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330
FXUS63 KTOP 290918
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

The main concern with this forecast period will be the potential
for stratus and or haze developing over parts of eastern KS later
this morning. At the surface there continues to be a decent
pressure gradient across the area, although this gradient is
weaker in north central KS. Southerly winds have contributed to an
increase in moisture over eastern KS due to a fetch from Texas and
eastern OK. It is this moisture that some of the models think will
help form the stratus. What the models seem to be having trouble
with is the high cirrus clouds that continue to overspread from
the west. If these clouds were to break up or dissipate then
radiational cooling could inhibit the stratus. The high level
clouds and mixing have kept temps steady in the mid 40s to near
50. Given the continuous cirrus aloft and surface pressure
gradient have not mentioned stratus or fog into the forecast. The
most likely location for stratus will be along and east of the
turnpike especially near I-35 where dew point depressions are
already relatively low.

Temperatures will also be tricky today if the stratus forms keeping
some areas from getting out of the 50s according to some models. Not
confident in this scenario therefore most locations should get well
into the 60s and near 70 in central KS. Later tonight the strong
cold front will continue pushing south through the central plains.
Models agree it should arrive in northern KS around 09Z and the I-70
corridor by 12Z Sunday. Temperatures will fall behind the front
which will set up a decent gradient in low temperatures. North
central KS should drop to the upper 20s while east central KS stays
in the upper 40s ahead of the front. A few models have indicated low
level saturation coinciding with weak lift moving in behind the
front, but at the moment remains north of the area through 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014

Strong cold front continues to move across eastern Kansas on
Sunday morning and should be through the area by around the noon
hour. Highs are a wide range, from near 30 in the north central to
near 50 in the southeast, but as front comes through and
temperatures drop, as well as the increase in wind speeds,
apparent temperature values will make it feel like its in the
teens to 20s. Models differ in amount of low level saturation with
this front, and layer is quite shallow. However some guidance puts
out a very low amount of QPF across the far eastern counties, and
if front appears to be coming in with associated stratus may need
to consider a very short window of light freezing drizzle for the
east as the front comes through. Overnight lows drop into the
teens, with winds slowly diminishing from north to south through
the day on Monday. Wind chills for the morning commute Monday are
currently forecast from around zero to negative single digits.
Highs on Monday around 30 fall once again down into the teens
overnight.

Tuesday the cold high moves eastward as the next upper trof moves
across the Northern Plains. Southerly flow returns at the surface
and temperatures rise back to around 40. Model differences start
to amplify beyond this forecast period, although seem to be in
general agreement that next boundary to come southward into the
state is not as cold and moderates quickly keeping high
temperatures in the 40s. GFS starts rain chances as early as late
Wednesday while EC is deeper but farther eastward with that
system. Both draw moisture northward off the Gulf coast and have
some lower end chance for rain on Thursday. Kept Friday dry with
a short warmup between systems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Southerly winds will continue much of the night. Main concern will
be whether increasing moisture in eastern KS will lead to
development of IFR stratus deck later tonight into the morning
hours. Appears that best chance will be to east of TAF sites but
there is an outside chance of IFR conditions at TOP and FOE
Saturday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...GDP







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