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774
FXUS62 KTAE 240142
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
842 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Potent shortwave, which kicked off the isolated severe weather
this afternoon/evening, has moved rapidly to the northeast and out
of the forecast area. However, the main front remains well to the
west along the central Gulf Coast, with the primary trough axis
even further west. With deep-layer onshore flow still in place,
and some minimal elevated instability as noted in the KTAE 00z
sounding, most of the guidance continues to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms through the night from the
Florida Panhandle into south central Georgia. The lowest levels
have stabilized with temperatures and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s, so severe wx should not be an issue. However, will keep PoPs
elevated through the night.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday] With the primary squall line east of all
terminals at this time, the threat for strong thunderstorms is
over. Strong low-level winds will still force a narrow band of
showers with possibly an isolated storm for the next couple of
hours, though this should only impact KABY and KECP with some IFR
visibilities. Expect IFR ceilings to overspread all terminals
shortly after midnight, expected to last through at least mid-
morning tomorrow. Restrictions will only gradually improve from
KABY to KTLH eastward, with VFR expected to return to the west by
midday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The northern stream longwave trough will deepen through the period
as a couple more +PV anomalies dive through the Middle Mississippi
Valley and another through the Southern Plains. It won`t be until
the southernmost anomaly sweeps through the Southeast that rain
will come to an end across the Tri-State region.

In the meantime, a weak surface boundary and some southern stream
forcing will keep a chance for showers in the forecast on Monday
although the synoptic front will be west of the region. Ahead of
the front we`ll likely be able to squeeze out one more day of
middle 70s across the region. The front will pass to the east of
us overnight with temperatures cooling into the low 50s and upper
40s. On Tuesday, we`ll likely be able to generate a little more
coverage across the region under some diffluence aloft between the
approaching northern stream shortwave and the departing southern
stream anomaly. This will all be post frontal, cool rain with
afternoon highs in the upper 50s area-wide. Rain will continue
through the night Tuesday with lows dipping to around 40 degrees.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast on Wednesday
as the northern stream shortwave finally clears out the moisture
and ushers in dry air. Wednesday night through Thursday night
expect lows in the mid to upper 30s. We`ll finish the week with
afternoon highs and overnight lows gradually climbing back up to
seasonal averages.


.Marine...

A prolonged period of at least cautionary winds, and sometimes
advisory level will continue through mid-week when high pressure
will build into the Southeast. Showers will be possible through
Wednesday, and then dry to finish the week.


.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region for Monday. However,
humidity values are still forecast to remain well above critical
values, so there are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches have occurred over most of
the area overnight and through the morning hours. Heavy rain with a
squall line this afternoon and evening will exit the area by
midnight, with additional amounts of

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  77  52  59  41 /  60  40  20  50  60
Panama City   66  72  53  59  44 /  60  30  10  50  60
Dothan        64  76  47  57  40 /  30  20  10  40  50
Albany        66  76  48  58  40 /  60  30  10  40  60
Valdosta      68  75  53  58  42 /  60  50  30  50  70
Cross City    71  74  58  64  45 /  50  50  40  60  70
Apalachicola  67  73  55  60  45 /  60  40  20  50  60

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until Midnight CST tonight for Coastal Bay-
     South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH








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