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974 FXUS64 KSJT 200848 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 347 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) A quick glance at the water vapor loop suggests that the upper-level anticyclone is building over northern Mexico with a general easterly flow over West TX. Mid-level winds are a bit more nebulous, with the remnants of Odile becoming very difficult to discern. A band of showers developed across the Concho Valley early this morning, running from Colorado City, to Robert Lee, to Miles. However, organization was poor and this activity continues to weaken. Farther west, activity has been more persistent. Based on radar trends, it appears that there may be an MCV from earlier convection near Midland. That would make sense given the precipitation trends on it`s eastern flank. This feature will weaken as it moves slowly east, but will continue to interact with a very moist environment. This morning, the models (including the hi-res runs) focus the precipitation over the northern half of the CWA. However, by midday, we should see sufficient heating in the southern half of the forecast area for scattered diurnal convection to develop. Even with temperatures only warming into the mid 80s, BUFR soundings in the San Angelo area show no cap with SBCAPE values near 1500 J/kg. It still appears that showers will be the predominant weather type, but thunderstorms are still possible. Precipitable water values remain between 1.8" and 2.0" across West Central TX, which is approximately 2 standard deviations above normal (or in the 95th percentile). The melting level will be around 15,000 ft AGL, supportive of efficient warm rain processes. Thus, the threat for locally heavy rainfall will continue. That said, the heaviest rainfall has been rather localized over the past few days, and should remain as such, so no Flash Flood Watch will be issued at this time. Convection is expected to shift back to the west this evening, with the best rain chances being west of an Abilene to San Angelo line. PoPs for tonight are tapered from 60% in the west to 30% in the east. The heavy rainfall threat will continue, but is expected to shift west in line with the better organized convection. Slightly drier air is forecast to work into the area tonight with overnight lows mainly in the upper 60s. Johnson .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Drier air in the mid level works in from the northeast Sunday. There is still enough moisture to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, however, with the best chance of rain west of a Sweetwater...San Angelo...Sonora line. A few areas of locally heavy rainfall are possible west of the line, where the NAM and GFS indicated precipitable water above 1.5 inches. Unfortunately a weak cold front, previously in the computer models, and possible focus for heavy rainfall in West Central Texas, is not present Sunday. The GFS and the EC models indicated isolated afternoon convection next week, as moisture at and below 700 MB remains, along with weak ridging aloft. Maintained the slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, but left out the rest of the work week given low probability of occurrence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 84 69 86 68 86 / 60 40 20 10 20 San Angelo 83 69 86 67 87 / 60 40 30 5 20 Junction 85 71 87 68 89 / 50 40 20 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25/04