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[Printable]
766
FXUS64 KSJT 291125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
524 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
A cold front will move south across West Central Texas this
morning, exiting the southern terminals by 17Z. Expect northeast
winds with gusts to 25 knots behind the front late this morning
and afternoon. The winds will begin to decrease tonight. Expect
VFR conditions during the next 24 hours. However, mid level clouds
will develop across the area by early this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A cold front will move south across West Central Texas today. Expect
northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph and cooler
temperatures behind the front. Highs will range from the lower 60s
across the Big Country to the upper 60s to around 70 along the I-10
corridor. Also, increasing clouds as mid an upper level Pacific
moisture is transported northeast.

For tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies as Pacific moisture
continues to increase along with some weak isentropic lift. Light
rain may move into far western areas by Friday morning. However,
will keep the forecast dry for the next 24 hours as confidence is
not high.

21

LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)

By early Friday an upper Pacific trough that stretches south
along the Baja Peninsula will have developed a closed low over the
northern Baja. The forecast area will be coming under a southwest
flow aloft as an upper shortwave ridge over the southern plains
builds to the east ahead of the approaching Pacific trough.
Abundant cloud cover along with periodic disturbances embedded in
the southwest flow aloft will move over the forecast area during
the day on Friday with rain chances increasing from west to east.

The closed low over the northern Baja will begin to separate from
its parent upper trough and trek southward down the Baja Peninsula
through the coming weekend. The upper trough will continue to
move to the east bringing an increasing chance of rainfall to the
forecast area through the weekend. The best chance of rain will be
Friday night through Saturday night with precipitation chances
ending from west to east on Sunday. By Sunday evening the upper
trough will be east of the forecast area with any associated
rainfall also east of the area. Highs through the weekend will be
in the upper 40s to the lower 50s with morning lows in the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

A weak cold front will push colder dryer air into the area on
Sunday with Monday morning lows dropping into the upper 20s across
the entire forecast area. Dry conditions will persist through mid-
week with afternoon highs in the upper 40s on Monday warming into
the mid 50s to the lower 60s by Wednesday. Morning lows on Tuesday
will be in the lower 30s with Wednesday morning lows in the upper
30s to around 40.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  62  36  49  40  48 /   0   5  20  60  80
San Angelo  67  38  52  41  52 /   0   5  20  60  80
Junction  72  42  55  42  55 /   0   5  10  60  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








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