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832 FXUS64 KSJT 010449 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Starting to see some stratus develop across the Hill Country of Texas late this evening. Some of this stratus will likely spread north across the southern terminals after 09Z and will include MVFR ceilings at KJCT, with TEMPO MVFR at KSOA this forecast cycle. Stratus will scatter out by mid morning with VFR for the rest of the forecast period. South winds will become gusty on Monday with winds diminishing by early evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Sonora, Brady, and Junction may see some scattered low clouds near sunrise Monday morning that should dissipate quickly, much like this morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow at San Angelo and Abilene. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Monday) A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning. The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer than today. 19 LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving through the area by next weekend. Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical activity would be able to push this far north, especially since the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be watching this closely should this activity become more organized. Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at this point. Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern extent of the cold front. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 98 74 97 73 / 5 5 5 5 5 San Angelo 74 99 74 96 73 / 5 5 5 5 5 Junction 73 96 75 94 73 / 5 5 5 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 24