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345
FXUS65 KPUB 161757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TONIGHT TO
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...SPANISH PEAKS AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
HAVE EXPANDED OUR WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE WRN LAS
ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMS IN THESE ZONES WILL
BE VERY VARIABLE AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH HIGH SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LIKELY BELOW
6500 FEET. OF COURSE...A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS COULD MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE IN EXACT ACCUMS FOR THIS AREA. BELIEVE A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA OF THE ZONES WILL BE INVOLVED TO JUSTIFY
AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
TEMPS MAY END UP A BIT HIGHER TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH TO FALL BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOR THE S
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...

CURRENTLY...

COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NE CO AT 3AM...WITH A LEE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. 3H PRESSURE PRESSURE CHART WAS SHOWING
4 4 MB RISE OVER WYOMING. REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE CO/WY BORDER...WITH VIRGA LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
MTNS OVER W CO.

TODAY...

COOL FRONT OVER THE CO/WY BORDER REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSCEND
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO AROUND TO NW-N-
NE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. BETTER LLVL MOISTURE OVER NE CO WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE C MTN AREAS LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE PLAINS/S MTNS...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY INCREASING TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S PLAINS
AND VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO SHOW THAT PRECIP IS GOING TO
BE MORE LOCALIZED...AND TIED MAINLY TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OF THE S
MTNS....ESPECIALLY THE WET MTNS AND THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT RATON MESA REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ITS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ~6 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OCCURRING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. I HAVE CHANGED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND S MTN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL GET 4-8"...BUT SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE E SLOPES OF THE WET
MTNS AND S SANGRES MAY SEE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE. A BAND OF PRECIP
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK OUT OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING S OF US-50. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS (AREAS GENERALLY ABOVE
~6000 FT)...BUT ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 2" ON GRASSY
AREAS.

NOTE THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE C MTN
AREA NOR THE SW MTNS TONITE. STD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ON TAP DURING THE MAJORITY
OF THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY ISSUES BEING POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. ALSO...FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LONG-TERM METEOROLOGICAL WINDOW.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT GENERALLY TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(IN THE FORM OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD THEN
RETURN TO PRIMARILY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER(I.E. PRIMARILY IN KANSAS) ON SATURDAY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRY-LINE NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDS FROM MONDAY
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE AT 00Z TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
IDAHO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014.

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVE. EXPECT SCT SHRASN TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z AT THE TAF
SITES...AND WILL BECOME STEADY AT KCOS AFTER 00Z...AND KPUB AFTER
01Z. COULD SEE IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS IN THE 01-06Z TIME FRAME.
DEPENDING ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...SOME PC FG OR BR CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 15Z THU MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5500-6000 FEET...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT KPUB LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE




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