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374
FXXX12 KWNP 310031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a
C3/Sf at 30/0456 UTC from Region 2149 (N09W50, Dhc/beta). Region
2149 continued its trend of southern spot group development and was
responsible for additional C-class flare activity. Region 2152 (S17E27,
Dai/beta-gamma) also showed signs of growth and produced multiple
C-class flares. In addition, Region 2152 displayed increased magnetic
complexity and separation between its leader and follower spots. The
other two numbered sunspots were magnetically simple and lacked
significant flare production. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) observed in satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (31 Aug-02 Sep).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels, reaching a peak of 1510 pfu at 30/1550 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days
(31 Aug-02 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (31 Aug-02 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of continued coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds were relatively
steady in the 400-450 km/s range. IMF total field values were steady
ranging between 2 to 8 nT while Bz reached a maximum southern extend of
-7 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (31 Aug-02 Sep) due continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
the next two days (31 Aug-01 Sep) due to the continued influence from
multiple positive polarity CH HSSs. By day three (02 Sep), quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected as CH HSS effects lessen.




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