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756
FXUS61 KRLX 310558
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST/INTENSIFYING OFF NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY. COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
TRIMMED UP THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE POPS LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
ALSO NUDGED UP THE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE
TRENDING THEM DOWN A COUPLE NOTCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TO OUR EAST BY LATER TONIGHT. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD AID THE FORMATION OF SOME FOG...BUT WITH THE
BUILDING CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG TO BE DENSE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

TEMPS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO APPEAR TO BE COOL...HOWEVER...DID NOT GO
QUITE AS LOW AS SOME GUIDANCE AS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FIRST MEANINGFUL SNOWS OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS AND SW VA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...

THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES FRIDAY IN A BIG WAY...WITH QUITE THE COLD
SHOT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TAKING IT THRU W OH...E KY...E
TN AND W NC. GOOD LIFT AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT QUITE A BIT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOST PLACES FRI NIGHT. WITH CAA
SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO JUST BELOW 0C ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HAVE
TRANSITIONED ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3 KFT TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 03Z. THIS
TRANSITION GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGE TOPS IN SW VA...NE KY...C AND S WV AFTER
06Z. DID ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX FOR HTS AND CRW METRO AREAS
PREDAWN SATURDAY. ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS...A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS RAIN FOR AREAS LIKE PKB...CKB...AND PERHAPS
EKN...AS THE CORE OF COLD POOL STAYS TUCKED IN WITH THE UPPER LOW.

ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE COAL FIELDS LOOK TO RANGE
FROM A COATING TO AN INCH. ONCE INTO SW VA AND SE WV...THESE AREAS
MAY SEE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH MODEL CONSENSUS RANGING 1
TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS TO AN UPSLOPE EVENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP OVER THE LOWLANDS ENDING AS PERHAPS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OR EVEN DRIZZLE. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN
AREAS ABOVE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE MOISTURE QUICKLY ERODES SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH QUITE A BIT
OF UPSLOPE LIFT REMAINS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WITH A UNFAVORABLE N
TRAJECTORY TO THE FLOW AND MARGINAL SATURATION FOR ICE
CRYSTALS...HARD TO FIGURE UPSLOPE SNOW. HAVE LINGERED HIGH POPS
FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE N MOUNTAINS FOR A TIME AND KEPT IT SNOW
FOR NOW WITH MAYBE ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES. THIS COULD END UP BEING
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR DICKENSON/BUCHANAN IN SW VA AND MCDOWELL/WYOMING IN SE
WV WITH COUNTY WIDE AVG CRITERIA BEING 2 INCHES. ELECTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FROM RALEIGH COUNTY AND UP THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL AS HIGHER
CRITERIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED TEMPS. HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW WE GO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GRADIENT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW STRATUS
PERHAPS. BEST CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE WOULD BE ACROSS SE OH/NE KY
AND W WV WHERE CLEARING OCCURS AND WINDS SLACKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...WILL WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIPPLES UP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING OVER WEST VIRGINIA MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL MVFR VALLEY
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AT 5 TO 10 THSD FT INCREASING W TO E 06Z TO 15Z
TODAY.  SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES BY 15Z...SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER TRI STATE AROUND HTS INCLUDING NE KY
AND SE OHIO 18Z TO 21Z AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES...AHEAD OF
STRONG 500 MB LOW.  WITH THIS SUPPORT DROPPING SE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WV...TRIED TO BE SLOW LOWERING CONDITIONS FURTHER N...INCLUDING
VCNTY CKB AND NORTH CENTRAL WV.

CEILINGS LOWERING INTO 1 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN
RAIN...BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW MAINLY S OF A HTS-CRW LINE BY 03Z
AND MOSTLY SNOW BY 03Z OVER DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN SW VA
UNDER THE COOL POOL ALOFT.

SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SE
INTO THE BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA 00Z TO 03Z. IN CONTRAST...WINDS NEAR SURFACE REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL WV INCLUDING CKB THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS 18Z TODAY
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 10/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR IN RAIN/SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS 06Z TO 18Z
SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
INCLUDING AROUND EKN AND BKW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/LS
NEAR TERM...26/LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











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