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933
FXUS62 KTBW 311322 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVED TRENDS...THOUGH THE
ZONE FORECAST CAPTURES THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING MAKING FURTHER CHANGES AS
NEEDED.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT BEHIND IT WILL BRING THE CRISP TASTE OF
AUTUMN TO THE AREA TO USHER IN NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME CONVECTION AROUND SW
FLORIDA TAF SITES COULD BRING BOUTS OF MVFR TO PGD...FMY...AND RSW
THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PRODUCING SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING THE REAL PUSH OF COLDER DRIER AIR. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW PERSISTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  58  66  46 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  81  61  71  47 /  30   0  10   0
GIF  79  57  66  44 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  78  62  67  48 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  77  49  64  37 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  76  63  67  54 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR
     AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
     20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL







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