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235
FXUS64 KCRP 021134
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS HAS MAINLY
BEEN LIMITED TO REGION FROM HEBBRONVILLE NORTH TO PLEASANTON AND
NEAR LAREDO. COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL AREA ALTER THIS MORNING. KCRP RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATER THIS
MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO THE NORTH THROUGH LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH THE INLAND TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z.
DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND BY
08Z COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






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