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809
FXXX10 KWNP 181231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

            Dec 18     Dec 19     Dec 20
00-03UT        1          2          4
03-06UT        1          2          4
06-09UT        1          2          3
09-12UT        1          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          4          2

Rationale: Slightly enhanced geomagnetic field conditions are expected
to begin late on 19 Dec, with a chance for isolated minor storm periods
(G1-Minor) due to the arrival of the CME associated with the M8 flare
observed on 17 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

              Dec 18  Dec 19  Dec 20
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) due to the potential for a proton producing solar event
from Regions 2241 or 2242.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 17 2014 1901 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

              Dec 18        Dec 19        Dec 20
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackout levels are expected for
the next three days (18-20 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 continue to
grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic structures.
There is also a chance for an isolated (R3-Strong) radio blackout event
during the forecast period.




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