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Drought Information Statement
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 1015
145 PM FEB 2 2013

...MODERATE DROUGHT PREVAILS OVER WESTERN HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN GRANT
COUNTIES AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OTERO COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
DONA ANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LUNA COUNTIES WITH SEVERE DROUGHT
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH MODERATE DROUGHT PREVAILING IN
EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES OF FAR WEST TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
AS OF JANUARY 10 2013 NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS PREVAILED MORE OR
LESS OVER THE  NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
DURING THE REST OF THE WINTER (FEBRUARY 2013) AND CONTINUE INTO THE
SPRING OF 2013. WEAK COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITH OVERALL CONDITIONS AVERAGING OUT TO
NEUTRAL...HOWEVER FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES FOR OUR AREA CONDITIONS
"MIMIC" A VERY WEAK LA NINA OR A "GHOST LIKE" RESEMBLANCE TO LA NINA.
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE THREE MONTH TIME FRAME OF
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION FOR 2012 RAN 63% OF NORMAL IN THE EL PASO AREA
AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 75% OF NORMAL TO DATE FOR 2013. WHILE
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS DURING THE JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER PERIOD PRECIPITATION
RANGED IN THE 40% TO 80% NORMAL CATEGORY (AVERAGING AROUND 60%).
OVERALL PRECIPITATION FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
HAS GENERALLY BEEN BELOW 60% NORMAL FOR THE PAST 90 DAYS.

CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM JAN - DEC IN INCHES FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS FOLLOW:
EL PASO.......................6.05
LAS CRUCES....................5.52
DEMING........................4.69
ANIMAS........................6.09
FT. BAYARD....................7.88
FAYWOOD.......................4.91
WINSTON.......................8.22
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.........5.30
TULAROSA......................4.81
CLOUDCROFT....................19.4



SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST THE PRESENT
DROUGHT CATEGORIES OVER OUR AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH APRIL 30
2013.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 2013
THROUGH MAY OF 2013. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE FORECAST.



IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN







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Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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