National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to with any concerns.

Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  
FXUS62 KTAE 280043

743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a couple of northeast-
southwest oriented troughs across the Southeast, but the pressure
gradient was weaker than 24 hours ago. With this weaker gradient
we expect lighter winds overnight, perhaps going calm at times.
The combination of light winds and a cool, dry airmass will allow
temperatures to fall into the mid 30s in our normally coldest
inland sites; with a few spots perhaps briefly reaching freezing
around sunrise. Patchy frost is also possible.



[Through 00Z Thursday] Unrestricted Vis and unlimited cigs are
expected through at least Wednesday evening. Winds will be light
to calm overnight, then N to NE 7 KT or less Wednesday.


.Prev Discussion [325 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The high amplitude long wave trough will be east of the area at the
start of the period with nearly zonal flow in place by 12Z Thursday.
A northern stream trough will pass north of the region Thursday
night. Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Wednesday
morning will slide south to our forecast area by Thursday. Yet
another cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night.
Models have been trending drier with this front, but we have kept in
a slight chance for showers after midnight. Temps will be a few
degrees below normal Wednesday and Wednesday night, seasonal on
Thursday and milder than normal Thursday night.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
An upper level ridge will build over the area from Friday night into
Saturday with another northern stream trough passing north of the
area on Sunday and Sunday night. A surface frontal system will
accompany this feature with the cold frontal passage most likely
occurring on Sunday. We have edged PoPs up to the chance category
for this event and these may rise as the timing of the frontal
passage becomes more certain. High pressure will then regain control
of the weather from Monday into Tuesday. Temps will be near seasonal
levels through the weekend with cooler temps arriving early next
week. Overnight lows will be above normal through the period.

Winds and seas have now dropped below small craft advisory criteria
and we will instead go with an exercise caution headline for
tonight. Winds and seas will drop below headline criteria on
Wednesday and gradually veer to onshore by Thursday as high pressure
settles to the south. Winds will increase slightly behind a cold
front on Friday morning, but are expected to reach cautionary levels
from Friday night into Sunday.

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values just above critical thresholds will
preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions over the next several

Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested at Thomasville just below flood stage. This suggests that
downstream conditions at Concord and Havana will be very near or
just above flood stage later this week.

The Withlacoochee River crested above Valdosta this morning and the
additional water from the Little River (cresting at Hahira
this evening) will likely result in minor flood levels later this
week below Valdosta at US-84.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models
suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the
area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any
additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area
stream flows above normal as we move into February.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  60  34  64  48 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   42  57  42  63  52 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        34  56  36  63  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Albany        33  55  32  61  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      35  56  33  63  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    37  59  32  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  41  59  42  64  52 /   0   0   0   0  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Wednesday for Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE