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671 FXXX10 KWNP 021231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Sep 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 02-Sep 04 2014 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 3 2 2 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 3 15-18UT 2 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced, but below alert threshold levels (S1-Minor) for the next three days (02-04 Sep) following the large flare event on the non-Earth side of the sun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 R1-R2 20% 20% 35% R3 or greater 1% 1% 5% Rationale: There is a slight chance for (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio blackouts over the next two days (02-03 Sep) with Regions 2149 or 2152 being the likely sources. By day three (04 Sep), the chance for an R1-R2 event will increase as old Region 2139 (N15, L=053) returns.