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005
FXUS66 KSGX 302022
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
122 PM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BEACHES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COASTAL EDDY AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND FROM THE
COAST TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...AND
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND AROUND THE SAME
ELSEWHERE COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP INLAND AREAS TO SLOWLY COOL
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE A COASTAL EDDY WILL HELP
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND OVER THE
COAST AND VALLEYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRAVERSES TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SHIFTING THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS AN
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND ALLOW THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN EVEN
FURTHER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG REACHING THE FAR
INLAND VALLEYS EACH MORNING. DRY WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 30/1200 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE FAR EXTENDED WITH KEEPING THE TROUGH OFF
OF THE WEST COAST...AND CENTERING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
TEXAS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MOST LIKELY KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR EAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


HINTS AT MOIST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
302008Z...COAST/VALLEYS...THROUGH 31/0200 UTC...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...EXCEPT THERES A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN STRATUS 1200-1500 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE COAST. 31/0200-0900 UTC...STRATUS
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF THE
COAST...WITH BASES 1200-1700 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND TOPS
1700-2300 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH 31/1400 UTC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS ARRIVAL TO
KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA IS LOW-TO-MODERATE...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS OCCURRENCE AND MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING
HEIGHTS. LOCAL VISIBILITY OF 2-5 MILES WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND
MESAS. STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE 31/1500-2000 UTC
TIME-FRAME.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND FEW CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 20000 FT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
108 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS...AND LOCAL
5 FOOT SETS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES AND
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON









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