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898 FXUS66 KSTO 240512 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 1010 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2014 .Synopsis... A stalled cold front will keep a chance of light rain over the northern mountains overnight. Dry and warming conditions on Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Stronger weather system will move into northern California through the weekend bringing rain...cooler temperatures and gusty winds. && .Discussion... Digging Ern Pac trof along 140W is beginning to amplify the downstream ridge over the SWrn CONUS. The nearly stationary cold front across the NWrn portion of the CWA is beginning to lift NNWwd and should be mainly affecting the coastal range and Wrn portions of Tehama/Shasta counties overnite before lifting NW of our CWA by late Fri morning. Much warmer temps expected over the Nrn third to half of our CWA on Fri as the rain and thick cloud cover will yield to sunshine. Maxes should be near or slightly above normal over our CWA...and some 10 to 17 degrees warmer over the Nrn half of the CWA and 2 to 5 degrees over the Srn portion of the area which had filtered sunshine on Thu. JHM .Previous Discussion... This weekend, the main weather system will move inland and bring widespread rain and some breezy to locally windy conditions to the region. Saturday looks to be the day with the most activity. Winds, widespread showers and potential for afternoon/evening isolated thunderstorms. At this time, the winds look like they`ll be a nuisance for outdoor events and may blow holiday decorations around. However, the slower progression of this system may result in slightly higher winds. We will continue to monitor later runs and see if any wind headlines are necessary. Also, the snow levels are expected to lower to around 7000 feet Saturday night, so there could be some light accumulations over the higher passes. Showers will linger on Sunday, but should see decreasing showers from south to north through the day. Precipitation amounts this weekend should be a couple tenths in the San Joaquin Valley to up to half an inch in the northern Sacramento Valley. The mountains could see 1-1.5 inches of liquid. .Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday) Monday will once again see a drying trend as a weak ridge builds in behind the exiting system with temperatures rebounding to near seasonal. Tuesday through the end of the week, a series of weather systems will flatten the ridge as they move through the Pacific Northwest. These waves will result in an increase of clouds and cooler temperatures with a chance of precipitation across the northern mountains on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Beyond Tuesday night, the models really begin to diverge so confidence in the Wednesday and Thursday forecast is low. GFS rebuilds a fairly strong ridge over the west coast Wednesday and Thursday, while the ECMWF and GEM dig the next upper trough into the eastern Pacific. Therefore, kept a slight chance of showers in the mountains and near seasonal temperatures. We will continue to monitor the models and adjust the forecast as needed. && .Aviation... Area of light rain has lifted NWwd mainly along and N of a line from Yolla Bolly-RDD-Lassen Park...and is forecast to remain nearly stationary or possibly lift a little father NWwd overnight. MVFR conditions with isolated IFR over mtns or valleys possible overnite. VFR SKC conditions from MYV Swd. Friday will see just high thin clouds with winds from the south between 10-15 mph in the afternoon. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$