[Printable]
160 AXUS74 KEPZ 290239 CCA DGTEPZ NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 838 PM SEP 28 2013 ...LATE MONSOON RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE BORDERLAND AND UNFORTUNATELY IN SOME AREAS IT CAME AS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING... ...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF SEP 24:... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT WEST OF A DEMING - SILVER CITY LINE AND IN NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES OTHERWISE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...FAR WEST TEXAS: NO DROUGHT IN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES BUT ABNORMALLY DRY IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. SYNOPSIS... AS OF AUG 24 2013 ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED AND ARE FAVORED INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE SPRING OF 2014. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE ENSO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN USED TO MONITOR ENSO CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEUTRAL RANGE THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2014 WITH A TENDENCY TO SHOW A SLIGHT TREND JUST BELOW EL NINO THRESHOLDS. THE EL PASO AREA AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING 118% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 TO DATE FOR 2013 WITH THE MONSOON OFFICIALLY CLOSING ON SEPT 30. THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS SHUT DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR SOUTH OF ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR WHICH DIPPED DOWN TO 3% CAPACITY BEFORE THE ONSET OF OUR MONSOON SEASON. THE MONSOON RAINFALL ALMOST TRIPLED THE CAPACITY BRINGING IT UP 8.1%. DURING THE INTENSE RAINFALL OF SEPTEMBER 10 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 13 THE RIO GRANDE SOUTH OF ELEPHANT BUTTE ACTUALLY HAD SOME WATER COVERING ITS SURFACE FROM BANK TO BANK. THIS YEAR`S MONSOON WAS OVERALL LATE WITH THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS FAVORING MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SEASON TOTAL FOR EL PASO WILL END UP WITH 8.16 INCHES WHICH IS 159% OF NORMAL (5.14 INCHES) THUS MAKING IT THE 11TH WETTEST MONSOON SINCE 1879. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THE MONSOON AVERAGE WAS ABOUT 250% OF NORMAL WHILE WEST OF THE DIVIDE IT WAS MORE AROUND 100% NORMAL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR JAN THROUGH AUGUST FOR A FEW SELECT LOCATIONS FOLLOW: EL PASO........................ 5.30 AMTS IN INCHES LAS CRUCES..................... 2.90 STATE UNIV SANTA TERESA .................. 7.24 KEPZ DEMING......................... 6.24 ANIMAS......................... 4.81 GILA HOT SPRINGS............... 8.70 FAYWOOD........................ 6.83 WINSTON........................ 9.66 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... 5.37 CLOUDCROFT..................... 14.60 SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST NO CHANGE IN THE DROUGHT STATUS THROUGH THE END OF 2013. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN "BELOW CHANCES" OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE THE UPCOMING WINTER OF 2013 AND SPRING OF 2014. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SPRING OF 2014. IMPACTS... D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES. D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT. D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED. D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7955 AIRPORT ROAD SANTA TERESA NM 88008 PHONE...505-589-4088 DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO $$ NOVLAN
