weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
[Printable]
761
FXUS66 KSGX 191600
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SOME WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING BUILDUPS AND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHLAND AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND
STRONG WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.  A TRANSITORY RIDGE
WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE COOLING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA
THIS MORNING....AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE DIGS ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR AND SUNNY
THIS MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FEW LOW
CLOUDS REFORMING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS SINCE SUNRISE...WITH THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING SHOWING A
MARINE INVERSION AROUND 3100 FEET.  THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.8 INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...DRY AND WARMER WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  HOWEVER...A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.  THE MARINE
LAYER WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SHALLOW EACH NIGHT...FALLING TO BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET TONIGHT AND THEN FALLING EVEN MORE BY MONDAY
MORNING.  THEREFORE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE COOLING TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.  THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AS WELL...PUSHING BACK INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THAT BEING SAID...IT
APPEARS THAT ALL THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH.  THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE EVEN LOOKS SLIM...BUT THAT COULD
CHANGE.  THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH THOUGH WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS.  IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG AND
WEST WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THESE DAYS...WITH BLOWING DUST OR SAND A POSSIBLE ISSUE.

AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...A
TRANSITORY AND WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
WILL BRING SOME MODEST WARMING TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS
AGAIN AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH MAY TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.  FOR NOW...IT IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT AT LEAST IT
APPEARS THAT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COULD SEE ANOTHER
DECENT SOAKING BEFORE THIS SPRING ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
191520Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHES OF BKN-OVC STRATUS OVER SOUTHWEST
SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN THE 2000-3000 FT MSL LAYER WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT
THROUGH 1900 UTC. OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND FEW-SCT CLDS
2000-3000 FT MSL THROUGH 20/0000 UTC. 20/0000-1500 UTC...PATCHY
STRATUS GRADUALLY FORMING WITHIN 15-20 SM OF THE COAST WITH BASES
800-1200 FT MSL AND TOPS 1200-1600 FT MSL. TIMING OF STRATUS
OCCURRENCE FOR KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS. EXPECT LOCAL VIS 3-5SM BR.

MTNS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 12000 FT MSL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VIS WILL BE MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THE MTNS DURING THE 1800-2300 UTC TIME-PERIOD
WHICH MAY BRING LOCAL VIS AOB 5SM...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS TO 35 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...AND GUSTS IN
THE INNER WATERS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH A 7-9 FOOT SHORT-PERIOD SWELL TO LIKELY BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS...AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE