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141 FXUS64 KSJT 222315 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ A few very high based, very isolated, showers and thunderstorms developing across West Central Texas. Radar trends suggest that the Junction and Sonora sites, KJCT and KSOA, would be the only 2 that might be affected by one of the storms, and even that would be highly unlikely. Thus, will not mention in the terminal forecast at this time. Will monitor and update as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions and east to southeast winds should continue. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo, moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City. Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon. Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light winds from a generally easterly direction. Johnson LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity. At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the forecast dry at this time. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 74 99 74 100 74 / 0 5 5 5 5 San Angelo 73 100 71 101 72 / 5 5 5 10 5 Junction 71 98 71 98 72 / 0 5 5 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07