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023
FXUS66 KSTO 281109
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
309 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Confidence inreasing in both a weekend system and Tuesday-
Wendnesday storm system for some wet weather! The Saturday/Sunday
system may bring travel challenges above 6000 feet with 6 to 12
inches of snow expected. The next system on Tuesday/Wednesday
looks wetter and warmer with higher snow levels but more valley
rain.

&&

.Discussion...(Tonight through Monday)
Good agreement that wet weather will move into the area later
today through Sunday. This system will come in 2 waves with the
first line of rain pushing from north to south across the valley
starting late this afternoon in the north then south into the
Sacramento area late in the evening to around midnight. Snow will
then start around 6000 feet along with I-80 and I-5. This band has
consistently been forecast to linger a bit through mid morning on
Saturday then with off and on showers in higher terrain through
the day. There may be a little let up in activity overnight
Saturday night then pick back up Sunday as another wave pushes
through again. Snowlevels look to be a bit lower getting closer to
5000 feet but looks like accumulations will mostly remain above
6000 feet. Combining these 2 weather systems will put snow totals
in the 6 to 12 inch mark above 6000 feet...with probably some
higher amounts at some of the ski resorts. We will issue a winter
weather adivory starting at midnight Saturday through Sunday
evening. Rain looks to be heaviest in the southern Valley with a
good chance of mainy areas getting at least a half inch up to 1
inch.


.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Confidence coming together again for a nice wet system to move
across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. System is pretty warm with
snow levels above 6000 feet most of the time. ECMWF continues to
be wetter than the GFS and parallel GFS is wetter than the lower
res GFS. Total rain amounts range from around an inch with GFS in
the valley to several inches with ECMWF. Surely higher terrain
will get several inches to with up to 5 inches possible looking at
ECMWF which is in line with original thoughts with the
system...just a slower arrival. Rasch

&&

.Aviation...

Areas of IFR/LIFR fog will persist through about 18z today across
much of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Pacific
storm system will begin to move through the area later today,
bringing rain to KRDD-KRBL by 18-20z and down to Sacramento TAF
sites after 03z Saturday. VFR/MVFR conditions initially in rain
will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR Friday night. Expect snow levels to
be around 6000 ft, with IFR/LIFR conditions over the mountains.

South winds up to 12 kt will be possible this afternoon and
tonight in advance of the front. Over the mountains, SW wind gusts
up to 45 kt possible today.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm pst sunday
above 6000 feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada...
western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$








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