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432
FXUS64 KTSA 241653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22






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