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099
FXXX12 KWNP 220032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 22 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate.  Region 2192 (S15E26, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced two M-class(NOAA Scale R1, minor) flares and several C-class
events. Both events were impulsive M1 events and occurred at 20/2255 UTC
and 20/1338 UTC. Region 2192 continued to grow, reaching approximately
2410 micro-hemispheres today. The remaining three spotted regions were
stable or decaying. A faint, southward biased, CME was observed in LASCO
C2 just before the period began, yesterday at around 20/2100 UTC. The
source region is estimated to be near Region 2192, though no actual
source event could be definitively identified. Without STEREO images, it
is not certain that this was even a front side event. Regardless, the
speed of this event (~300 km/s) was well below ambient background solar
wind speeds. Due to the faintness, and a slow speed, little to no impact
is expected further this week. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate levels.  There is a slight but
persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over the next
three days (22-24 Oct) from this same region.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels peaking at 2240
pfu at 21/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (22-24 Oct).  There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm level over the next three days (22-24 Oct)
as Region 2192 moves into a more favorable position on the solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind measurements at the ACE spacecraft reflected the continued
influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS).  Wind speed began around 500 km/s and increased to a peak near 675
km/s at around  21/1100 UTC and to before decreasing to an average of
580 km/s by the end of the period.  Phi remained positive.  Bt was at or
below 10 nT while Bz fluctuated between 7 and -9 nT.

.Forecast...
The influence of high speed solar wind streams is expected to persist
over the next three days (22-24 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels (below NOAA
Scale G1 - minor) in response to a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active
conditions, with a slight chance for a minor storm period, for days one
through 3 (22-24 Oct) as high speed stream effects continue.




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