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448
FXUS65 KVEF 241019
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL DROP TO JUST
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGETOPS LIKE THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS WHILE CLOUDS ALSO
START TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS...CLOUDS...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SIERRA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO AS LOW AS
5000 FEET IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND TO NEAR 6000 FEET IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TRAVEL AREAS. IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS STORM...WIND WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL SHOWING
WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE LAST STORM BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. I ISSUED AND ADVISORY FOR 11 AM TO 11 PM FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES WHERE WINDS FAILED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH THE LAST STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DECREASE...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS STILL OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM FRIDAY
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SATURDAY AND
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COLDER IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS UTAH AND
INTO COLORADO. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SATURDAYS STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO OUR EAST RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMING AND DRYING BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. 700MB TEMPS
REMAIN COOL ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP CLOSER
TO NORMAL ON MONDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST,
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS MAY
HIT LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY IN THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD
CITY AREA. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER AND ALIGNS SHARPLY WITH THE
PACIFIC COAST...ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY DIVE SOUTH AND
CARVE OUT A WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS MIDWEEK
ONWARD...WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. LATEST ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE GFS
IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER. FOR NOW SIDED WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CLOSE TO OR BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. I WENT WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WINDS WILL REACH RED FLAG LEVELS BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS MAINLY 4-8 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER ABOUT 23Z AND REMAIN THERE ALL NIGHT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AOA
20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE MORNING AND THE AROUND
10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HARRISON/OUTLER

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