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076 FXXX10 KWNP 200031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Oct 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 20-Oct 22 2014 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 00-03UT 3 3 3 03-06UT 3 3 3 06-09UT 2 4 4 09-12UT 2 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 3 3 3 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 3 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance of reaching S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over the next three days (20-22 Oct) due to the potential for major flare activity from large and complex Region 2192. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 19 2014 0503 UTC Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) solar flare radio blackout activity is likely with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) solar flare radio blackout activity over the next three days (20-22 Oct). Region 2192 is expected to be the likely source of any subsequent major flare activity.