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296
FXUS65 KVEF 190304
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
804 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
BEING DRY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR GUSTS STILL PERSISTING IN PARTS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. I
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND REDUCED CLOUDS...EXCEPT IN ESMERALDA COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY. MUCH DRIER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
805 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS LESS COMPLICATED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
DRY AIR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES...WHICH IS NOTICEABLE
IN THE CUMULUS FIELD THAT DEVELOPED. STILL...THESE ARE STRUGGLING
AND ONCE DIURNAL HEATING WANES SO TOO WILL ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL DRYING TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
BUT CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. WE COULD ALSO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BEGIN PULLING MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR OUR TERRAIN ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL AS
THE SIERRA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CHANCES THEN SHIFT NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THICKNESSES ALOFT DECREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL READING ARE LIKELY SATURDAY FOR AREAS UNDER THICKER
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED JET. THIS COULD HELP
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. THERE WAS NO MODEL
GENERATED QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SO
REMOVED MENTION OF WEATHER THERE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR WHETHER IT REMAINS
CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS, TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN VEGAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD THEN BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...YET WINDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONFIG 1. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN 10 KTS/ FRIDAY MORNING AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND IN NYE COUNTY...WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER....SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER










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