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520
FXUS65 KVEF 220952
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
152 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL CAUSE WARM CONDITIONS TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE SIERRA
TODAY AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY STRONG [160-170KT] JET OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON/NORCAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND SHOULD MAINLY BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THAT SAID...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE SIERRA AS WELL AS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY.
AS FOR THE WINDS...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY NOON AND 7 PM THIS
EVENING ALONG THE CREST AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...PRIMARILY
ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE CORE OF THE PEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY MOVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME STAYING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH BEGINNING TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S PACKAGE AND STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WORTH MENTIONING IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS [OVER 70 MPH] NEAR THE HIGHER PEAKS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT BEST. IN ANY CASE IT WOULD BE AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INYO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE TODAY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN MOHAVE DESERT. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BEHIND A
WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH FROM TONOPAH AROUND 00Z SOUTH
TO LAKE HAVASU BY ROUGHLY 12Z. THAT PLACES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-08Z [JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT]. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD WIND
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NECESSARY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY MORNING WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MAY REACH AT
LEAST LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN STATES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY IN
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RISE A BIT TODAY BEFORE FALLING 5-10
DEGREES SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER WILL HAVE NO IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS FOR THOSE HEADING IN AND OUT OF VEGAS.
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALL MODELS START TO
BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY BUT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THE VALLEYS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF INVERSIONS
WHICH WILL INHIBIT MIXING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, 61 DEGREES IS THE
NORMAL HIGH FOR LAS VEGAS ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR
68. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT WILL
ENJOY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A NORTH WIND WILL LINGER DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER SOUTH OF
LAKE MOHAVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN LESSEN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS MAINLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WIND CONDITIONS LIKELY FAVORING A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT 6-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THE FRONT PUSHES THE WINDS TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z-09Z TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 10-16
KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN
DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF WINDS NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. HIGHER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WHERE
GUSTS OVER 45 KTS COULD OCCUR. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE OWENS VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PRESS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KHII.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








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