weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  
[Printable]
257
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE