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FXXX12 KWNP 161231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Apr 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2035 (S17E18, Fkc/beta-gamma)
produced multiple C-class events, including a C7/Sf at 15/1759 UTC. This
region continued to exhibit growth throughout the period and continued
to be the most active spot group on the visible disk. Region 2036
(S18W01, Dkc/beta-gamma) also produced multiple C-class flares, and grew
in both areal coverage and magnetic complexity during the period. Region
2037 (S10W06, Dai/beta-gamma) produced C3/Sf flare at 16/0159 UTC. The
remainder of the disk was relatively quiet and stable. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-Minor) for the next three
days (16 - 18 Apr) as Regions 2034, 2035, 2036, and 2037 maintain
increased magnetic complexities.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (16 - 18
Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, continued to
exhibit a decreasing trend throughout the period. Speeds decreased from
365 km/s to near 310 km/s by the end of the period. IMF Bt ranged from
1-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was
oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector, with periodic
oscillations into the positive (away) sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal for day one (16 Apr).
Enhanced solar wind parameters, including modest speed and Bt increases,
are expected on days two and three (17 - 18 Apr) due to
possible recurrent activity.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Mostly quiet levels are expected for day one (16 Apr), with quiet to
unsettled levels forecast for days two and three (17 - 18 Apr) in
response to possible recurrent enhancements in solar wind parameters.

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