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861
FXUS65 KPUB 290014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING EARLIER THAN GRIDS PROTRAYED FOR
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRIDS WERE UPDATED
TO REFLECT EARLIER END TO PRECIPITATION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

CURRENTLY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION AND
C MTNS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION WERE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH READING MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS HEATING
DECREASES...PRECIP WILL DECREASE WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE EVENING. WITH LIMITED CAPE...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY CLIP.

FOR TOMORROW...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST AND HEIGHTS BEING TO
RISE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS DRYING OUT AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S VALLEYS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE RELEGATED TO THE MTNS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINING DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...HOT AND DRY END OF AUGUST AND BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER...

EXTENDED FORECAST NOT LOOKING TOO ACTIVE AT THIS POINT. AFTER THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER
STRENGTHENING W-SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PLAINS ON THE
WARM SIDE AND MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE MTS...BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. SHOULD GET
INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH POPS
NEGLIGIBLE. MT AREAS WILL SEE COMFORTABLE 70S THIS WEEKEND.

AS THE JET STAYS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
COOLING OFF FOR MONDAY. WE THEN STAY UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC TO ZONAL
FLOW AS THE JET REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SET OFF SOME CONVECTION OVER KS
AND NE CO...POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO NE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE REMAIN ON THE DRY AND WARM SIDE.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY REAL RETURN OF THE MONSOON UNTIL POSSIBLY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A DEEPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PACNW
AND WE BEGIN TO SEE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW ALOFT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KCOS...KALS AND KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT EACH SITE...BUT PRECIP WILL BE
BRIEF AS STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH




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