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[Printable]
752
FXUS64 KCRP 290921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...RATHER HOT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMES DRAPED
OVERHEAD. SSWERLY WIND COMPONENT IN LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET THIS
MORNING SHOULD AID IN RAPID WARMING TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TODAY...BUT PROXIMITY OF
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS NE
ZONES...WHICH MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
MID/LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM. OVERALL...VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. UNSEASONABLY DRY MOISTURE PROFILE IS
PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PWATS OVERNIGHT TO
FALL TO NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THUS...MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS
TONIGHT AND CURRENT FORECAST MIN TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE /SLIGHTLY BETTER NOCTURNAL MIXING TONIGHT PRECLUDES
GOING WITH COOLER TEMPS ATTM/. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT. PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SEABREEZE PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BE IMPACTED BY UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST...WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING
ORIENTED N-S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO DO TWO
THINGS. FIRST...BRING BETTER MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY
ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SECOND...IT WILL BRING DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DURING THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO...EXCEPT WILL MOVE
POPS UP BY 12 HOURS BASED ON BOUNDARY POSITION AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...WITH OVER 2
INCH PWATS OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
BOUNDARY IN PLACE (ALBEIT WEAK) AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (CAP ERODES
TOO)...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY TO CHANCE OVER THE NORTH AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTH. THEN...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH AND CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND THUS RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
(AND THAT MAY BE OVER-DONE...BUT ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE BETTER
MOISTURE LONGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST). WARM AND HUMID AGAIN THURSDAY
BEFORE THE SUBTLE COOL-DOWN BEGINS... MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY
COME BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR A CHANGE. THUS...A FEW CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH RAIN COMING IN A BIT FASTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    99  74  97  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         102  75  99  76  97  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO           106  79 105  80 105  /   0   0  10  10  10
ALICE            103  74 101  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  81  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  74 103  76 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  74 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       93  80  93  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





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