[Printable]
000 AXUS74 KEPZ 210352 RRA DGTEPZ NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 900 850 PM NOV 20 2009 ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HIDALGO COUNTY WITH MODERATE DROUGHT NOW PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THAT COUNTY. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL OF GRANT COUNTY AND THE WESTERN HALF OF LUNA COUNTY AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OTERO COUNTY NEW MEXICO AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF HUDSPETH COUNTY IN FAR WEST TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... RAINFALL IN THE EL PASO AREA IS RUNNING 81.4% OF NORMAL SO FAR THIS YEAR. WITH 6.89 INCHES AS OF 11/20 (1.57 INCHES BELOW NORMAL). AFTER THE THIRD DRIEST START ON RECORD FROM JAN 1 THROUGH MAY 20...JUNE`S RAINFALL OF 2.24 INCHES (WITH A RECORD ANOMALY IN A SINGLE EVENT OF OF 1.85 INCHES ON JUNE 28) WAS 257 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. THE OFFICIAL MONSOON SEASON IS NOW DEFINED AS JUNE 15 - SEP 30 AND EL PASO RECEIVED5.82 INCHES WHICH IS 110% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS MONSOON SEASON. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION F0R JULY AND AUG WAS ONLY 33% OF NORMAL. BUT PRECIPITATION FOR SEPTEMBER THROUGH SEPTEMBER 19TH RAN 174% OF NORMAL WITH SEPTEMBER 17TH SETTING A NEW DAILY RECORD OF .8 INCHES. THEN IT SHUT OFF WITH EL PASO RECEIVING ONLY A TRANCE OF RAIN SINCE SEPTEMBER 19TH. OVERALL THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE LAST 60 DAYS IS AVERAGING FROM 0% TO 30% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION LEADING TO THE ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING AND MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ON THE ARIZONA NEW MEXICO BORDER OF HIDALGO COUNTY. PRECIPITATION FOR THE YEAR TO DATE OVER THE BORDERLAND IS RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 25% OF NORMAL IN MOST OF HUDSPETH AND SOUTHEAST OTERO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IT IS RUNNING FROM 45% TO 85% FOR EL PASO...WESTERN OTERO...DONA ANA...LUNA...SIERRA...GRANT...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ISOLATED AREAS OF 110% TO 150% OF NORMAL EXIST IN SIERRA COUNTY. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML ...ENSO ALERT STATUS: AN EL NINO `ADVISORY` IS NOW IN EFFECT...EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER OF 2009-2010 AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN LATE 2009 INTO EARLY 2010... ...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK WHICH FORECASTS THE DROUGHT TENDENCY FROM NOVEMBER 20,2009 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2010 SHOWS NO CHANGE IN PRESENT CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. VIEW THESE FORECASTS AT HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/FORECAST.HTML IMPACTS... D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT. D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED. D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. THE EXTREME DROUGHT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LAST YEAR HAS INFLICTED A ONE BILLION DOLLAR LOST TO AGRICULTURE INTERESTS IN THE LONE START STATE ALREADY AND IS STILL PERSISTING IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... WITH THE ONGOING EL NINO...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA CONTINUES TO PREDICT HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FROM DECEMBER 2009 INTO MAY OF 2010. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7955 AIRPORT ROAD SANTA TERESA NM 88008 PHONE...505-589-4088 DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO $$ NOVLAN