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033
FXUS64 KCRP 171321
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
821 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTING LIFR CEILINGS AT KLRD
NECESSITATED A TAF CORRECTION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY 15Z...AND MAY SHIFT BETWEEN CATEGORIES IN THE INTERIM...SO A
TEMPO GROUP WITH BKN003 HAS BEEN ADDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM CRP-VCT. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING PREVAILING
VFR. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S-SE 10-15
KTS...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGE IS POSITIONED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY PULL TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
DESPITE THIS...MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWATS ROUGHLY NEAR 2.3 INCHES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN...PUSHING FURTHER INLAND
ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE. QUIET PERIODS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT A BIT
HIGHER RESEMBLING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND TRACK OF H5 VORTICITY MAXIMUMS. BOTH ECMWF/GFS
HINT THAT RIDGING SHOULD BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY/THURS WITH
LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS AND GREATER DPVA ACROSS OUR CWA. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY CONVECTION AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST IN THE H9 TO H6
LAYER. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BECOME JUMBLED REGARDING HANDLING OF A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. ECMWF WANTS TO GRADUALLY BRING A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH /FOLLOWED BY ACTUAL COLD FRONT/ THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS DELAYS FROPA UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF GIVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN ANY OF THE
GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES NEXT WEEK
DEPENDENT UPON FROPA PASSAGE/TIMING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  78  91  77  91  /  50  20  30  20  50
VICTORIA          89  75  90  76  93  /  50  30  40  20  50
LAREDO            94  77  95  78  96  /  50  30  20  20  30
ALICE             92  76  93  76  93  /  50  20  40  10  50
ROCKPORT          87  79  88  78  90  /  50  30  30  30  50
COTULLA           92  75  94  76  95  /  50  30  20  20  30
KINGSVILLE        92  77  93  77  93  /  40  20  40  10  50
NAVY CORPUS       87  80  88  79  89  /  50  30  30  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

IB/90...AVIATION






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