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FXXX12 KWNP 251231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low.  Only low level C-class flares were observed
originating from the NW limb as well as Region 2268 (S10E40,
Eki/beta-gamma).  Region 2268 was relatively stable over the period.
New flux emergence was observed in the NE quadrant and was numbered
Region 2271 (N18E15, Bxo/beta).  The rest of the spotted regions were
relatively stable.  At approximately 24/1300 UTC, a filament eruption
was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery in the SE quadrant near S18.  We are
currently waiting on further coronagraph imagery to determine if a
coronal mass ejection was associated with the event.

Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly low levels with a chance
for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flaring over the next three days
(25-27 Jan). The most likely source for any significant flare activity
is Region 2268 and the return of old Region 2257 (N07, L=322) on or
about 26 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 136 pfu at 24/1725 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
forecast to be at normal to moderate levels through days one and two
(25-26 Jan). Moderate to high levels are expected by day three (27 Jan)
due to effects from an enhanced wind stream associated with the southern
polar coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(25-27 Jan).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels over the period with
wind speeds ranging from 340 km/s to 402 km/s.  Total field ranged from
1 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT.  Phi
angle was consistently negative (towards) throughout the period.

Late on the 25th, an increase in wind speed, total field strength, and
periods of enhanced negative Bz are expected as high speed winds from
the large southern polar coronal hole are expected at the ACE satellite.
Disturbed conditions are expected through day two (26 Jan). By day three
(27 Jan), a gradual relaxation in solar wind parameters are expected.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated high latitude
active period observed midday on 24 Jan.

Late on the 25th, and through day two (26 Jan), effects from the large
southern polar coronal hole are expected to interact with the
geomagnetic field. Quiet to active conditions are expected both days,
with minor storm (NOAA Scale G1) levels likely late on 25 Jan.  Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (27 Jan).

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