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109
FXUS64 KSJT 301755 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the area generally southeast of a line from
Abilene to Robert Lee to Ozona. Based on satellite trends with
the developing cumulus field, including a VCTS mention at KJCT
and KBBD. Where the showers and storms occur, have a potential
for temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling, in the brief
heavy rain accompanying the convection. Will monitor radar trends
and update as needed. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
into this evening across southern parts of the area, and should
dissipate by late evening. Skies will become mostly clear
overnight. Will have enough low-level moisture present Sunday to
support a diurnal cumulus field. Variable winds early this
afternoon will become east at 5-10 kts by late afternoon. Winds
will veer to the south overnight. South winds are expected on
Sunday, and may have occasional gusts to near 20 kts by afternoon
at KABI.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy low clouds over central TX will remain to the east of the
forecast area for the most part this morning. Brief MVFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out at KJCT or KBBD, but confidence is too low to
warrant carrying these in the current TAF. Otherwise, expect light
and variable winds this morning, becoming east at 6-10 kts this
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
with the favored area along and southeast of a KSOA to KBWD line.
However, spatial coverage will be low and including mention of
thunder would be like driving a nail with a sledgehammer. Any
convection that develops will dissipate during the evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper-level cyclone that aided in the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the region the past 2 days is moving
rapidly northeast across the Great Lakes. However, another
shortwave trough is moving out of the Rockies this morning, easily
distinguished on the water vapor loop by the ascent spreading into
western KS, south into the TX Panhandle. This wave is progged to
continue moving east-southeast across the Southern Plains today.
While ascent will not be all that strong, we will maintain a moist
boundary layer and weak static stability owing to the relatively
cool temps aloft. Isolated showers (and a few thunderstorms) are
expected this afternoon. Because there is no well defined low-
level forcing mechanism, 10-20% PoPs were basically broadbrushed
across the area southeast of a line from Barnhart, to Bronte, to
Throckmorton. Any additional rainfall amounts will be light given
the relatively shallow nature of the convection. Expect afternoon
temperatures generally in the mid 90s.

Isolated convection may last into the evening hours, but should
wane a few hours after sunset. The best chance of precipitation
this evening looks to be along and south of an Ozona to San Saba
line. However, coverage is expected to be limited, so PoPs remain
less than 20%. Temperatures will fall into the lower 70s across
much of West Central TX with a few low-lying areas potentially
reaching the 60s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

With upper level ridging remaining over the forecast area through
the coming week, the forecast for West Central Texas will be hot
and dry. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s will cool to the
lower to mid 90s by the middle of next week, close to normal for
this time of year. Morning lows will cool a few degrees also, from
the lower to mid 70s to the lower 70s by midweek. This is only a
few degrees warmer than normal.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  96  74  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  96  71  96  73  97 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  95  72  95  73  96 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










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