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[Printable]
879
FXUS62 KRAH 250711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX WILL PUSH SE OFF THE SC/GA COAST THIS
MORNING... LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE SW... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN ALSO FROM THE SW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
INCLUDING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT DEEP DRY AIR OVER NC TODAY
WITH STABLE MID LEVELS. PLENTIFUL SUN AND THICKNESSES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 72-76.
STRONG VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE BASE OF A LOW CROSSING SE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
(NOW OVER THE MIDWEST) TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC TONIGHT. SURFACE
FLOW FROM THE WEST OR WSW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH THE TIGHTENING
MSLP GRADIENT... HOWEVER THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD HOLD NORTH OF THE
NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW POCKET OF MOISTURE
FROM 850-750 MB DROPPING SE THROUGH NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE AT THIS LEVEL... HOWEVER THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER... AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE LARGE PART OF TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY STIRRED NEAR-SURFACE AIR
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 45-50.

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH OFF THE SC/GA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING... AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR
FROM THE LOW LEVELS ON UP WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD COVER... AND ONLY
SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 6 000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE NORTH. THE ONE EXCEPTION: WE ARE
WATCHING OUT FOR POTENTIAL SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAINLY AFFECTING RWI
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. BUT AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT... COMING FROM A SW/W/NW
DIRECTION UNDER 6 KTS TODAY... BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT MAINLY NW
TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES 09Z-13Z SUN... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH INITIAL DRY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NW TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




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