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[Printable]
769
FXUS65 KREV 301016
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
316 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ON THE COOLER SIDE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIERRA VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING AS SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED WHILE TEMPERATURES
COOL TO SATURATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A WEEK PERTURBATION WILL
DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
EAST OF A CEDARVILLE TO WALKER LAKE LINE. GUSTS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG ONLY REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WAVE WILL REINFORCE COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS, AND COOL AIR
ADVECTION, WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THIS
PAST SPRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL APPROACH FREEZING TONIGHT MAINLY
IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, THEN MORE EXTENSIVELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST
OF HIGHWAY 95. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE MASON VALLEY, SMITH
VALLEY, FALLON AREA, LOVELOCK AREA, AND THE GRASS VALLEY. THOSE
WITH CROPS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS
MAY WISH TO COVER THEM. WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT SPOTS IN THESE
LOCATIONS WILL REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
THE EXTENT OF THE AREA IMPACTED CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
THEREFORE, A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, BENIGN CONDITIONS ENSUE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING
A RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE HOLD ON TO THE RIDGE.
WITH DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WOULD REALLY ONLY RESULT IN SOME
CHANGE TO THE HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND LITTLE ELSE.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WRN NV VALLEYS ALONG WITH UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. GIVEN RISING HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MID SLOPES COULD BE WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS FOR MORNING
LOWS. INVERSIONS SETTLE INTO THE VALLEYS EACH MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST...BUT IF RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN A LITTLE FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT MORE
FOR MONDAY. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MARTIS VALLEY THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING. SO IFR
FOR FAVORED SIERRA VALLEYS FOR FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK DRY FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY.

A SECONDARY WAVE COULD BRING SOME MID CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EITHER THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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