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FXXX12 KWNP 301231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at high levels as Region 2192 (S15W87,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) added yet another M-class (R1-minor) flare,
totaling seven M-class events over the past 24 hours. The largest was an
M3 flare at 30/0135 UTC. Continuing its trend, no radio emissions
indicative of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and no significant
Earth-directed eruptions were noted. Evaluation of Region 2192 becomes
increasingly difficult as it approaches the limb, but reports from
ground observatories and loops of SDO imagery suggest the region may
have grown smaller but retains its complex magnetic characteristics.

New Regions 2199 (S18E30, Csi/beta), 2200 (S18E54, Hax/alpha), and 2201
(S06E70, Hax/alpha) were numbered during the period. All three were
observed by the solar optical observing network site in Learmonth,
Australia as well as on SDO HMI intensitygram imagery. The remaining
regions were generally stable or exhibited signs of decay.

As Region 2192 completes its transition around the west limb, combined
with the relatively benign nature of the remaining regions on the disk,
flare probabilities are expected to decline. Day 1 (30 Oct) keeps M-
flares (R1-R2 radio blackouts) likely early in the period with a
lingering chance for an X-class event (R3 or greater radio blackout).
By day 2 (31 Oct), there is only a chance for an M-flare and slight
chance for an X-class event as Region 2192 completes its transition
around the limb. By day 3 (01 Nov), C-class flares are likely, with only
a slight chance of an M-class event.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels when flux
crossed the 1000 pfu threshold to peak at 1470 pfu at 29/1725 UTC.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
high levels for the next three days (30 Oct - 01 Nov).  There is a
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at or above the S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storm level on day 1 (30 Oct), decreasing to a slight
chance for day 2 (31 Oct) as Region 2192 departs.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected nominal
conditions for the majority of the period. Solar winds saw a brief
increase to near 425 km/s just after the beginning of the period, but
quickly recovered to a steady average near 340 km/s. Total field values
remained steady between 4 nT and 6 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/- 5 nT,
and the Phi angle remained mostly positive. Just after 30/0730 UTC, Phi
transitioned to a negative orientation as wind speed and density both
saw a slight increase, while temperature simultaneously decreased. Bt
decreased to 4 nT and Bz increased to near +1 nT at the same time.

The negative polarity coronal hole features, mentioned in the previous
discussion and captured by the WSA-Enlil model, are expected to reflect
a CH HSS over the next three days (30 Oct - 01 Nov).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Day 1 (30 Oct) is expected to see quiet to unsettled conditions, with a
chance for active levels, in response to a solar sector boundary
crossing and onset of the coronal hole high speed stream. Generally
quiet to unsettled conditions, with a continued chance for active levels
are expected through day 2 (31 Oct). By day three (01 Nov), mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with a slight chance for an active

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