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435
FXUS65 KPUB 200551
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...

TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...SAVE AN AREA OF 40S ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY
WHERE MIXING HAS BEEN POOR. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY...SO WE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR COLD READING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE
TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE NOW SEEN MOVING ASHORE OVER NRN CA AND THE PACNW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTER-MTN REGION AND ON THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES
ON THU. THE TRAILING SRN END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS CO THU
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN
A FEW/ISOLD SHSN OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THE SAWATCH
RANGE...BUT ANY ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT BY HIGH
CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY POOR LLVL ATMOSPHERIC MIXING...BUT THE PASSING
WAVE MAY HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

THU NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS CO...BUT THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS QUITE DRY...WITH MAYBE JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVR SOME OF THE
MTNS AREAS.  EARLY FRI MORNING...THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER OF THE
STATE...BUT FOR NOW WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY IN THAT AREA.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY WHILE AN UPR
LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO SRN AZ. WITH THE UPR LOW GOING SO FAR
SOUTH...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE FORECAST AREA WX AND SO
FRI IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.

SAT THAT UPR LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE
FLOW ALOFT OVR CO BECOMES WESTERLY.  IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE ALONG THE CONTDVD...BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO THAT AREA LATE
IN THE DAY.  SAT NIGHT THE UPR TROF WL DEEPEN OVR CO AND WL BE
MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE STATE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.  THIS WL BRING
SNOW TO THE CONTDVD SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW OVR THE EASTERN MTNS AND PLAINS. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND AVERAGE...BUT WL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY OVR
THE SERN PLAINS AND AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER OVR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND OVR THE FORECAST AREA MON AND TUE WITH
CONTINUED COOL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  MSTR IN THE FLOW WL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON WED WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING AN UPR TROF DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH WRLY FLOW ALOFT
OVR CO AND PCPN MOVING INTO THE CONTDVD LATE IN THE DAY.  THE GFS
SHOWS AND UPR RIDGE OVR THE WRN STATE AND CONTINUED NW FLOW OVR CO
AND MAYBE SOME SNOW CONTINUING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




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