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603 FXXX10 KWNP 221231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2014 Nov 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 22-Nov 24 2014 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 22-Nov 24 2014 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 00-03UT 3 4 4 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 2 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 3 3 3 21-00UT 4 3 3 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2014 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 S1 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 22-Nov 24 2014 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity is likely with a chance for an (R3/Strong or greater) radio blackout for the forecast period (22-24 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for significant flare production.