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129
FXUS62 KTAE 210553
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
153 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

Deep layer ridging, dry conditions along with mostly sunny skies
will help temperatures return to around seasonal levels. Max temps
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 inland areas and lower to mid
70s along the coast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The positive-tilted 500 mb trough currently over the Central
Plains will translate eastward over the Southeast tonight and
Tuesday. The associated surface cold front appears quite weak in
the model solutions, and both the GFS and ECMWF show this front stalling
near the FL-GA border Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper
trough moves off to the east. The latest NWP guidance doesn`t show
very impressive omega fields with this system, and our PoP will
range from 20% in Tallahassee to 40% around Dothan and Albany
Tuesday afternoon. Although the large scale lifts doesn`t seem
that impressive, there may be enough SBCAPE to support at least a
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. However, any threat for a severe
storm appears low given the overall lack of vertical wind shear
and strong forcing. The highest QPF will likely be over our northern
zones, but QPF totals are currently only projected to be about
0.25 in or less. Temperatures will generally be slightly above
climatology.


.Long Term [Wednesday night Through Monday]...

The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the
period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the remainder
of the period look to be below 20 percent. Temperatures are
expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]...VFR conditions with mainly high level
cloudiness through the TAF cycle. Winds will mostly be light and
offshore except becoming onshore at ECP this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...

The pressure gradient will be relatively weak through Wednesday, so
winds and seas are expected to remain below 15 KT. There will be a
slight increase in winds and choppiness near the coast each
afternoon due to the daily sea breeze development.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our local rivers were above their normal stages, with
several in flood. Fortunately the next rain chance is unlikely to
cause significant rises, with QPF amounts generally less than 0.25
in. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce was near major flood stage. Other
points reaching moderate flood stage are:
Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at
Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  54  83  60  83 /   0   0  30  10  10
Panama City   77  59  76  63  79 /   0   0  20  10  10
Dothan        78  57  81  60  83 /   0   0  40  20  10
Albany        80  55  82  59  83 /   0   0  40  20   0
Valdosta      78  54  84  60  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    79  53  83  58  83 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  73  58  76  62  77 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON








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