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220
FXUS65 KTFX 282036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...The large scale ridge continues to
remain nearly stationary over the Texas-New Mexico region...this
will continue to create a strong monsoonal pattern bringing
moisture and warm temperatures through the first half of the week.
Most of the precipitation will be limited to the mountains of
Southwest Montana...however some isolated thunderstorms may
develop over the Little and Big Belt Mountains. No significant
precipitation is expected with these storms...however some
lighting and gusty winds could develop. Away from any storm that
develops temperatures are expected to be slightly above seasonal
averages...with light winds and limited cloud cover. Suk

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Warm temperatures will persist as
a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over the
Northern Rockies. The combination of Monsoonal moisture and weak
shortwaves propagating through the ridge may trigger at least a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, especially in
areas of higher terrain, such as the Rocky Mountain Front,
southwest and central Montana. Despite the increased chance for
precipitation in these areas, forecast confidence is low regarding
precipitation coverage/amounts as the timing of these shortwaves
and associated moisture remains uncertain. Temperatures through
the forecast period will be near seasonal averages. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1735Z.
High pressure will continue to provide dry and stable conditions.
Mid and high level moisture will continue to increase over southwest
Montana and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountains
after 21z. VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  90  59  89 /  10  10  10  10
CTB  53  89  54  89 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  59  91  60  91 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  54  87  53  88 /  10  20  10  20
WEY  44  75  43  76 /  20  40  30  30
DLN  54  84  54  83 /  10  30  20  30
HVR  56  94  57  93 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  55  88  55  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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