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851
FXUS64 KCRP 241114 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASTERN TAFS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS MAY PICK UP A TAD
WITH IT TOO...BUT NOTHING ABOVE 11 KNOTS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TOO DRY
NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SHOWERS...AND THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS (MOISTENS UP 700MB AND ABOVE TONIGHT). PRETTY
POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND JET IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...AND MOISTURE 700MB AND ABOVE DUE TO LIFT MAY PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER EXTREME EASTERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS
(MAINLY CLOUDS THOUGH). HOWEVER...SINCE SPRINKLES WILL NOT MENTION.
WILL GO WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING AS THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE SOME SUN AT
LEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN AREA GETS ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
UPPER SYSTEM. AM GOING TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. WIND FORECAST GENERALLY A BLEND OF RUC13 AND
NAM12 FOR THE MORNING...THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM AND MOS FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL ADJUST SCA TO KEEP THE
NEARSHORE IN A BIT LONGER (TIL ABOUT NOON)...AND THE OFFSHORE TIL
ABOUT 5 PM...GIVEN WIND AND WAVE FORECAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON HAVING AN SCA FOR THAT AT THIS TIME SINCE 3RD PERIOD AND
WINDS AND WAVES WILL TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT (AND BORDERLINE SCA AT
THAT). WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A PEEK AT THIS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY BENIGN
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT A FEW DETAILS TO
CONSIDER IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD BE CLEARING
OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT...IF NOT ALREADY CLEARED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN WITH REINFORCING RIDGE WITH PWATS
WELL BELOW HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRI EVENING AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENT THAT AIR WILL STILL BE DRY FOR FRIDAY EVENING SHORT
WAVE...BUT SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POPS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED LATE IN THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WITH A MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST...NOT
THINKING TOO HIGHLY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FOR THE WEEK SHOULD BE WAVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  45  69  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  41  70  /   0  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            68  48  69  41  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             67  43  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  48  65  52  69  /   0  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           66  42  67  39  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        68  44  69  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  52  68  50  69  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






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