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314 FXXX10 KWNP 171231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Sep 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 17-Sep 19 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 17-Sep 19 2014 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 00-03UT 3 3 3 03-06UT 1 3 2 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 0 2 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 2 1 2 18-21UT 3 1 2 21-00UT 4 2 3 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2014 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 S1 or greater 5% 5% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2014 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 R1-R2 30% 30% 20% R3 or greater 5% 5% 1% Rationale: There is a chance for (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio blackouts for the next two days (17-18 Sep). After the departure of Regions 2157 (S15W88, Cai/beta) and 2158, only a slight chance for (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio blackouts will remain on day three (19 Sep), as solar activity remains likely to be low.