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876
FXUS62 KTBW 240128
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ALOFT - A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND A RIDGE
REACHED FROM HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN CANADA. SURFACE - A LOW OVER THE
OZARK PLATEAU  HAD A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED BACK TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHED EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED
ACROSS MUCH OF FL TO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDES AMPLE ENERGY FOR STORMS
THAT EXTEND FROM GA ACROSS NORTH FL THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE THEY TAPER OFF SOME WHAT. THE STORMS ALONG WITH
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER NIGHT AND
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SOME SEA FOG WHEN IT CROSSES THE
COOLER COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG LATE
NIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS. GENERALLY FOG WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE.

FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED...MAINLY TO DROP THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FROM THE AFTERNOON BUT TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
WEATHER TIMING AND COVERAGE OVER NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z-25/00Z. PREVAILING VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR VSBY/CIG AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR BEFORE THEN IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS ALREADY SOME
BKN LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE SEA FOG JUST OFF THE COAST.
WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT DOES RELAX...OVERNIGHT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE DETERIORATING. LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OVER GEORGIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE WINDS
AND SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE ON
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP TO ADVISORY LEVEL IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  81  67  75 /  30  40  30  90
FMY  71  85  70  83 /  20  30  30  70
GIF  69  85  67  77 /  30  30  20  90
SRQ  71  81  67  77 /  20  30  30  80
BKV  69  82  62  73 /  30  40  30  90
SPG  71  81  67  75 /  20  40  40  90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD







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