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FXXX12 KWNP 260031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. A few low-level C-class
enhancements occurred over the period. Region 2209 (S15W81,
Fko/beta-gamma-delta) remains the region of greatest interest, before it
rotates off the solar disk tomorrow. All other regions were largely
unremarkable. A few small filament eruptions were observed via GONG
H-alpha and SDO/AIA 193 imagery, though none were determined to be on a
Sun-Earth line.

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels. A chance remains for an
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), during the period (26-28 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2217 appear to be the most likely sources for any
significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (26-28 Nov). There remains a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold for day one (26 Nov),
before Region 2209 completely transits off the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal. Solar
wind speed averaged 340 km/s through the period. Phi was positive, the
total field was steady around 5 nT, and Bz was at or above -5 nT.

The latest WSA and WSA-Enlil solar wind predictions suggest a recurrent
negative polarity extension of the southern polar coronal hole is
expected to produce a weak high speed stream that may become
geoeffective on day one (26 Nov). Forecast wind speeds near 500 km/s
during are expected for days one and two (26-27 Nov). Day three (28 Nov)
should see solar winds wane in recovery to ambient backgrounds.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels in response to the nominal
solar wind conditions.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next
two days (26-27 Nov), due to a high speed stream expected to become
geoeffective on the 26th. Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for day
three (28 Nov), as CH conditions wane.

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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