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627
FXPQ60 PGUM 312048 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
638 AM CHST SUN FEB 1 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST ZONES AS A
DIFFUSE SHEAR LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM GUAM. RADAR AND
SATELLITE INDICATE MINIMAL CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE OVERHEAD. THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE NEXT BOUNDARY TO AFFECT THE FORECAST ZONES
IS ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY COVERS WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
VIA REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. NEXT BOUNDARY WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT GFS GUIDANCE KEEPS QPF LOW AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHALLOW...BELOW 750 MB. GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL BRING
THE SHEAR LINE BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SPREADS
NORTHWARD. IF MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONVERGE TOWARD THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO...CLOUD COVER AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
RITIDIAN BUOY IS CARRYING A NORTH SWELL ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
WHAT IS IN THE SWELL GRIDS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED NORTH SWELL
UP A FOOT FOR TODAY. FETCH GENERATION AREA BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY
NEARING THE MARIANAS AND JAPAN LOOKS ROBUST...SO ANTICIPATE NORTH
SWELL WILL BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS AND SURF TO INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND TAKING PLACE
OVER MAJURO. CONVECTION HAS SINCE MOVED SOUTHWEST OF THE ATOLL AND
DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY WELL EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND AFFECT MAJURO TUESDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAJURO WATERS. ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ON POHNPEI AND KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS DEPICT LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OF MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS ON POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CHUUK. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NORTH OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THERE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CHUUK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE EAST OF YAP WILL NOT AFFECT THE ISLAND AS IT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST WHILE EMBEDDED IN DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LATEST
GFS RUN STILL SHOWS EXPANSIVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW REACHING INTO
YAP STATE AND PALAU OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER NNE WINDS WILL
BRING BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY SOUTH OF YAP SO SCATTERED COVERAGE
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW A SHEAR LINE AND ATTENDANT
SHOWERS REACHING INTO YAP STATE AGAIN ON TUESDAY BUT EXTENT OF
SHOWER COVERAGE IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS




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