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418
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH TSRA POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TSRA COULD AFFECT MAINLY BVO/TUL/RVS THIS
AFTN...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR TO
MAYBE IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT A GIVEN...AT THE AR TERMINALS
TONIGHT BEFORE ANY STORM POTENTIAL ARRIVES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HINT AT THIS WITH A SCT LOW CLOUD GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MORNING STORMS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER
AND DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND
SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY GRAZE KBVO BEFORE THEY HEAD UP INTO
KANSAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET VFR WEATHER DAY. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS DOWN AT KMLC. LOW STRATUS IS STREAMING NORTH
OVER EAST TX...REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO KMLC.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AND TEMPO MENTIONS OF TSRA AT THE
ERN OK SITES AFT 09Z. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT RH PLOTS SHOW LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE NW AR/SE OK SITES LATE TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SCT
LOW CLOUD GROUPS AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL OK NEAR THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED
CELLS IN SW ARKANSAS AT LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH. SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT
PARTS OF NE OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-44...BUT WE SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED TO AND POTENTIAL SFC-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING NEAR WARM FRONT IN KANSAS
LATER TODAY. ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NE OKLAHOMA APPROACHING 90.

A FEW DRY LINE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST...BUT MAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST. EXPECT
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OK. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE BY THU AFTERNOON AS
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND EVENT...PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF WESTERN AR. STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA THU EVENING.

STRONGER SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO OK/AR BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER DAY. TEMPS BY SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND A
FEW UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS OF
NW ARKANSAS OR EXTREME NE OKLAHOMA. A NICE WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW...
WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22






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