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945
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 01-Aug 03 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 01-Aug 03 2014

            Aug 01     Aug 02     Aug 03
00-03UT        2          1          4
03-06UT        1          1          3
06-09UT        1          0          3
09-12UT        1          1          3
12-15UT        1          1          3
15-18UT        1          1          2
18-21UT        2          4          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2014

              Aug 01  Aug 02  Aug 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 31 2014 1114 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2014

              Aug 01        Aug 02        Aug 03
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.




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