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643 FXXX10 KWNP 020031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Oct 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 02-Oct 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 02-Oct 04 2014 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct 04 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 1 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2014 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct 04 S1 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2014 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct 04 R1-R2 45% 35% 20% R3 or greater 5% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts during the forecast period, as large regions decay and rotate off the west limb. By 04 October, only a slight chance remains.