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452
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. Region 2192 (S12E06, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an X1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 22/1428 UTC with an associated
200 sfu Tenflare. Careful analysis of SDO and SOHO/LASCO imagery
suggested that there was not a CME associated with this event. Region
2192 also produced two M-class events (an R1-Minor and an R2-Moderate)
during the period. The region continued to grow and SDO magnetogram
imagery indicated emerging positive flux within the large trailer spot
cluster.

An M1 flare was observed at 22/1557 UTC off the southeast limb
associated with a Bright Surge on the Limb (BSL) and a Type II radio
sweep (1469 km/s). The CME is well off the Sun-Earth line and is not
expected to be geoeffective.

New Region 2195 (N08E70, Dso/beta) was numbered today as it rotated onto
the northeast limb and it appears there are more trailer spots to
follow. All other regions on the disk were relatively stable and quiet.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares are expected with R3 (Strong) activity
likely over the next three days (23-25 Oct) due to an increase in
magnetic complexity within Region 2192.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high, reaching 11,815
pfu at 22/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the next three days (23-25 Oct). There is a chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) for
the next three days (23-25 Oct) as Region 2192 moves into an
increasingly threatening position on the solar disk over the remainder
of the period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflected the waning influence of a
high speed solar wind stream. Speed declined through the period,
beginning near 570 km/s, reaching a peak speed of 592 km/s at 22/0039
UTC, and ending near 450 km/s. Phi remained positive, Bt was at or below
6 nT, and Bz never dipped below -5 nT.

.Forecast...
There are two coronal holes currently analyzed using SDO/AIA 193
imagery. The first is located in the far west and extends from the high
northern latitudes to the equator. The second is located in the
equatorial region, extending from the central meridian to the west. The
observations at ACE may indicate the departure of the first (northern)
coronal hole. The second is not far behind and is expected to be
reflected at ACE over the next three days (23-25 Oct).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels (Below G1-Minor) in
response to a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active
conditions, with a slight chance for a minor storm period, for days one
through three (23-25 Oct) as high speed stream effects persist.




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