000
FXUS62 KTAE 210046
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT OUR CWA OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOUTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE IT LIFTS
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LA AT 12Z SAT WITH THE WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. WE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IF
IT OCCURS...IT WILL BE DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME
FRAME. UNTIL THEN...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING OUR WESTERNMOST
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO UPDATE TO GRIDS OR ZONES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

AVIATION...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON ZERO.
COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KTLH AND
KVLD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MORNING. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT IN
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY...ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON IS THE PROBLEM OF THE FORECAST. MODELS VERY DIFFERENT IN
HANDLING APPROACHING LOW. HAVE GONE WITH HEDGE FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON...WITH PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

BARRY/CAMP