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149 FXUS63 KSGF 271056 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 556 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014 ...12z Aviation Forecast Update... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Friday Night) Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning compared to this time yesterday morning. Widely scattered convection dissipated shortly before midnight, leaving a mainly clear sky in its wake. Today will be similar to yesterday. Mainly clear to start the day, with another round of scattered storms expected during the afternoon. Air temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower this afternoon, however, an increase in dewpoints will keep heat index values in the 98F to 105F range. As a result, the heat advisory remains in effect into early this evening. Like yesterday, shear will be low and MUCAPE will be large, so a few pulse severe storms will be possible. Not quite sure we`ll see a repeat performance of the golf ball hail like we saw in Eldorado Springs yesterday, but a few storms with quarter sized hail and localized downburst winds in excess of 60 mph are plausible. Storms should subside after sunset. Thursday looks to be a more quiet day, and still hot as the upper level ridge gives one last surge ahead of an incoming trough that should arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame. Will keep an eye on the need to extend the heat advisory. At this juncture, an extension may not be needed as dewpoints look to mix out during the afternoon. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out Thursday afternoon, the better chances look to be to our north and east. As mentioned above, a weak trough will enter from the west beginning Friday. Rain chances will gradually enter from west to east Friday into Friday night, and this looks to be our best chance for a more widespread brand of rain. Increase in clouds and rain chances will result in a 5 to 10 degree drop in highs for Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 226 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 The shortwave will be moving across the Midwest on Saturday with likely precip chances across the Missouri Ozarks. Anyone with outdoor activities will need to monitor later forecast and have a back up plan around thunderstorms. Folks out on the water...area lakes and rivers will need to watch out for the lightning on Saturday. Followed the ECMWF more with regards to the forecast on Sunday as the shortwave will be out of the area and precip chances will lower as well. Labor Day looks like a typical day for late Summer with highs around 90 and a slight chance for an afternoon storm. The upper level pattern for early next week looks zonal with seasonable temperatures and starting off the week drier. The model solutions diverge somewhat by the middle of next week with the GFS keeping the weather dry and the ECMWF has a stalled out or slow moving front in the area with precip chances. Went ahead and followed a little more closely with the ECMWF and included chance pops for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 551 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014 Mainly VFR will prevail at all area airports across the Missouri Ozarks through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds this morning will give way to a light southeast wind around 5 knots by midday through the afternoon. Have included a prob30 group for late afternoon into the early evening hours for scattered convection to develop. Most of the convection should be dissipate by sunset this evening and it will be another quiet night tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Griffin