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252 FXUS64 KSJT 072141 AAB AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 341 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) Westerly flow aloft over Texas will become southwest by Saturday, as a positively tilted upper trough develops across New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. Gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon and early evening will decrease early tonight. Surface cold front will move south into our northern counties after Midnight, and across the rest of our area Saturday morning. Behind this front, temperatures will be much cooler Saturday with increased cloud cover. Based on 12Z model indications with limited moisture across our area, trimmed rain chances back a bit further on Saturday. A few light rain showers are possible along and just behind the front (Saturday morning) across the area roughly southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Expect any amounts to be less than one tenth of an inch. .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next week) Upper level low spends several days spinning away southwest of the Big Bend area, before finally weakening and pushing east across Central Texas. Given the track, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the rain chances south of the area through Monday. Some of the showers may just clip the southeast counties near Mason and Junction on Monday afternoon, but would be brief and light. Otherwise, looks like a dry forecast will continue. Continued cool behind the Saturday cold front for Sunday, but winds begin to switch around to the south. Warmer on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Next front arrives midweek, with cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. && .Fire Weather... Despite the warm temperatures and gusty south-southwest winds, the extent of elevated fire weather conditions today has been reduced somewhat by increased dewpoints and relative humidity values. The main area of focus this afternoon is northwest of a Throckmorton to Brownwood to San Angelo line. Fire weather conditions will ease this evening with cooling temperatures, increasing relative humidities and gradually decreasing wind speeds. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of West Central Texas on Tuesday of next week, when increased southwest to west winds and warm temperatures are forecast to be combined with an intrusion of very dry air. The next cold frontal passage is forecast to occur on Tuesday night, with gusty north winds following its passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 45 52 31 59 / 5 10 10 20 10 San Angelo 76 47 55 35 60 / 5 10 10 20 20 Junction 73 53 59 38 56 / 5 5 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19/07