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423
FXUS65 KPUB 221730
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED TO BACK OFF POPS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
POPS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS GREAT BASIN WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENTLY...

A 500 MB TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TWO BROKEN LINES OF PRECIP WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER NE
CO WHICH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO WY...AND A 2ND LINE OF
PRECIP...INCLUDING THUNDER..WAS OVER THE CENTRAL WEST SLOPE AND WAS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. OVER OUR FCST AREA...RADAR WAS NOT INDICATING
MUCH ALTHOUGH THE WEBCAMS AT SEVERAL HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOWED WET
CONDITIONS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXTENDED
FROM ROUGHLY KLIC TO KPUB.

TODAY...

OVERALL...I EXPECT IT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN TH L/M70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 60S UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY...60S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MOST MTN AREAS. THE SHOWERS OVER THE C PART OF THE STATE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE C MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFT
OUT LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/-
TSRA TO MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL I EXPECT THE PLAINS TO BE DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. WE MAY SEE SOME -TSRA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I DID NOTICE THAT THE
EURO GUIDANCE WAS A BIT HIGHER ON POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IGNORED
THIS DATA FOR NOW GIVEN PAUCITY OF PRECIP BEING PREDICTED BY THE
SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REACH DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST OF PLAINS WITH SOME 30S IN N EL PASO
COUNTY. VALLEYS AND MTNS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 20S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A STORM MOVING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK WOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR THE
PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OVER COLORADO FOR
MONDAY. THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 9 KFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART
MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM...OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST. SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH CLEARINGS SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW




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