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485
FXUS61 KRLX 290736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF AN UNTRUSTWORTHY WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD SPARK SOME
EVENING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE TUG FORK VALLEY.

AFTER THIS BRIEF AND MODEST COOL DOWN...A WARM FRONT RETURNS TO
BRING THE AREA BACK INTO VERY WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MARKING THE TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVELS INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN EFFECT IN THE SHORT TERM EVEN THOUGH THE TRANSITION BEGINS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GETTING BACK TO THE WARM FRONT...USING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR
TIMING BRINGS CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AROUND
THE 00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. ALWAYS LIKE TO GIVE A MODEST BUFFER ON
THE FRONT OF WARM FRONTS AS THE MODELS CAN HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH
THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES. WILL BE FIGHTING A SETTING SUN...SO
THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION...AND IN THE END...THINK A
SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST IS BEST. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES OVER BKW
KEEP THE CHANCES UNDER 40 PERCENT.

WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASE TOWARDS 12Z. POPS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH...AND MAY BE ABLE TO EVEN CLEAR MUCH OF THE SKY OVER THE
TUG FORK VALLEY BY DAWN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH AND IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING COOLER AIR...VALUES REBOUND AGAIN TOMORROW BACK
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING QUICKER WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS
AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE...HPC AND THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE INITIAL SURGE AND GREATEST QPF WITH
THIS TROPICAL LIKE FEATURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY PRECIP FREE...BUT
WARMER AND MORE HUMID...AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDING COOL FRONT STILL TO THE WEST...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY. IN GENERAL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR
70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HTS AND CRW BRINGING A LIGHT WIND AT LAST OB...WHICH WOULD SERVE
TO HOLD ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT BAY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO. STILL KEEP HTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE WITHOUT GOING TO LIFR AS
SUPPORTED BY LAMP GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE...LIFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE NIGHT...WITH EKN EXPECTED TO DROP
THE SOONEST. BKW NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26









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