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812
FXUS64 KCRP 211725 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KLRD...BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS TODAY WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER O1Z EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 08Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOG POSSIBLE AT
KALI AND KLRD SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION.
KVCT WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS REDUCED TO AROUND 4 MILES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. AFTER 15Z ALL SITES BACK TO VFR AND EASTERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PERIODS
GOING FORWARD. ZFP...AFM..AND PFM PRODUCTS ISSUED TO ELIMINATE THE
MENTION OF MORNING FOG FOR A FEW COUNTIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO POOL HIGHER CLOUD CONCENTRATIONS AND THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE MESO-SCALE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
CONFINED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO
FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

EWX FORECASTERS:
ML...SHORT TERM
MO...LONG TERM







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