157
FXUS65 KTWC 032104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
203 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND BREEZY AT TIMES...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY DRY AND VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS
CLOUDINESS WAS BEING MOVED ALONG BY A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHING NORTHERN
ARIZONA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SO WILL KEEP
LOW POP VALUES GOING FOR TONIGHT IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN. DRY
ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATED THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY SEE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A RATHER DENSE BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER SE AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TO SCT-BKN100 BKN-OVC180 TONIGHT WITH CLEARING MONDAY MORNING.  WEST
WIND 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING THEN
BECOME WEST 5-15 KT AGAIN AFT 18Z/04.   AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THERE WILL BE A
BIT OF A WEST BREEZE MONDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY.  A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SW WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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