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737
FXUS64 KSHV 250015
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET BY GREAT CONTRAST WITH ONLY SOME LATE DAY HEATING WITH
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTING/BREAKING ALL DAY. OUR SFC WINDS STILL
REFLECT HAVING THE BACK DOOR (NE) KICKED IN WITH A SORT OF A WEAK
FROPA IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS STRAIGHT LINE WIND STORM. LITTLE
IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
LIFTS AWAY STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE EASTERLY ACTIVITY
UNDERNEATH. JUST SOME BRIEF DAYBREAK IFR/MVFR BR/FG AND A FEW CIGS
IMPROVING MUCH EARLIER. SFC...VRB AROUND 5KTS/NE FLOW ALOFT ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MCS COLD POOL STILL REMAINS RATHER DEEP ACROSS OUR REGION...EVIDENCED
BY THE LACK OF CU OVER THE WSW SECTIONS OF E TX...AND TEMPS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 DEGREES ATTM. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OVER EXTREME SE TX AS WELL AS SRN LA AND NEAR/E OF
THE MS RIVER AROUND THE OUTER RING OF THIS BNDRY...WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UNDERWAY ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO S LA NEAR
A WEAK SFC TROUGH. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL
TRYING TO BACKDOOR SW ACROSS ECNTRL AR ATTM...BUT IS SLOW TO DO
SO...WITH THE WRF HAVING INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DRIER AIR
BACKDOORING INTO SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE HALTING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT HAS ENTRENCHED
SW AR/NW LA IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AS OF MID
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCT CU FIELD MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WEDGE OVER SE OK/SW AR/PORTIONS OF N LA. IT/S
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS WHAT THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...AND HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MILDER ON
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER SCNTRL AR/NE LA AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BE
SLOWER TO FILTER SW.

HOTTER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM BEGINS TO
EXPAND E TO THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SWRLY SFC WINDS SHOULD YIELD LOW
LEVEL DRYING AND ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
PERIOD...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK W MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT
WILL DIG S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE COOLER AIR MAY LAG THE FRONT AGAIN. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SE ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MAY STALL OVER E TX/CNTRL LA
TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GENERAL TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THIS SFC BNDRY LIKELY
PLAYING A ROLE IN FOCUSING MORE SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
EVEN MORE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
NOT TOO BAD THOUGH AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  93  71  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  70  93  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  69  93  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






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