COMAL GUADALUPE TRAVIS
BASTROP DEWITT HAYS VAL VERDE
BEXAR DIMMIT KENDALL WILLIAMSON
BLANCO FAYETTE LEE WILSON
BURNET GILLESPIE LLANO
COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:
EDWARDS LAVACA
FRIO MAVERICK
KARNES REAL
KERR UVALDE
KINNEY ZAVALA
RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.
THE SEPTEMBER 12TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:
KBDI VALUES: 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700
DEWITT KARNES ATASCOSA BANDERA HAYS
LAVACA BURNET BASTROP KENDALL
EDWARDS BEXAR KERR
GONZALES BLANCO KINNEY
GUADALUPE CALDWELL LEE
LLANO COMAL MEDINA
MAVERICK DIMMIT TRAVIS
REAL FAYETTE VAL VERDE
UVALDE FRIO WILLIAMSON
WILSON GILLESPIE ZAVALA
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON SEPTEMBER 10TH INDICATED THE REGION RECEIVED
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH SOME AREAS GETTING 1.5 INCHES AND
OTHERS GETTING NONE. THE LIGHT RAINS MAINTAINED SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS...BUT WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A DECREASE IN OVERALL
AVAILABLE GRAZING IN PASTURES AND RANGELAND. SURFACE AND
GROUNDWATER SUPPLIES REMAINED SIGNIFICANTLY LOW. THE COTTON
HARVEST BEGAN WITH GOOD YIELDS REPORTED. SESAME WA IN FULL BLOOM.
FALL CORN BEGAN TO TASSEL AND LOOKED GOOD. OVERALL...LIVESTOCK
REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND THEN POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 16TH.
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2013 TO MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 11, 2013
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:
2013 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT
LOCATION RAINFALL TO DATE FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
AUSTIN MABRY 18.01 23.34 -5.33 77%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 21.74 21.49 +0.25 101%
SAN ANTONIO 23.84 22.13 +1.71 108%
DEL RIO 9.88 14.41 -4.53 69%
PRECIPITATION SINCE JUNE 1, 2013 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:
LOCATION RAINFALL SINCE NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT
JUNE 1ST FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL
AUSTIN MABRY 4.33 9.81 -5.48 44%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 6.36 9.44 -3.08 67%
SAN ANTONIO 4.00 10.16 -6.16 39%
DEL RIO 6.66 7.21 -0.55 92%
FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 1.39 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.49 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.90 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 84.7 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 83.0 DEGREES.
FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.79 OF AN INCH BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 1.19 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 86.9 DEGREES. THIS
IS 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.4 DEGREES.
FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.23 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.02 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.25 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 87.2
DEGREES. THIS IS 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.7 DEGREES.
FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 2.52 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.54 INCHES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 0.98 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 84.0
DEGREES. THIS IS 3.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.3 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOWS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED SEPTEMBER 11 AND VALID SEPTEMBER 19 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 25 2013
WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2013 THROUGH NOVEMBER
2013...CREATED ON AUGUST 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS FOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG SIGNALS
FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON SEPTEMBER 19 2013.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE AS ONLY SPOTTY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE SUMMER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL. EVAPORATION RATES
REMAIN HIGH.
WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN RAINFALL SOME SHORT TERM DROUGHT
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA
AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS CONTINUES AND WILL ONLY GET WORSE
DUE TO INCREASED USAGE AND HIGHER EVAPORATION RATES.
THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COLORADO...GUADALUPE AND LOWER SAN ANTONIO
RIVER BASINS. THE RIO GRANDE...NUECES...FRIO AND UPPER SAN ANTONIO
BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10 TO 24 PERCENT) FLOWS.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 12TH...
AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS. AFTER STEADY RISES FROM RAINFALL IN MEXICO AND THE
DRAINAGE BASIN TO THE NORTH...LAKE AMISTAD LEVELS HAVE HELD
STEADY OVER THE PAST WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.
NORMAL POOL LATEST ELEVATION DIFFERENCE
(FT) (FT) (FT)
LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1070.2 -47.1
MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 978.5 -85.6
CANYON LAKE 909 897.3 -11.5
LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 772.8 -17.9
LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 986.0 -33.6
LAKE TRAVIS 681 619.9 -61.1
LAKE BUCHANAN...LAKE MEDINA AND LAKE TRAVIS ALL REMAIN VERY LOW.
LAKE BUCHANAN IS NOW AT THE SECOND LOWEST LEVEL ON RECORD...MEDINA
LAKE IS ALSO AT THE SECOND LOWEST LEVEL ON RECORD AND LAKE TRAVIS
IS AT THE THIRD LOWEST LEVEL ON RECORD.
RECORD LOW LAKE LEVELS:
LOCATION LEVEL DATE OF OCCURRENCE
LAKE BUCHANAN 983.70 FEET 09/09/1952
LAKE TRAVIS 614.18 FEET 08/14/1951
MEDINA LAKE **944.00 FEET ** 04/11/1948
** THE MEDINA LAKE VALUE WAS AT THE OLD DATUM LEVEL. THE NEW
DATUM LEVEL WOULD PROVIDE A LEVEL OF 936.2 FEET
RESTRICTIONS...
THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE THE RECENT DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY AVERAGE
TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.
SAWS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING THAT WATER RESERVES SHOULD ALLOW THEM
TO HOLD BACK ON STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUMMER. THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3
RESTRICTIONS WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE
THEIR PUMPING BY 35 PERCENT.
LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:
CURRENT SEPTEMBER DEPARTURE FROM LEVEL ON THIS DEPARTURE FROM
LEVEL AVERAGE AVERAGE DATE IN 2012 2012 LEVEL
633.9 FT 661.5 FT -27.6 FT 637.8 FT -3.9 FT
MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT REMAINS
IN STAGE 3 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THE DISTRICT HAS ANNOUNCED THEY
ANTICIPATE APPROACHING STAGE 4 AT THE END OF THE YEAR IF NO
SIGNIFICANT RECHARGE OCCURS.
LOCATION CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS
UVALDE STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS STAGE 3
AUSTIN STAGE 2
KERRVILLE STAGE 2
SEGUIN STAGE 1
ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND SEPTEMBER 26 2013 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617
$$