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873 FXUS62 KTAE 231537 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1137 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... Surface analysis from 13 UTC this morning showed the cold front was moving through the northern Gulf of Mexico. This boundary will eventually stall later today. Moderate NE flow is in place across the region behind this front with a large area of high pressure building over the Mid Atlantic States. Lingering low level moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion has led to extensive cloudiness across Southwestern Georgia and into the Western Florida Panhandle. Expect this cloud deck to gradually thin as heating takes place, though skies likely won`t become partly cloudy in these areas until after 2 pm. Highs will be cooler today, generally in the upper 70s in the cloudier locations to mid 80s elsewhere. && .Prev Discussion [305 AM EDT]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... A weak cut off low aloft with a decaying vorticity anomaly will keep the cold front stationary across our forecast area tonight. The highest chances for thunderstorms tonight will be over the water, with slight chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday over the Gulf waters and in the eastern Florida Big Bend. Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be cool behind the front, from around 60 in our northernmost counties to mid to upper 60s along the immediate coastline. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The beginning of the extended period will feature a relatively weak flow pattern aloft across the deep south, with the area situated between ridges over the Rockies and western Atlantic. At the surface, northeasterly flow will continue with high pressure parked over New England and a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. The northeasterly flow should keep most of the deeper moisture and showers confined to northeast Florida. However, isolated activity may reach the far eastern Big Bend from time to time. Deeper moisture is forecast to return over the weekend as a trough deepens over the central states. This should lead to increased rain chances across the forecast area for Saturday into Monday. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Wednesday] With a large area of wrap around low cloudiness developing to our NE and moving to the SW, went a bit more pessimistic on the Tafs for the overnight hours this package. Expect conditions to deteriorate from NE to SW, with prevailing MVFR Cigs expected at all of the terminals along with a period of IFR level Cigs at ABY and VLD. Furthermore, these low ceilings will be tough to lift and break out this morning, with the MVFR conditions possibly lingering into the early afternoon hours at ABY and VLD. However, the best chances for rain will be across far eastern portions of the CWA today, but with PoPs only 20% at VLD and lower elsewhere, no mention of them in the Tafs is needed at this time. Finally, gusty NE winds can be expected at all of the terminals from the late morning hours to around sunset this evening. .Marine... East-northeast winds will rise to advisory levels tonight over much of our coastal waters and will likely remain elevated until Thursday. After Thursday, cautionary winds will likely remain in place over the coastal waters into the early weekend. Seas will peak Wednesday around 5 to 6 feet over the offshore waters. .Fire Weather... Moisture levels will remain fairly high over the next several days which will keep afternoon relative humidities well away from any fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be around 0.75-1" in the eastern Big Bend, 0.75" or less over the rest of the area. These totals will not cause our rivers to rise into flood stage. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 84 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 20 Panama City 84 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dothan 81 60 83 63 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 Albany 81 61 83 63 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 83 63 83 64 84 / 10 10 10 10 20 Cross City 83 67 86 67 86 / 20 20 30 20 40 Apalachicola 84 69 84 70 84 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...MOORE