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[Printable]
894
FXUS61 KRLX 241923
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING SOME MVFR/VFR
CLOUDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY









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