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326
FXPQ60 PGUM 200955 CCA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
402 PM CHST THU NOV 20 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WIND FLOW CONVERGENCE PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR GUAM. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. AS THE CONVERGENCE AREA WEAKENS
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
IS POSSIBLY FROM THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW NEAR THE
MARSHALLS. MODELS MOVE THIS AREA WEST AND NEAR THE MARIANAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER. IF IT
DOES...THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. NOT CONFIDENT
IN THIS SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
SWELL WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTH SWELL
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE WEEKEND. NONE OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS SAW A BIT OF CHANGE AS A WETTER PATTERN IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS INITIALIZE RATHER POORLY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. MODELS CONFINE MOISTURE TO A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR AND EAST OF MAJURO...NEGLECTING THE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR POHNPEI...OVER KOSRAE AND KWAJALEIN...AND OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAJURO IS IN A LULL OF WEATHER THIS
EVENING...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KOSRAE. AT
POHNPEI...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE HELD JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE...BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR ANY WESTWARD MOVEMENT. A WET...
CONVERGENT PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT COULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
DRIER WEATHER TO BRIEFLY RETURN TO MAJURO OR POHNPEI LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER AT CHUUK WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS HOLDING STEADY NEAR POHNPEI. FOLLOWING
REASONING ABOVE OF THE POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OF WEATHER OVER
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...FORECAST STILL BRINGS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ASSUMING A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
WEATHER. MODELS JUMP ON BOARD SHOWING A WET TREND OVER CHUUK BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BAND SETTING UP
NEAR OR OVER THE CHUUK LAGOON.

ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS SEEN NEAR YAP AND KOROR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DRIER WEATHER WAS SEEN JUST EAST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A WETTER PATTERN BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THERE
IS STILL NO DISCERNIBLE WEATHER FEATURES LATE IN THE WEEKEND OTHER
THAN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL BE OVER
CHUUK STATE THEN. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT






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