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076
FXXX10 KWNP 200031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 20-Oct 22 2014

            Oct 20     Oct 21     Oct 22
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        3          3          3
06-09UT        2          4          4
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014

              Oct 20  Oct 21  Oct 22
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance of
reaching S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over the next three
days (20-22 Oct) due to the potential for major flare activity from
large and complex Region 2192.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 19 2014 0503 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 20-Oct 22 2014

              Oct 20        Oct 21        Oct 22
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) solar flare radio blackout
activity is likely with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater)
solar flare radio blackout activity over the next three days (20-22
Oct). Region 2192 is expected to be the likely source of any subsequent
major flare
activity.




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