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145
FXUS62 KTBW 181349
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE AREA IS EVIDENCED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...WITH THE
KTBW 12Z RADIOSONDE SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.54
INCHES. WITH THIS DRY AIR OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY...EXCEPT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LOW. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TODAY FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP...AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO POOL ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
TO ALLOW FOR 30-40 PERCENT STORM CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DRY AIR.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO THE POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS...BUT OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. THE ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOW THAT PATCHY FOG HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF KFMY AND KRSW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF AREA TERMINALS. AT TIMES...MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD AGAIN
AFTER DARK THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL FRONT IS STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND
MAY INCREASE TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY A SEA AND LAND BREEZE CYCLE WILL RESUME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  84  71 /  30  30  80  30
FMY  90  74  88  72 /  50  30  80  30
GIF  91  73  86  70 /  40  30  80  30
SRQ  89  73  87  71 /  30  30  80  30
BKV  91  71  84  67 /  30  20  70  30
SPG  89  77  84  74 /  30  30  80  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...18/FLEMING
MARINE...03/PAXTON
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






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