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[Printable]
881
FXUS64 KCRP 241138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE MVFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT AT KVCT (WERE FOR A
WHILE) BUT AM EXPECTING THEM TO COME BACK. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
VFR NO LATER THAN 16Z (ACCORDING TO FORECAST). QUICK LOOK AT NEW
SOUNDING DATA (NOT SENT YET) INDICATES 1000 AND 2000 FOOT WINDS
ARE BELOW 20 KNOTS OR SO...SO REMOVED WIND SHEAR IN KVCT TERMINAL.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE 12Z TERMINAL FORECAST IS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FOG AND CIGS...AS WINDS (SURFACE AND ALOFT) DECREASE WITH
BOUNDARY APPROACHING AND FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH (KEEPING AREA IN
GOOD MOISTURE). FOR NOW...AM GOING WITH LIFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT
(AND 1-2 SM BR)...IFR CIGS AT KCRP AND MVFR CIGS AT KLRD...
OCCURRING AFTER 25/06Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH
MAIN ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES...NOT VERY HIGH BUT 4 KM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT (NSSL WRF AND
TTU MODELS). THUS...WILL GO WITH A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED (THAT IS WHAT THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING TOO)...AS MID LEVEL DRYING STARTS TO GET RATHER
GOOD. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED CELL. LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN AREAS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. JUST
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY AND PROBABLY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIE DOWN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FLOW SHOULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE BY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHEAST WIND
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD ARE WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY CONVECTION AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES...H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE REGION...AND SERLY LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH BETTER CHANCES EXISTING TO THE NNW OF
CWA. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...A THERMAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EMERGE EAST OUT OF OLD MX WITH STRONG ADIABATIC
WARMING PROCESSES RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL RETREAT DURING THE
EVENING/SUN NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT THE DIURNAL PROCESS ON MONDAY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
EITHER AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMP THRESHOLDS...BUT FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS DUE TO VERY ISOLATED NATURE. A DRY
SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...BUT GIVEN
DRY AIRMASS AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS /VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS/ SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON CAA DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  69  88  69  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          89  65  87  68  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            99  71  97  72  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             93  67  91  69  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          84  69  82  72  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  66  93  70  93  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        91  68  88  71  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  69  82  71  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






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