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793
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Southwest edge of main mvfr stratocu deck should remain just
north and east of the KTOP/KFOE terminals thru 21z with a more
scattered area of stratocu in the 4-5 kft foot layer over the TAF
sites before clearing completely by 23z. Stronger diurnal mixing
will promote more sustained gusts as well beyond the 14-15z time
frame. Decreasing northwest winds and clear skies should be the
rule at all terminal sites aft 23z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63







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