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414 FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area (west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/ storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft. Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning. The predominant direction will be from the southeast. 19 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10 corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine with increased surface moisture to result in showers and thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening, with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s. CRD LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across the area. Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend. No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions, so fairly benign weather on the way. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 57 80 56 79 / 10 5 5 10 10 San Angelo 81 57 79 57 79 / 20 10 10 10 10 Junction 81 57 80 57 80 / 10 5 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$