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023
FXUS61 KRLX 181206
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT/DISSIPATES.
STORM SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM
EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8 AM UPDATE...UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ON
ALL MODELS...WILL PULL POPS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. EVEN THERE...WILL ONLY RUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SOME WIND PICKING UP LATE TONIGHT...WILL
RUN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A WEAK MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY









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