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388
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 23-Dec 25 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 23-Dec 25 2014

            Dec 23     Dec 24     Dec 25
00-03UT        5 (G1)     3          3
03-06UT        4          2          2
06-09UT        3          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          1
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms periods are expected early on
23 Dec due to effects from the 18 Dec coronal mass ejection (CME).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 23-Dec 25 2014

              Dec 23  Dec 24  Dec 25
S1 or greater   25%     20%     20%

Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists on 23
Dec, decreasing to a slight chance on 24-25 Dec, due to flare potential
from Regions 2241 (S10W47) and 2242 (S17W71).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 22 2014 0149 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 23-Dec 25 2014

              Dec 23        Dec 24        Dec 25
R1-R2           80%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   35%           30%           30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to flare potential from Regions 2241
(S10W47) and 2242 (S17W71).




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