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478
FXUS65 KTFX 241025
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
325 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...Satellite indicates a shortwave east of
the zones and another over the Eastern Pacific approaching the West
Coast. A ridge will build over the region although flow aloft will
remain disturbed. A strong jet will approach the Rockies Monday
ahead of the shortwave and surface winds will become very strong and
gusty across the Northern and Southern Rockies. A high wind warning
will be issued. The airmass will become very moist as this shortwave
continues towards the Rockies. Light snow will move east across the
Rockies tonight and begin a lengthy period of light snow. Periods of
heavier snow by Tuesday will cause significant accumulations over
the Rockies and portions of Central and Southwest Montana. A warning
for snow and blowing snow will be issued through Wednesday evening.
In addition, advisories will be issued for much of the remaining
zones except for Hill and Blaine. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...Model guidance continues to come
towards a consensus on the weather pattern for the bulk of the long
term. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal values for
Wednesday, Thursday, and part of Friday as a weak ridge moves into
the area behind the winter weather system. Another round of moisture
appears to be be on the way by Friday evening with the next surge of
cold air moving South along the Rocky Mountain Front. This cold air
will combine with pacific moisture and should produce some
widespread snowfall beginning Friday evening and lasting through
most of the weekend. Temperatures look to drop dramatically with
this cold air intrusion and highs may be limited to the teens and
single digits across much of Central and North Central Montana. The
coldest day appears to currently be Saturday. Temperatures should
begin to warm up slowly by the start of the work week, however Even
on Monday the high temperatures may still be below freezing for a
large part of the area. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0540Z.
Latest satellite/radar imagery showing the main portion of a weak
upper-level trof is currently passing thru central and southwest MT
with widespread VFR ceilings (generally above 5000 ft) and spotty
-SHRASN and -SHSN near all local terminals except KCTB.  Expect
little change in conditions next 4-6 hrs as the trof makes it way
across the region.  Look for steadily decreasing precipitation and
cloud cover, along with higher ceilings, progressing from
west-to-east by mid-late Mon morning as weak high pressure ridging
will follow the departing trof.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  31  41  25 /  10  30  30  90
CTB  39  29  39  22 /  10  20  20  90
HLN  39  30  42  32 /  20  30  70  90
BZN  34  20  37  27 /  30  40  80  80
WEY  27  15  32  25 /  50  70  60  60
DLN  32  22  41  35 /  10  20  50  40
HVR  40  28  39  21 /  10  30  20  60
LWT  38  27  39  23 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM MST Tuesday
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday evening
Beaverhead...Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis
and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Gallatin...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Madison...
Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to Midnight MST
Wednesday Night Beaverhead...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern
Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Jefferson...
Judith Basin...Liberty...Madison...Toole.

&&

$$

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