467
AXUS74 KEWX 092031
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-232045-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

MAY HAS SEEN A COUPLE OF DECENT RAINFALL EVENTS AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SEVERAL MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RAINFALL IS COMING
ON THE HEELS OF A WETTER THAN AVERAGE APRIL. SO FAR IMPROVEMENTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS. VERY LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SEE IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 HAVE REPORTED STOCK TANK
WATER LEVELS ARE FALLING OR CURRENTLY ARE VERY LOW. RIVERS...LAKES
AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY UNTIL A
PROLONGED WET PERIOD DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT
LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 IS SHOWING STRONGER
TRENDS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER TRENDS FOR
ABOUT EQUAL CHANCES FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE
RAINFALL.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN THROUGH SUMMER 2013.
EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP
DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT
ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL
TO THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MAY 7TH AND ISSUED ON MAY 9TH
INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS.
THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STATUS.
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT
STATUS AS WELL.

CURRENTLY 92 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). THIRTEEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE. GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE FIRE THREAT. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS SEEN...THEN
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHOW AT LEAST SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT.

AS OF MAY 9TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS
INCLUDE BEXAR...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KARNES... KINNEY...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...VAL VERDE AND WILSON COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE
NO BURN BANS IN PLACE.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE MAY 9TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED KBDI
VALUES OF 0 TO 500 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND 500
TO 700 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON MAY 7TH INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
THROUGHOUT THE HILL COUNTRY. HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MEDINA
COUNTY...BUT VERY LITTLE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED IN CROPS.
GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL WITH HEAVY WINDS. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AFFECTED CROP AND PASTURE GROWTH. STOCK TANK
WATER LEVELS WERE LOW.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2013 TO MIDNIGHT MAY 8, 2013 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2013       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY        7.66       10.10       -2.44          76%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   10.29       10.10       +0.19         102%
SAN ANTONIO         7.30        8.87       -1.57          82%
DEL RIO             1.75        4.97       -3.22          35%

FOR MAY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS
0.58 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.58 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR MAY TO DATE IS 72.7 DEGREES. THIS IS 3.6 DEGREES
BELOW THE NORMAL OF 76.3 DEGREES.

FOR MAY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.65 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.26 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.91 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MAY TO DATE IS 65.9 DEGREES. THIS IS
8.1 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 74.0 DEGREES.

FOR MAY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.01 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 1.00 INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.01 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MAY TO DATE IS 66.9 DEGREES. THIS
IS 6.9 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 73.8 DEGREES.

FOR MAY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.01 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.70 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.71 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MAY TO DATE IS 64.3 DEGREES. THIS IS 7.9
DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 72.2 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE SCATTERED RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ISOLATED
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL RANGE FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED MAY 8 AND VALID MAY 16 THROUGH MAY 22 2013 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG SIGNALS
FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2013 THROUGH AUGUST 2013...
CREATED ON APRIL 18TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE
AVERAGE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE
UPDATED AGAIN ON MAY 16 2013.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE HELPED TO GREATLY REDUCE YEAR TO
DATE RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER
SEVERAL VERY COOL DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE VALUES FOR MID MAY. LAKE LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OR CONTINUING TO FALL SLOWLY. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE THE
EVAPORATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY SOME SHORT TERM...BUT
MOSTLY LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COLORADO...UPPER AND LOWER
GUADALUPE...THE NUECES AND FRIO RIVER BASINS. THE MIDDLE
GUADALUPE AND RIO GRANDE BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10 TO 24 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO BASIN WAS REPORTING
NORMAL (25 TO 75 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MAY 9TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117            1056.2            -60.8
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2           981.9            -82.3
CANYON LAKE          909             899.1             -9.9
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791             778.1            -12.9
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020             990.7            -29.3
LAKE TRAVIS          681             628.1            -52.9

MEDINA LAKE CONTINUES TO FALL AND WAS AT 5.4 PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
THE SURFACE AREA WAS REDUCED TO 855 ACRES. THIS DATA WAS CURRENT
AS OF MAY 9, 2013.

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. ONCE A RESTRICTION IS IN PLACE...THAT RESTRICTION
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 30 DAYS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AQUIFER LEVEL.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER WAS READING 647.4 FEET AS OF MAY 9TH. THIS WAS
18.8 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR MAY WHICH IS
666.2 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL WAS 7.6 FEET BELOW THE LEVEL
OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN MAY 2012.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT WENT
INTO STAGE 3 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS IN APRIL.

UVALDE IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 5 WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN AND SAN
MARCOS ARE CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. KERRVILLE IS
CURRENTLY IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO
WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN AT ANY
TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MAY 23 2013 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$