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672
FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2152 (S16W05,
Eac/beta-gamma)produced a C2/Sf flare at 02/0059 UTC, the largest flare
of the period, as well as other low level C-class flares. This region
continued to grow, primarily in its intermediate spot area. Region 2153
(S10W31, Dao/beta) also grew significantly during the period, mainly in
its leader spot area. The remaining spot groups were stable and appeared
to be fairly stable.

A Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1,094 km/s) was observed at
01/2211 UTC along with a Type IV sweep associated with an eruption off
the east limb. No flare accompanied the event and the resulting CME
appears to be headed well east of the Sun-Earth line. Two additional
CMEs were observed in Lasco C2 imagery departing the east limb. The
first became visible at 01/2224 UTC, with the second one first showing
at 02/0236 UTC. Both appear to have an eastward trajectory, resulting in
likely non-Earth directed CMEs. There was also a faint, partial halo CME
that became visible in the Lasco C2 imagery at approximately 01/2136
UTC. This CME had a mostly northwesterly trajectory, but will be modeled
as soon as imagery is available.

The other notable feature on the visible disk was a nearly 38 degree
long filament, centered near N19W10, that appeared to be beginning to
lift off from the corona. At the time of this discussion, it had not
erupted nor lifted off, but will be monitored closely.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next two days (02-03
Sep) with Regions 2149 or 2152 being the likely sources.  By day three
(04 Sep), the chance for an R1-R2 event will increase as old Region 2139
(N15, L=053) returns.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels,
reaching a peak flux value of 3504 pfu at 01/1515 UTC.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated due to the large,
non-Earth sided event, but remained below alert threshold levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels for the next three days (02-04 Sep).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced, but below alert
threshold levels (S1-Minor) for the next three days (02-04 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment continued to reflect the influence of a
waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Speeds began the period
near 450 km/s but steadily decreased to near 400 km/s by the end of the
period. The IMF total field strength remained fairly consistent near 6
nT, while IMF Bz fluctuated between +6 to -6 nT. Phi angle was positive
(away) throughout.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (02-04 Sep) due to continued but weakening CH HSS influence.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain in the 375-475 km/s range while
the CH HSS is in geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with minor to
major storm levels observed at high latitudes.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for active conditions,
are expected for days one and two (02-03 Sep) due to weakening CH HSS
influence. Another positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream
may become geoeffective on day three (04 Sep), bringing unsettled
conditions with an increased chance for active levels.




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