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[Printable]
369
FXUS64 KSHV 260456
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECTING
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 27/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY MIST/BR...THAT WILL BE BRIEFLY IFR IN
SOME LOCATIONS. VFR VISIBILITY RETURNING BY 14Z WHERE FOG/MIST
FORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
26/14Z INCREASING AND BECOMING SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...AND THESE SHOW NO SIGNS OF BUDGING MUCH. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR ERN AREAS. WHILE DEWPOINTS MAY FALL SOME OVERNIGHT...DO NOT
SEE HOW THEY WILL FALL MUCH...AND THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS WOULD
NECESSARILY BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SW AR/N CENTRAL
LA. CONSIDERING THAT THE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
MUCH...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED MENTION INTO
THE WX GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED TODAY ARE EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS WILL PERSIST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
80S. SLY SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MORE WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY BUT THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION. THE
RETURN OF LOW LVL SLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE
NWD AND STRATUS TO ADVECT NWD FROM THE GULF OF MX MONDAY MORNING.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER VERY LOW. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH VERY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT
COMBINED WITH THE TIME FRAME INVOLVED...THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE N OF I-20 ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SRN
AR/NRN LA ON WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SECOND FRONT BUT
I HAVE TROUBLE BUYING THAT SOLUTION. NLY SFC WINDS AND NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHEN THE SECOND
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. THEREFORE...KEPT THE SECOND FROPA DRY.

FCST BEYOND 00Z THURSDAY IS POP FREE. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE AND A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL CONUS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE BIG STORY WILL LIKELY BE
THE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WILL BE DISLODGED FROM NRN
CANADA TO SWEEP SEWD INTO THE OHIO RV VALLEY. SOME OF THIS COLD
AIR WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  86  60  86  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  58  86  59  85  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  58  86  59  84  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  62  85  61  84  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  60  86  58  85  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  62  85  63  84  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  60  86  60  85  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  59  87  59  85  64 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






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