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708 FXUS63 KSGF 311141 AAA AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 641 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014 ...Updated Aviation Section... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move south into the area. Temperatures will continue to fall through the remainder of the morning. By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic. For most of the area, daily highs have already been met. As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely tank this evening. Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7 or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight. Low temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to mid 20s. It is important to note that in some localized areas, particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are entirely possible, if not probable. Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover into the upper 40s and low 50s. A continued warming trend is then expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas. Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system will be able to tap into some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area. Current indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning. Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late in the workweek and/or next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 Strong cold front is now well south of the area. North winds will be brisk and gusty, especially this morning into early this afternoon, and slacken heading into the mid/late afternoon hours. Band of stratus will bring a brief period of high end MVFR at SGF and BBG this morning, though this cloud deck should quickly sweep through the area over the next few hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will be the rule as strong surface high pressure builds into the area. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 512 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 Record lows for November 1. SITE...TEMP..YEAR SGF...23...1991 JLN...22...1991 UNO...17...1993 VIH...21...1954 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boxell LONG TERM...Boxell AVIATION...Gagan CLIMATE...Boxell