weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  
[Printable]
319
FXXX10 KWNP 301230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 30-Feb 01 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 30-Feb 01 2015

            Jan 30     Jan 31     Feb 01
00-03UT        3          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        3          4          4
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        1          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are forecast for January 30-31
in response to a recurrent high speed solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2015

              Jan 30  Jan 31  Feb 01
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm over the next three days as Region 2268 rotates into an
increasingly geoeffective position.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 30 2015 0044 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2015

              Jan 30        Jan 31        Feb 01
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a
chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event through the forecast period
(30 Jan-01 Feb) due to flare activity from Regions 2268 and 2277.




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE