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148
FXUS65 KTWC 222207
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
307 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A STORM SYSTEM SKIRTING
NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MAKE FOR A GREAT AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. MIXING
DOWN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MAINLY
EASTERN PORTIONS TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GILA VALLEY AREA STAYING BREEZY INTO TONIGHT.

SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING
JUST OFF THE WESTERN U.S. COAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS TILTS EAST THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN...TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND
CHANGING UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY ORIENTATION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AIR...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHIFT IN
SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COOL DRY
AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BY AROUND 5 DEGREES AROUND THE GREATER TUCSON AREA...AND UP TO
7 TO 10 DEGREES IN EASTERN PORTIONS SUCH AS SAFFORD OR DOUGLAS. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FREEZING CONCERNS FOR SOME AREAS.
EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY CAUSE
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING...POTENTIALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP IN SOME
AREAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN PASS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
NICE BUMP IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR
CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME MODELS SHOW IT SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...EVEN SO...SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO
BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
EXISTS ON THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE SHOWER COVERAGE AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO LOCK ONTO A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
22/01Z...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. AS MIXING INCREASES
TUESDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS LATE CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON WILL RELAX EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS FROM A MORE
NLY/NELY DIRECTION. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN LOWERING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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