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AXUS74 KEWX 141750
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-281800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013

...SLIGHT WORSENING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...

SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY HAS SEEN BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE SEEN
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT RAINFALL TRIGGERED BY SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK FRONTS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD TO REALLY
HELP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT LONGER
RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
STRONG SIGNALS FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND SEVERAL COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE
COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS IN PLACE. LONG TERM IMPACTS ALSO CONTINUE
AS LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL LEVELS. ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS WILL HELP THE SHORT TERM IMPACTS AS
WELL AS THE LONGER TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING AN ENSO
(EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN INTO SPRING. EVEN
THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE
WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID FEBRUARY 12TH AND ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 14TH INDICATED SLIGHT WORSENING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS CURRENTLY IN
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STATUS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NOW REPORTING MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS
REMAINS IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STATUS.

CURRENTLY 76 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4). EIGHT PERCENT OF THE STATE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONTS...THE FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME VERY HIGH WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS SEEN...THEN
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHOW AT LEAST SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT.

AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 15 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR
BURN BANS INCLUDE BEXAR...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KERR...KINNEY...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
TRAVIS...VAL VERDE AND WILSON COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...REAL...UVALDE... WILLIAMSON AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE.

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING.

THE FEBRUARY 14TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
KBDI VALUES OF 200 TO 500 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AND 500 TO 700 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY
FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION SINCE EARLY JANUARY.
SOME GREEN UP HAS BEEN NOTED IN PASTURES WHERE RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY HAS SEEN MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ONLY ISOLATED
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2013 TO MIDNIGHT FEBRUARY 13, 2013
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                    2013       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                  RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY        3.20        3.13       +0.07         102%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM    3.31        3.30       +0.01         100%
SAN ANTONIO         2.92        2.59       +0.33         113%
DEL RIO             1.33        1.10       +0.23         121%

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS
0.38 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.38 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE TO DATE FOR FEBRUARY IS 62.8 DEGREES. THIS IS 7.7
DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 55.1 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.09 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.74 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 0.83 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO DATE FOR FEBRUARY IS 61.7 DEGREES.
THIS IS 7.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 54.0 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.32 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.59 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.91 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY TO DATE FOR FEBRUARY
IS 61.7 DEGREES. THIS IS 8.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 53.6 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.60 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.47 OF AN INCH BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 1.07 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO DATE FOR FEBRUARY IS 59.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS 8.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 50.8 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED FEBRUARY 13TH AND VALID FEBRUARY 21 THROUGH FEBRUARY 27 2013
WAS INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2013 THROUGH MAY 2013...
CREATED ON JANUARY 17TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON
FEBRUARY 21 2013.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SO FAR FEBRUARY HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL AND MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. LAKE LEVELS ARE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO HOLD DOWN THE EVAPORATION RATES
UNTIL WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN IN SPRING AND INCREASE THE DAILY
EVAPORATION RATES.

THE MAIN DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY SHORT AND LONG TERM
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COLORADO AND GUADALUPE BASINS.
THE RIO GRANDE... MEDINA...NUECES AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED BELOW
NORMAL (10 TO 24 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO BASIN REPORTED
NORMAL (25 TO 75 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...

AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)
LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1067.2           -49.8
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2            989.5           -74.7
CANYON LAKE         909              900.1            -8.9
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              779.6           -11.4
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              992.2           -27.8
LAKE TRAVIS         681              631.5           -49.5

MEDINA LAKE CONTINUES TO FALL AND WAS AT 8.3 PERCENT OF CAPACITY
AS OF FEBRUARY 14, 2013.

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. ONCE A RESTRICTION IS IN PLACE...THAT RESTRICTION
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR 30 DAYS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AQUIFER LEVEL.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER WAS READING 653.1 FEET AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH.
THIS IS 16.8 FEET BELOW THE HISTORICAL MONTHLY AVERAGE FOR
FEBRUARY WHICH IS 669.9 FEET. THE AQUIFER LEVEL IS 8.0 FEET BELOW
THE LEVEL OBSERVED ON THIS DATE IN FEBRUARY 2012.

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT REMAINS
IN STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
SEEN IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...STAGE 3 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS MAY BE
REQUIRED IN EARLY MARCH.

UVALDE IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS. AUSTIN IS
CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. SAN MARCOS AND KERRVILLE
ARE CURRENTLY IN STAGE 1 WATER RESTRICTIONS. ALL CITIES CONTINUE
TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD RETURN AT ANY
TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND FEBRUARY 28 2013 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$