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033
FXUS65 KPSR 231203 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS SEEN IN THE PLOT AND SOUNDING DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 1 AM
SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN CA AND ARIZONA...WITH JUST A
BIT OF MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
PASS THRU THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND IN RESPONSE LOW/MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND EXCEED 30 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN 35-40 MPH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT WILL FALL OF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE DESERTS
BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 60S
MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH A HIGH OF 67 FORECAST FOR
PHOENIX UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 585DM OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. AS SUCH...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND THRU MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS RISING MAINLY INTO THE MID 70S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN
A BIT THURSDAY...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
AND BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED GUIDANCE CALLS FOR HIGHS TO RISE SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES...AND INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE HIGH AT PHOENIX WILL
CLIMB TO 81...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 70
DEGREES. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW
EACH DAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR NIGHTS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BECOMING VERY MESSY WITH
TIME...OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS AGREE THAT FAR SERN AZ AND SRN
AZ WILL STAY UNDER A RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THRU SATURDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU THE FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL
START TO FALL OFF BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL TURN NORTHERLY THIS MORNING AS
A DRY FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA.  AIRFIELDS WILL FAVOR A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT BY MIDDAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY BUT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AT THE
SURFACE DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR THIN CIRRUS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

STRONG NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR UNTIL ABOUT 16-17Z THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...STRONGEST OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS AND ISOLATED 35 KTS...BEFORE
SLOWLY WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG OVER THE IMPERIAL VALLEY BUT GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE
COMMON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONGER...NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF LLWS AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
THIN CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZINESS TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
LATE IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWNWARD. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT...WITH MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







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