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621 AXUS74 KEPZ 022355 CCA DGTEPZ NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 1015 145 PM FEB 2 2013 ...MODERATE DROUGHT PREVAILS OVER WESTERN HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OTERO COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST DONA ANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LUNA COUNTIES WITH SEVERE DROUGHT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH MODERATE DROUGHT PREVAILING IN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES OF FAR WEST TEXAS... SYNOPSIS... AS OF JANUARY 10 2013 NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS PREVAILED MORE OR LESS OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE WINTER (FEBRUARY 2013) AND CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING OF 2013. WEAK COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITH OVERALL CONDITIONS AVERAGING OUT TO NEUTRAL...HOWEVER FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES FOR OUR AREA CONDITIONS "MIMIC" A VERY WEAK LA NINA OR A "GHOST LIKE" RESEMBLANCE TO LA NINA. NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE THREE MONTH TIME FRAME OF SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER. OVERALL PRECIPITATION FOR 2012 RAN 63% OF NORMAL IN THE EL PASO AREA AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 75% OF NORMAL TO DATE FOR 2013. WHILE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THE JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER PERIOD PRECIPITATION RANGED IN THE 40% TO 80% NORMAL CATEGORY (AVERAGING AROUND 60%). OVERALL PRECIPITATION FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO HAS GENERALLY BEEN BELOW 60% NORMAL FOR THE PAST 90 DAYS. CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM JAN - DEC IN INCHES FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FOLLOW: EL PASO.......................6.05 LAS CRUCES....................5.52 DEMING........................4.69 ANIMAS........................6.09 FT. BAYARD....................7.88 FAYWOOD.......................4.91 WINSTON.......................8.22 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.........5.30 TULAROSA......................4.81 CLOUDCROFT....................19.4 SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS FORECAST THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES OVER OUR AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH APRIL 30 2013. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 2013 THROUGH MAY OF 2013. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE FORECAST. IMPACTS... D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES. D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT. D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED. D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELPDROUGHTPAGE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7955 AIRPORT ROAD SANTA TERESA NM 88008 PHONE...505-589-4088 DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO $$ NOVLAN