160
AXUS74 KEPZ 290239 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO
838 PM SEP 28 2013

...LATE MONSOON RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE BORDERLAND AND UNFORTUNATELY IN SOME AREAS IT
CAME AS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...
...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF SEP 24:...
...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT WEST OF A DEMING - SILVER CITY LINE
AND IN NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES OTHERWISE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...FAR WEST TEXAS: NO DROUGHT IN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES BUT
ABNORMALLY DRY IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.

SYNOPSIS...


AS OF AUG 24 2013 ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED AND ARE FAVORED
INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE SPRING OF 2014. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE ENSO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
USED TO MONITOR ENSO CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEUTRAL RANGE
THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2014 WITH A TENDENCY TO SHOW A SLIGHT TREND
JUST BELOW EL NINO THRESHOLDS.


THE EL PASO AREA AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING 118% OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 TO DATE FOR 2013 WITH THE MONSOON
OFFICIALLY CLOSING ON SEPT 30.

THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS SHUT DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR SOUTH
OF ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR WHICH DIPPED DOWN TO 3% CAPACITY BEFORE
THE ONSET OF OUR MONSOON SEASON. THE MONSOON  RAINFALL ALMOST
TRIPLED THE CAPACITY BRINGING IT UP 8.1%. DURING THE INTENSE
RAINFALL OF SEPTEMBER 10 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 13 THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH
OF ELEPHANT BUTTE ACTUALLY HAD SOME WATER COVERING ITS SURFACE FROM
BANK TO BANK.

THIS YEAR`S MONSOON WAS OVERALL LATE WITH THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS
FAVORING MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SEASON TOTAL FOR
EL PASO WILL END UP WITH 8.16 INCHES WHICH IS 159% OF NORMAL (5.14
INCHES) THUS MAKING IT THE 11TH WETTEST MONSOON SINCE 1879. EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE MONSOON AVERAGE WAS ABOUT 250% OF NORMAL
WHILE WEST OF THE DIVIDE IT WAS MORE AROUND 100% NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR JAN THROUGH AUGUST FOR A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS FOLLOW:
EL PASO........................ 5.30   AMTS IN INCHES
LAS CRUCES..................... 2.90   STATE UNIV
SANTA TERESA .................. 7.24   KEPZ
DEMING......................... 6.24
ANIMAS......................... 4.81
GILA HOT SPRINGS............... 8.70
FAYWOOD........................ 6.83
WINSTON........................ 9.66
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... 5.37
CLOUDCROFT..................... 14.60

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST NO CHANGE IN THE DROUGHT STATUS THROUGH
THE END OF 2013.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS IN "BELOW CHANCES" OF  NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
THE UPCOMING WINTER OF 2013 AND SPRING OF 2014. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SPRING OF 2014.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN