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093 FXUS64 KSJT 180526 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1126 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Low clouds and fog have developed across much of the CWA this evening. Visibilities currently range from around 1 mile at KJCT to 10 miles at KSJT and KABI, with visibilities typically in the IFR (or worse) category at 300-900 ft. This trend will continue overnight with little improvement expected at the forecast terminals. In fact, visibilities are expected to drop to 1/2 mile at KJCT and KBBD overnight with visibilities elsewhere generally remaining above 2 miles. Drier air will advect into the early Thursday and this should result in improving flight conditions between 12-16z. Ceilings are expected to erode by mid/late morning from northwest to southeast, leaving a canopy of high clouds for the remainder of the day. Winds will veer around the dial from the southwest early in the day to the north by early afternoon, eventually setting on a northeasterly direction by 00z. Johnson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ MVFR conditions prevail across the KABI and KSJT terminals, while KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD are holding at IFR. Conditions are expected to deteriorate across the KJCT, KSOA and KBBD terminals after midnight with LIFR ceilings developing and prevailing through 12Z. Visibility is also expected to diminish, dropping as low as 1/2 mile. Conditions will begin improving late tomorrow morning as drier air moves into the area. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Thursday) Rain chances will be on the downward trend tonight as drier air works into the area behind a weak frontal passage. At 3 pm, a vort max and area of surface low pressure are currently lifting northeast from northeastern New Mexico. A weak surface trough/dryline extended south from the western Panhandle to near Fort Stockton. This dryline will move across the area, putting the kibosh to any rain chances after midnight. Clouds will gradually decrease in coverage from north to south overnight. This combined with the drier air will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s, which is still above seasonal normal values of the mid 30s. The next in a series of vort maxes/short wave troughs, currently diving southeast along the California coast, will make the turn east during the day tomorrow, and will be near southern New Mexico/Mexican border by Thursday evening. Convergence along the approaching front and ahead of the incoming disturbance will result in increasing cloud cover by afternoon. A weak cold front dropping south will reach Interstate 20 by late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. Timing of this front may affect afternoon high temperatures across northern areas tomorrow if it`s faster than what is currently shown in the models. With less clouds and rainfall in the area than today, highs will rebound to around 60 across the north, warming to the upper 60s near Interstate 10. LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Friday) This will be the active weather time frame, as current strong upper level short wave trough over the Lower Colorado River Valley(AZ/CA border) moves to the east across Texas Thursday night through Friday. This system will have more upper level dynamics along with low level forcing due to inverted surface trough near our southeast counties. The highest POPS(likely) will be across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country, eastern Northern Edwards Plateau, with mainly chance POPS elsewhere for Thursday night. Also, some elevated instability and steeper mid level lapse rates will lead to the possibility of thunderstorms along and south of a Brownwood to Ozona line. The main hazards will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning and small hail with the stronger storms. For Friday, scattered showers will continue mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo line during the morning and then only a few showers by afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch will be possible mainly across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country for this event. (Friday Night through Wednesday) Looks like a dry forecast for the weekend through the middle of next week. Upper level west-northwest flow will bring dry conditions and mild temperatures. Highs will be mainly in the 50s, with 60s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 43 64 39 51 35 / 10 5 40 30 10 San Angelo 43 66 42 56 35 / 10 5 50 30 5 Junction 46 69 44 56 36 / 10 10 70 50 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25