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130
FXUS64 KCRP 290003 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODEL PROFILE
SOUNDINGS INTRODUCE 1K-3K FT STRATUS ROUGHLY AFTER 09Z. WITH
PROFILES LOOKING A BIT DRY...MAINTAINED PREVAILING SCT...WITH
TEMPO BKN MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEXT CONCERN FOCUSES ON WIND
SHEAR. A 30-35KT LLJ SETS UP ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE WITH WINDSHEAR MAINLY
AFFECTING ALI-VCT...AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST OF LRD AND ELEVATED SFC WINDS AT CRP SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIND SHEAR. VFR TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. DID PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO COOL TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW...MOISTURE INCREASES TO AOA 1 INCH PWATS OVER THE
COASTAL BEND REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS BY THEN...WITH ECMWF SHOWING
A WEAKER SOLUTION AND GFS/NAM/CANADIAN SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOLUTION (AND DO MEAN SLIGHTLY)...WITH THE LATTER MODELS SHOWING
SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT
QUITE SATURATED YET...AND UPGLIDE IS STILL SHOWING SOME CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER MOST LOCATIONS. AM TEMPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
RAIN CHANCES...BUT DECIDED TO PUT A LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY (20 POPS) OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND AREAS AND NEARSHORE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE DRY FORECAST
REMAINDER OF AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AM EXPECTING WINDS TO
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE...CLOUDS
AND WINDS INCREASING SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN SATURDAY WHICH WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GULF WINDS INCREASE
TONIGHT TO SCEC LEVELS...AND TO NEAR SCA LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY...EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE OF BELOW 80 ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY DURING THE DAY. FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE
COAST AROUND SUNSET. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING. MAX PWAT NEAR THE COAST LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1.25 INCH VICINITY. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THINK
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED. HAVE KEPT JUST 20 POPS OVER
EASTERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 POPS NEAR
VICTORIA. THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT MEANS WE LIKELY
WILL NOT CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEEK IS ANTICIPATED. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE...ALBEIT
BRIEFLY...AND ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. MAX
AND MIN TEMPS BOTH GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    59  79  65  80  63  /  10  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          56  78  63  78  62  /  10  10  20  20  10
LAREDO            56  82  63  82  61  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             55  82  63  80  61  /  10  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  76  65  75  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
COTULLA           52  79  59  80  58  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        56  81  64  80  62  /  10  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  76  67  77  66  /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






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