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093
FXUS63 KTOP 251736 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







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