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285
FXUS61 KRLX 190703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM







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