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386
FXPQ60 PGUM 270816 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
616 PM CHST WED AUG 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS.
AN UPPER LOW IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AROUND 18-20N AND 150-151E. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS AS IT MOVES WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LONG-AWAITED MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 PCT AT 15-22 KFT ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING. THIS HAS KILLED THE THUNDERSTORMS AND BROUGHT IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN WITH LITTLE CHANGE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN FORECAST AND DISCUSSION. A
WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PERSIST EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE REGION FROM EAST OF CHUUK...THEN SOUTH OF POHNPEI ACROSS
KOSRAE AND JUST NORTH OF MAJURO...THEN TO 180 AT 16N. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GOING TO SUSTAIN FAIR WEATHER FOR
CHUUK THRU THURSDAY...AND POHNPEI UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION ARE UPON KOSRAE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS AT MAJURO ARE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE. BY THIS
WEEKEND... THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT NORTH OF ALL
FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS COULD ALLOW LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER TO
RETURN.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED BY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR
FIJI AND SAMOA IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR
TONIGHT AND REACH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHER
SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES BUT HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA DISCUSSION ABOVE DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION
LINGERING NEAR KOROR AT 6N135E. THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UPPER LOW AT 4N137E. MODELS INDICATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
PLACES THROUGH THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON THE
GOOD WEATHER EARLIER FORECASTED AFTER SATURDAY FOR YAP AND KOROR.
CONFIDENCE IN THE KOROR AND YAP FORECAST IS LOW AFTER THURSDAY...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN BEFORE CHANGING THE FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA







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