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[Printable]
402
FXUS65 KTWC 202118
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 PM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS A STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY
NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE OTHER MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN SEEING INCREASED CU
DEVELOPMENT BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW NOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN JUST IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE WILL STILL
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE TO
JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. BY LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES TO OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.
THEREAFTER...WESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. PREFER A SOLUTION
MORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
WOULD BE MORE OF A WIND MAKER THAN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS FAR
SOUTH. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME GIVEN WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 6 AND 7 TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 21/03Z ISOLD CB/TS WITH BASES 6-8KFT AGL NE KSAD.
OTRW FLAT CU WITH BASES AROUND 8-10KFT AGL. AFT 21/03Z SKC. WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW 15 KTS THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON OR 21/21Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. DRY MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

A STRONGER TROF IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON...ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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