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832
FXUS64 KSJT 010449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Starting to see some stratus develop across the Hill Country of
Texas late this evening. Some of this stratus will likely spread
north across the southern terminals after 09Z and will include
MVFR ceilings at KJCT, with TEMPO MVFR at KSOA this forecast
cycle. Stratus will scatter out by mid morning with VFR for the
rest of the forecast period. South winds will become gusty on
Monday with winds diminishing by early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Sonora,
Brady, and Junction may see some scattered low clouds near sunrise
Monday morning that should dissipate quickly, much like this
morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight and into the day tomorrow
at San Angelo and Abilene.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

A quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas with flat ridging
pattern aloft. South winds have been on the increase today, in
response to lee side trough development from the Texas Panhandle
into extreme southeastern New Mexico, and increased surface
pressure gradient. Winds will decrease across the southern half of
our area this evening and tonight, but remain elevated across our
northern counties. Anticipate patchy low cloud development in some
of our southern and southeastern counties early Monday morning.
The NAM was on target with the low cloud development early this
morning. With some uncertainty, not going quite as extensive as
the NAM would indicate, but leaning toward its solution with an
increase in low clouds from the south by early Monday morning. Low
temperatures tonight should be near or slightly above what
occurred last night. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand east
into our area Monday, and expect to have afternoon highs a couple
of degrees warmer than today.

19

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)

The main highlights to the forecast will be a mainly dominant
ridge through the work week, and a potential cold front moving
through the area by next weekend.

Upper level ridging has already begun to re-assert its influence
over the area today, and this is expected to continue through the
rest of the work week. However, as was mentioned in the previous
AFD, there is currently a disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula. This mass of activity is
expected to move to the north/northwest into Mexico over the next
few days, and could become more organized as it does so. The only
affects expected for our area at this time are maybe some isolated
showers southeast of a San Saba to Sonora line, and that may be
optimistic as far as northern extent of any showers. With the
ridge re-establishing itself, it seems unlikely that any tropical
activity would be able to push this far north, especially since
the steering flow for where this activity is currently would be
mainly to the west across interior Mexico. However, we will be
watching this closely should this activity become more organized.

Further out in the long term, medium range models move a shortwave
trough east roughly along the U. S./Canadian border into the Great
Lakes late in the week, and this results in surface ridging strong
enough to bring a front into the area. Whether or not said front
can make it into our area and result in a substantial chance for
precipitation is still uncertain at this time. However, since both
the ECMWF and GFS are showing the front moving into Texas, and
breaking out precipitation for our area, will go ahead and
introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late next
weekend. Exact timing and placement is still very uncertain at
this point.

Hot through Tuesday, with slightly cooler temperatures after
Wednesday, and then possibly even cooler depending on the southern
extent of the cold front.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  98  74  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  74  99  74  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  75  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







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