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141
FXUS64 KSJT 222315
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A few very high based, very isolated, showers and thunderstorms
developing across West Central Texas. Radar trends suggest that the
Junction and Sonora sites, KJCT and KSOA, would be the only 2 that
might be affected by one of the storms, and even that would be highly
unlikely. Thus, will not mention in the terminal forecast at this
time. Will monitor and update as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and east to southeast winds should continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

A strong subtropical ridge remains anchored over the southern
Rockies this afternoon with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam at
the center of the anticyclone. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
over portions of West TX, basically between Lubbock and San Angelo,
moving southwest toward the Permian Basin. A few cells have
developed within the CWA from near Sweetwater to Sterling City.
Surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees have effectively
removed the cap, tapping into sufficient instability to support
thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis from the RAP indicates MLCAPE values
on the order of 1500 J/kg. With weak winds aloft, ordinary cells
will be the convective mode with a classic microburst profile in
place per point soundings. Isolated thunderstorms were carried
through 10 PM generally west of a line from Sweetwater to Mertzon.

Otherwise, we`ll see light winds overnight with temperatures falling
into the low to mid 70s by sunrise. Any thunderstorms lingering into
the evening hours should quickly dissipate by sunset. Temperatures
will again warm to near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon with light
winds from a generally easterly direction.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

An upper ridge centered over northern New Mexico and the northern
Panhandle and extending north into south-central Canada will
continue to minimize our precipitation chances while giving us above
normal temperatures through the coming weekend. A developing upper
trough over the eastern half of then nation will displace the upper
ridge to the west through the by the beginning of next week. As the
upper ridge moves west there will be some relief from the unseasonal
heat as afternoon highs drop from the upper 90s and triple digits
down to the mid and upper 90s beginning next Monday. Models are
indicating a frontal boundary moving as far south as the Red River
Valley on Monday may provide a focus for some convective activity.
At this time the best chances of rainfall would be north of the
forecast area with a slight chance of some activity moving south
into at least our northern CWA. The models are also showing a TUTT
low mowing west over deep south Texas which should keep any
associated rainfall south of our area. In any event, given the
inherent uncertainty in the models this far out, will keep the
forecast dry at this time.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  74 100  74 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  73 100  71 101  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  71  98  71  98  72 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








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