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306
FXUS65 KVEF 200409
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
909 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL
ACT UPON MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS MADE DURING THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE THE STORMS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...HEADING FOR
SOUTHWEST UTAH. SHOWERS THAT WERE NEAR NIPTON AND SEARCHLIGHT HAVE
MOVED NORTH AND DISSIPATED AROUND JEAN. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR BAKER...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND REMNANT INSTABILITY. THESE SEEM TO LAST ONLY ABOUT
45 MINUTES. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S UNDER THOSE
SHOWERS...NOT SURE MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND. THE LATEST HRRR /02Z
RUN/ DOES SHOW THESE SHOWERS BUT DISSIPATES THEM RATHER
QUICKLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
550 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND POPS WEST INTO EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHERN CLARK FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS FARTHER WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THAT AREA. NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THAT BOUNDARY AND...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY...EXPECT A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR /22Z RUN/ DOES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO UTAH.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
NIPTON TO SEARCHLIGHT TO LAUGHLIN.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
217 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUSY AFTERNOON. EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WORKED OVER LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES...DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARED OUT MOST OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND THE NARROW WEDGE IN BETWEEN OVER FAR
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND WESTERN MOHAVE HAS LIT
UP WITH BIG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE WEST
COAST DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK
TO THE WEST AND BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO HIKO. THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW STORMS THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW. SOME STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH
THE LOW NEARBY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
THEREAFTER. I DID EXPAND POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOW ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. BASICALLY
KEEPING POPS IN EAST OF A PIOCHE...MT. CHARLESTON...MORONGO VALLEY
LINE AND THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. KEPT IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW
OVER THE AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SIGNAL OF RETURNING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS AT THE TERMINAL AT
SOME POINT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK INTO ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW TO HIKO ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BLOWING DUST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATES...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MORGAN
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

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