weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  
[Printable]
715
FXUS64 KCRP 271137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY BR HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUND FOR
MVFR VSBYS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL BEND/PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AT THE CRP/VCT TAF SITE WHERE VCSH
AND VCTS REMARKS WERE INCLUDED. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST
ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 2.00
INCH PW ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING A GOOD BIT OF
WIND SHEAR SO CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATER
AND COASTAL BEND REGION. POPS RANGE FROM NON-MENTIONABLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST WHERE NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS SET BACK A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING AND GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW MAINLY CONFINED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SEA BREEZE. MODELS
PROG A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IF
ANY. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BEGINNING TO REACH TO 105-109F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  78  93  78  92  /  40  30  40  30  40
VICTORIA          96  76  94  76  94  /  50  30  40  30  40
LAREDO           102  80 101  80  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             97  76  97  77  94  /  30  20  40  30  30
ROCKPORT          91  80  90  80  89  /  50  40  40  30  40
COTULLA          100  77 101  76  98  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        97  76  96  77  94  /  40  20  40  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       90  81  89  80  88  /  50  40  40  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE