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754 FXUS64 KSJT 162052 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 352 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Thursday) Breezy and warm conditions continue this afternoon across the area. A cold front is moving south through the Texas panhandle and western Caprock areas of west Texas. We can expect to see the breezy conditions persist through the overnight hours as a LLJ of 30 to 40 knots develops across west central Texas. With increasing moisture, breezy winds overnight, and low clouds developing late, expect warm overnight temperatures only dropping into the low to mid 50s. On Thursday, the cold front will move into our forecast area, turning winds to the east/northeast by the end of the day. The front will turn winds to the northeast for the western half of the area first, allowing moisture to continue to advect northward for eastern areas. As was mentioned in the previous AFD, the atmosphere is expected to be capped preventing deep convection on Thursday. However, saturated lower levels with the help of the front may result in a few showers for locations generally east of a Sweetwater to Junction line. Highs tomorrow will be similar for the most part, but may be a few degrees cooler for eastern areas where clouds will limit heating. 20 .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Wednesday) Weak isentropic ascent will be in place across West Central TX on Thursday night over the top of a very shallow "cool" airmass. The environment will be strongly capped, but there should be enough moisture/ascent to produce a few showers across the area. I did include a slight chance of showers during the overnight period. The timing appears to be coincident with shortwave ridging aloft, however, so I don`t anticipate much in the way of appreciable rainfall amounts. On Friday, the ridge axis will shift east as a potent shortwave trough moves into the southwest CONUS. A fast moving wave downstream of the trough axis will lift northeast across the area Friday and Friday night. The models are hinting at some very light precipitation across the area ahead of this wave on Friday but I think the primary impact will be mostly cloudy skies. We`ll continue to monitor the potential for light rain and/or drizzle, especially early in the day. A stronger shortwave is progged to move northeast across West TX on Saturday. Southerly flow will continue to pump Gulf moisture into the region. Increasing large scale ascent and mesoscale lift attendant to the left exit region of the subtropical jet will yield scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters certainly do not scream severe weather, it is mid April, so we`ll have to keep that door open. If any storms do become severe, it will likely be the exception, rather than the rule. Temperatures are still expected to warm into the mid 70s despite the overcast skies and precip chances. The upper trough axis will take its time moving across the area, so showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast areawide on Sunday. I think convection will be more spotty later in the weekend with the cap expected to be a bit stronger. That said, convective parameters suggest a greater potential for severe weather for Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast temps in the low to mid 80s push SBCAPE values north of 2000 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear in the range of 30-40 kts. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday but precip chances will shift to the southeast portion of the CWA in the vicinity of a weak surface boundary. Generally dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging overspreads the area on the backside of the departing trough. We will retain our low-level moisture through the period which will help keep overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s with afternoon temperatures warming to near 90 degrees. Johnson && .FIRE WEATHER... Will leave the Red Flag warning going through the evening hours. Area observations within the RFW area remain in or near critical fire weather conditions, and conditions will likely continue to be at or near critical through the next few hours. Fire weather conditions will improve tomorrow through the weekend with strong moisture advection into the area beginning Thursday, and a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures warm back into the 80s and 90s next week which will result in increasing fire weather concerns. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 52 70 53 75 58 / 0 20 20 10 10 San Angelo 53 76 55 77 59 / 0 10 10 10 10 Junction 54 72 55 77 60 / 5 10 20 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...Throckmorton. && $$ 20/25