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129
FXUS65 KPSR 241000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA












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