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[Printable]
011
FXUS61 KRLX 240007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
807 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILS NORTH OPF THE AREA THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH NW FLOW AND STRATOCU OVER NE WV DIMINISHING.

PREV DISCN...
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN
SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER
A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES
A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN
LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT DOES NOW HAVE A BETTER MOISTURE FEED
AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS
IS MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY
CONDITIONS OF LATE. DESPITE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WILL ONLY
SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN A TOUCH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...
LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWEST NAM AND TOWARD THE FASTEST GFS AND
ECMWF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER UP NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ELSEWHERE BACK INTO
THE 70S SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING N OF THE4 AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.  A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT AND THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU
MORNING AND LIGHT E TO SE THU AFTERNOON.  LIGHT N FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT S THU
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/LS
NEAR TERM...TRM/LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM







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