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023 FXUS66 KSTO 281109 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 309 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2014 .Synopsis... Confidence inreasing in both a weekend system and Tuesday- Wendnesday storm system for some wet weather! The Saturday/Sunday system may bring travel challenges above 6000 feet with 6 to 12 inches of snow expected. The next system on Tuesday/Wednesday looks wetter and warmer with higher snow levels but more valley rain. && .Discussion...(Tonight through Monday) Good agreement that wet weather will move into the area later today through Sunday. This system will come in 2 waves with the first line of rain pushing from north to south across the valley starting late this afternoon in the north then south into the Sacramento area late in the evening to around midnight. Snow will then start around 6000 feet along with I-80 and I-5. This band has consistently been forecast to linger a bit through mid morning on Saturday then with off and on showers in higher terrain through the day. There may be a little let up in activity overnight Saturday night then pick back up Sunday as another wave pushes through again. Snowlevels look to be a bit lower getting closer to 5000 feet but looks like accumulations will mostly remain above 6000 feet. Combining these 2 weather systems will put snow totals in the 6 to 12 inch mark above 6000 feet...with probably some higher amounts at some of the ski resorts. We will issue a winter weather adivory starting at midnight Saturday through Sunday evening. Rain looks to be heaviest in the southern Valley with a good chance of mainy areas getting at least a half inch up to 1 inch. .Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday) Confidence coming together again for a nice wet system to move across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. System is pretty warm with snow levels above 6000 feet most of the time. ECMWF continues to be wetter than the GFS and parallel GFS is wetter than the lower res GFS. Total rain amounts range from around an inch with GFS in the valley to several inches with ECMWF. Surely higher terrain will get several inches to with up to 5 inches possible looking at ECMWF which is in line with original thoughts with the system...just a slower arrival. Rasch && .Aviation... Areas of IFR/LIFR fog will persist through about 18z today across much of the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Pacific storm system will begin to move through the area later today, bringing rain to KRDD-KRBL by 18-20z and down to Sacramento TAF sites after 03z Saturday. VFR/MVFR conditions initially in rain will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR Friday night. Expect snow levels to be around 6000 ft, with IFR/LIFR conditions over the mountains. South winds up to 12 kt will be possible this afternoon and tonight in advance of the front. Over the mountains, SW wind gusts up to 45 kt possible today. Dang && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm pst sunday above 6000 feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada... western plumas county/lassen park. && $$