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330 FXUS63 KTOP 290918 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 318 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014 The main concern with this forecast period will be the potential for stratus and or haze developing over parts of eastern KS later this morning. At the surface there continues to be a decent pressure gradient across the area, although this gradient is weaker in north central KS. Southerly winds have contributed to an increase in moisture over eastern KS due to a fetch from Texas and eastern OK. It is this moisture that some of the models think will help form the stratus. What the models seem to be having trouble with is the high cirrus clouds that continue to overspread from the west. If these clouds were to break up or dissipate then radiational cooling could inhibit the stratus. The high level clouds and mixing have kept temps steady in the mid 40s to near 50. Given the continuous cirrus aloft and surface pressure gradient have not mentioned stratus or fog into the forecast. The most likely location for stratus will be along and east of the turnpike especially near I-35 where dew point depressions are already relatively low. Temperatures will also be tricky today if the stratus forms keeping some areas from getting out of the 50s according to some models. Not confident in this scenario therefore most locations should get well into the 60s and near 70 in central KS. Later tonight the strong cold front will continue pushing south through the central plains. Models agree it should arrive in northern KS around 09Z and the I-70 corridor by 12Z Sunday. Temperatures will fall behind the front which will set up a decent gradient in low temperatures. North central KS should drop to the upper 20s while east central KS stays in the upper 40s ahead of the front. A few models have indicated low level saturation coinciding with weak lift moving in behind the front, but at the moment remains north of the area through 12Z. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2014 Strong cold front continues to move across eastern Kansas on Sunday morning and should be through the area by around the noon hour. Highs are a wide range, from near 30 in the north central to near 50 in the southeast, but as front comes through and temperatures drop, as well as the increase in wind speeds, apparent temperature values will make it feel like its in the teens to 20s. Models differ in amount of low level saturation with this front, and layer is quite shallow. However some guidance puts out a very low amount of QPF across the far eastern counties, and if front appears to be coming in with associated stratus may need to consider a very short window of light freezing drizzle for the east as the front comes through. Overnight lows drop into the teens, with winds slowly diminishing from north to south through the day on Monday. Wind chills for the morning commute Monday are currently forecast from around zero to negative single digits. Highs on Monday around 30 fall once again down into the teens overnight. Tuesday the cold high moves eastward as the next upper trof moves across the Northern Plains. Southerly flow returns at the surface and temperatures rise back to around 40. Model differences start to amplify beyond this forecast period, although seem to be in general agreement that next boundary to come southward into the state is not as cold and moderates quickly keeping high temperatures in the 40s. GFS starts rain chances as early as late Wednesday while EC is deeper but farther eastward with that system. Both draw moisture northward off the Gulf coast and have some lower end chance for rain on Thursday. Kept Friday dry with a short warmup between systems. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1135 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014 Southerly winds will continue much of the night. Main concern will be whether increasing moisture in eastern KS will lead to development of IFR stratus deck later tonight into the morning hours. Appears that best chance will be to east of TAF sites but there is an outside chance of IFR conditions at TOP and FOE Saturday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...GDP