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FXXX12 KWNP 240031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 2192 (S14W06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an M1/1f flare (R1-Minor) at 23/0950 UTC. The region shows
signs of separation between its leader and trailer spots although it
continued to grow and remained magnetically complex. All other regions
on the disk were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares are expected with a chance for R3 (Strong)
activity over the next three days (24-26 Oct) due to flare potential
from Region 2192.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high, reaching 6,900
pfu at 23/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (24-26 Oct). There is a chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) level
for the next three days (24-26 Oct) as Region 2192 moves into an
increasingly threatening position on the solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflected relatively nominal
conditions over the past 24 hours. Wind speed remained mostly in the
400-460 km/s range. Phi remained positive, while Bt remained at or
below 6 nT.  The Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT.

An equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
is expected to be reflected at ACE over the next three days (24-26 Oct)
if it is well connected.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to extended
periods of negative Bz.

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels,
with a slight chance for a minor storm period, on day one (24 Oct) with
the onset of the next CH HSS. Conditions are expected to diminish to
quiet to unsettled levels by day two (25 Oct) and into day three (26

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