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440 FXUS66 KSTO 241155 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 355 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2014 .Synopsis... High pressure strengthens as it moves into the West Coast today and brings mild weather through Thanksgiving with above normal temperatures. Rain will likely return to the region by Friday/Saturday. && .Discussion... Patchy fog started developing around 1:30 am from Marysville southward to Modesto. Visibilities have oscillated for the past 2 hours ranging from only 1/4 mile up to 5 miles. Dense fog seems to be very spotty and not widespread so have not issued any dense fog advisories at this point. We expect this patchy fog to continue through sunrise so valley motorists between Marysville and Modesto should be ready to slow down and drive with caution should they encounter fog during early morning hours. The high pressure ridge that developed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean is edging towards the west coast and will move inland today into Tuesday then continue to track eastward until it weakens Thursday and Friday. This ridging pattern will bring a subtle warming trend through Wednesday with daytime highs nudging up a degree or two each day. Valley highs will generally range in the mid to upper 60s while higher terrain ranges low 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday will be the warmest day this week with valley highs 5-10 degrees above normal and mountain highs 10-20 degrees above normal for late November. With lingering moisture from the wet pattern last week and subsidence aloft, we still expect patchy fog development for the next few mornings (between midnight and sunrise). Patchy fog/low clouds are most likely from Marysville southward for valley locations and mountain valleys may also get patchy fog. By Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, the ridge will weaken as a storm system offshore moves closer to the Pacific NW. This weakening ridge will cause daytime highs to lower a bit, but the Holiday forecast continues to look dry. JBB .Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday) Models similar in spreading initial precip with a warm front into interior NorCal on Friday as upper ridge flattens and shifts east. Still some differences between the EC and GFS on timing the cold front shifting inland Saturday as the models differ on when the upstream trough will dig down from the Gulf of Alaska which will affect impacts inland. Showery precip with lower snow levels expected to continue into early next week as the upper trough moves overhead. && .Aviation... NWly flow alf as upr rdg blds off the W Cst. VFR ovr intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR and isold LIFR poss in vly fog til 18Z. Lcl Nly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts poss thru favrd cnyns and omtns thru abt 20Z. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$