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428 FXXX10 KWNP 201230 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Apr 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 20-Apr 22 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 20-Apr 22 2014 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 00-03UT 3 5 (G1) 4 03-06UT 2 4 3 06-09UT 1 4 2 09-12UT 3 4 2 12-15UT 5 (G1) 2 2 15-18UT 6 (G2) 2 2 18-21UT 5 (G1) 3 2 21-00UT 5 (G1) 4 3 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 Apr due to the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) from 16 and 18 Apr. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely early on 21 Apr as CME effects persist. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 20-Apr 22 2014 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 S1 or greater 99% 75% 50% Rationale: The in-progress S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that began on 18 Apr is expected to continue for 20-21 Apr with a chance of remaining at or above the S1 threshold on 22 Apr. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 20-Apr 22 2014 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 R1-R2 55% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are likely with a slight chance for R3 or greater radio blackouts on 20 Apr due to active region flare activity. A chance for R1-R2 conditions exists for 21-22 Apr.