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314
FXXX10 KWNP 171231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 17-Sep 19 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 17-Sep 19 2014

            Sep 17     Sep 18     Sep 19
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        1          3          2
06-09UT        0          2          2
09-12UT        0          2          2
12-15UT        2          1          2
15-18UT        2          1          2
18-21UT        3          1          2
21-00UT        4          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2014

              Sep 17  Sep 18  Sep 19
S1 or greater    5%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2014

              Sep 17        Sep 18        Sep 19
R1-R2           30%           30%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio
blackouts for the next two days (17-18 Sep). After the departure of
Regions 2157 (S15W88, Cai/beta) and 2158, only a slight chance for
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) radio blackouts will remain on day three (19
Sep), as solar activity remains likely to be low.




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