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[Printable]
093
FXUS64 KSJT 180526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1126 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Low clouds and fog have developed across much of the CWA this
evening. Visibilities currently range from around 1 mile at KJCT
to 10 miles at KSJT and KABI, with visibilities typically in the
IFR (or worse) category at 300-900 ft. This trend will continue
overnight with little improvement expected at the forecast
terminals. In fact, visibilities are expected to drop to 1/2 mile
at KJCT and KBBD overnight with visibilities elsewhere generally
remaining above 2 miles.

Drier air will advect into the early Thursday and this should
result in improving flight conditions between 12-16z. Ceilings are
expected to erode by mid/late morning from northwest to southeast,
leaving a canopy of high clouds for the remainder of the day.
Winds will veer around the dial from the southwest early in the
day to the north by early afternoon, eventually setting on a
northeasterly direction by 00z.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR conditions prevail across the KABI and KSJT terminals, while
KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD are holding at IFR. Conditions are expected
to deteriorate across the KJCT, KSOA and KBBD terminals after
midnight with LIFR ceilings developing and prevailing through 12Z.
Visibility is also expected to diminish, dropping as low as 1/2
mile. Conditions will begin improving late tomorrow morning as
drier air moves into the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Rain chances will be on the downward trend tonight as drier air
works into the area behind a weak frontal passage. At 3 pm, a vort
max and area of surface low pressure are currently lifting
northeast from northeastern New Mexico. A weak surface
trough/dryline extended south from the western Panhandle to near
Fort Stockton. This dryline will move across the area, putting the
kibosh to any rain chances after midnight. Clouds will gradually
decrease in coverage from north to south overnight. This combined
with the drier air will allow overnight temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 40s, which is still above seasonal normal values
of the mid 30s.

The next in a series of vort maxes/short wave troughs, currently
diving southeast along the California coast, will make the turn
east during the day tomorrow, and will be near southern New
Mexico/Mexican border by Thursday evening. Convergence along the
approaching front and ahead of the incoming disturbance will
result in increasing cloud cover by afternoon. A weak cold front
dropping south will reach Interstate 20 by late afternoon/early
evening tomorrow. Timing of this front may affect afternoon high
temperatures across northern areas tomorrow if it`s faster than
what is currently shown in the models. With less clouds and
rainfall in the area than today, highs will rebound to around 60
across the north, warming to the upper 60s near Interstate 10.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Friday)

This will be the active weather time frame, as current strong
upper level short wave trough over the Lower Colorado River
Valley(AZ/CA border) moves to the east across Texas Thursday night
through Friday. This system will have more upper level dynamics
along with low level forcing due to inverted surface trough near
our southeast counties. The highest POPS(likely) will be across
the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country, eastern Northern Edwards
Plateau, with mainly chance POPS elsewhere for Thursday night.
Also, some elevated instability and steeper mid level lapse rates
will lead to the possibility of thunderstorms along and south of a
Brownwood to Ozona line. The main hazards will be dangerous cloud
to ground lightning and small hail with the stronger storms. For
Friday, scattered showers will continue mainly east of an Abilene
to San Angelo line during the morning and then only a few showers
by afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch will be
possible mainly across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country
for this event.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)

Looks like a dry forecast for the weekend through the middle of
next week. Upper level west-northwest flow will bring dry
conditions and mild temperatures. Highs will be mainly in the 50s,
with 60s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  43  64  39  51  35 /  10   5  40  30  10
San Angelo  43  66  42  56  35 /  10   5  50  30   5
Junction  46  69  44  56  36 /  10  10  70  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





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