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029
FXUS62 KTBW 271917
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY IN THE MID LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE RIDGING
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...CRISTOBAL IS
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PULLING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT A DRY AIR MASS IS STILL
IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. ON
THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL START TO CREEP BACK NORTH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR...AND EVEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER LEE AND
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
GET BACK UP TO 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE ABNORMALLY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY (AROUND -2 C) WILL BE STARTING TO COOL BACK OFF
TO AROUND -5 C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MID 90S ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE MEANDERS AROUND THE REGION...WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY CENTERED ABOVE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS IT DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...REACHING THE BAHAMAS AS A
TROUGH (GFS) OR CUBA AS A LOW (ECMWF) TUE. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD
RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS FL FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
INITIALLY THE RIDGE AXIS...
SOME WHAT ILL DEFINED...IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL BUT LIFTS UP TO ALONG
THE GA/FL LINE FOR THE WEEKEND THEN DROPS BACK INTO NORTHERN FL FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURES EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TRACKING AN INVERTED TROUGH...ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE...INTO THE BAHAMAS TUE.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
CHANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE
OF NORMAL...LOWS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND HIGHS AROUND A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH
RANGE...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN LATE MON AND TUE...IN THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT
STILL ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GRADIENT STAYS RELAXED WITH
SEA BREEZES SHIFTING THE FLOW TO ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS...
FOCUSING THE GREATEST COVERAGE INLAND BUT NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THAT KRSW...KFMY...AND KPGD COULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT STILL BE UP IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE THIS EVENING. EVENING EASTERLY SURGES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
AND WILL BECOME NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW WITH BEST RAIN
CHANCES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  40
FMY  76  93  76  93 /  20  60  30  40
GIF  75  94  75  95 /  10  20  20  50
SRQ  75  93  77  91 /  10  40  30  30
BKV  71  94  73  93 /  10  10  20  50
SPG  79  91  81  92 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MID TERM/LONG TERM...09/RUDE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE







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