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809 FXXX10 KWNP 181231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Dec 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20 00-03UT 1 2 4 03-06UT 1 2 4 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 4 2 Rationale: Slightly enhanced geomagnetic field conditions are expected to begin late on 19 Dec, with a chance for isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor) due to the arrival of the CME associated with the M8 flare observed on 17 Dec. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the potential for a proton producing solar event from Regions 2241 or 2242. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 17 2014 1901 UTC Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackout levels are expected for the next three days (18-20 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic structures. There is also a chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) radio blackout event during the forecast period.