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[Printable]
660
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






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