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141
FXUS65 KVEF 010434 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
935 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY,
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY DRY
AIR MASS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS COVERED WELL IN FORECAST, NO UPDATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
212 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUITE WEATHER THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
BY WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THE CWA WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOVING UP THE BAJA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHICH COULD BRING A SURGE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND NEVER REALLY
DROPS THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION WHICH WOULD ALLOW EASIER ACCESS FOR
THE MOISTURE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH
THE TROUGH AND BRINGS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE CWA. BOTH
MODELS ARE PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF QPF INTO ARIZONA AND
AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 15. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AT THIS TIME KEPT THEM AT SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS COULD CERTAINLY
TREND UPWARD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH WINDS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH WINDS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
AND MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
HARRISON/GORELOW

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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