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380
FXUS64 KTSA 231114
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HAVE REPRESENTED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS
AND PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SLIDING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO AS OF 08Z. SHORT TERM HI RES MODELS WERE
FORECASTING TSTORM DVLPMT UP IN THE MO OZARKS AND TRACKING IT
SWWRD INTO NW AR/NE OK. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE IDEA AS
WELL. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY IS ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OVER IN NW/W CNTRL AR AND E CNTRL/SE OK. THERE
IS AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS THEY PLUNGE SWWRD IN THE NERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE VERY
SAUNA-LIKE THIS MORNING...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND THEY ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER. THUS...WITH
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF TILL LATER IN THE DAY...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 RANGE FROM THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED SOME WHERE CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO
BE MET. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING...WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK WITH
THE FRONT. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS TIME A BIT FLATTER IN ORIENTATION THAN
BEFORE...ALLOWING FOR MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKPILE. THIS
SHOWS UP AS A MORE INTENSE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO...IF
NOT TOUCH...THE CENTURY MARK THIS GO AROUND ACROSS NE OK...AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS NOW...THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WEST WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS WILL GAIN A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT...AND A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE BIG
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE BACK INTO
THE 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






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