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671
FXXX10 KWNP 021231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 02-Sep 04 2014

            Sep 02     Sep 03     Sep 04
00-03UT        2          2          3
03-06UT        3          2          2
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          3
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        2          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014

              Sep 02  Sep 03  Sep 04
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
slightly enhanced, but below alert threshold levels (S1-Minor) for the
next three days (02-04 Sep) following the large flare event on the
non-Earth side of the sun.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014

              Sep 02        Sep 03        Sep 04
R1-R2           20%           20%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio
blackouts over the next two days (02-03 Sep) with Regions 2149 or 2152
being the likely sources.  By day three (04 Sep), the chance for an
R1-R2 event will increase as old Region 2139 (N15, L=053) returns.




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