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504
FXUS61 KRLX 201844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER
MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED
HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS
HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS
ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT
LONGER.

STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING
UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON SATURDAY...AS
SURFACE  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST....AND A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...ON SATURDAY...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS WARMER
AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF FORECAST. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY...WILL CREATE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...AND EXPECT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSES TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THIS...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DROPS IN CIG/VIS...BUT HAVE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT EKN. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING IN FRIDAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY W/NW WINDS TODAY WILL
DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN HAVE BRIEF DROPS INTO IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









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