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[Printable]
661
FXUS63 KUNR 211804
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1104 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. NEXT UPSTREAM TROF
IS NOTED OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF HAS ADVANCED
INTO ERN MT/ERN WY.

TODAY...THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SFC TROF PUSHING
THROUGH WILL SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING ARCTIC AIR AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AIDING IN THE WARMING.

SATURDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS NEXT TROF ADVANCES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN
WARMER AIR TO SPILL INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME PLACES EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS REACHING INTO THE 50S. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BEST LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS NERN WY...THE
BLKHLS...AND NWRN SD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE WRN SD
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHSN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NRN BLKHLS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ENDING OF SNOW WED NIGHT/THANKSGIVING WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. WILL END SNOW BY THANKSGIVING MORNING
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY WEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26







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