weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  
[Printable]
018
FXPQ60 PGUM 260632
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
432 PM CHST WED NOV 26 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BROUGHT NORTHEAST TRADE-WINDS TO THE MARIANAS TODAY. A
DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS SHOW THAT A TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP INCREASED NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER
THE MARIANAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS OVER THE MARIANAS FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF GUAM.

THE GFS DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR CHUUK SUNDAY AND MOVES
IT SOUTH OF GUAM MONDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A CIRCULATION BUT
KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INITIALLY THE GFS-ENSEMBLE DOES NOT HAVE
THIS AND ONLY HAS AN ACTIVE TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N. GFS-ENSEMBLE
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A CIRCULATION AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BY WEDNESDAY. GFS TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND MOVES IT WEST OF GUAM AND NORTH OF YAP BY WEDNESDAY ECMWF
TAKES THE CIRCULATION NEAR YAP AND MOVES IT TO THE PI. NAVGEM IS
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS-ENSEMBLE

NONE OF THE MODELS TAKES A CIRCULATION OVER THE MARIANAS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE MODEL VARIANCE THEY AGREE ON NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS OF VARYING DEGREES OVER THE REGION. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON KEEPING RAINFALL ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS SATURDAY AND MAY
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE SWELL WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 5 TO 7 FEET THURSDAY. A NORTH SWELL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS SWELL WILL BE ONLY 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH
HIGHER NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE MARIANAS BY THE COMING WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED. THE INCREASED
WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PUMP UP THE COMBINED SEAS.
THESE SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION. CONVECTION
CONTINUES CONTINUALLY REDEVELOP ALONG A BROAD TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM POHNPEI TO BUTARITARI AND TARAWA
ATOLLS. A BRIEF LULL IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AT MAJURO
THURSDAY BUT AN EMBEDDED TROUGH CROSSING THE DATE LINE WILL PUSH
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWARD OVER MAJURO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE A MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
POHNPEI BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
POHNPEI FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EVEN INTO THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS BUT WILL WAIT
FOR A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO INTEGRATE EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR MAJURO.

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY...BUOY DATA AND WAVE WATCH OUTPUT SHOW
INCREASING SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS REGION.
KALO BUOY NOW SHOWS SEAS OF AROUND 8 FEET AND TRENDING QUICKLY
UPWARD. ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE WITH
HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS COMMENCING BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR
BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN
MICRONESIA STARTING TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST INTO CHUUK STATE.
EXPECTED SHOWERS TO BECOME SCATTERED BY LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
OVER CHUUK WITH DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
POHNPEI STATE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CHUUK SATURDAY BEFORE PUSHING WEST OF THE STATE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
YAP AND KOROR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF CONVECTION OVER YAP AND KOROR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF YAP MOVES WESTWARD. GFS
SHOWS A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH YAP STATE AND PALAU
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ECMWF RETAINS A QUIETER SCENARIO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LONG TERM AND CONTINUAL
ASSESSMENT OF THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH YAP STATE AND KOROR...SEAS MAY NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED AND CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO A POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS
SURF SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS






U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE