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261
FXPQ60 PGUM 300627 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
427 PM CHST THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE MICRONESIA DISCUSSIONS

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W IS CENTERED WELL WEST OF GUAM AT ABOUT
13N138E...BUT A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ESE FROM THERE TO SOUTH OF
GUAM...THEN ON TO CHUUK AND BEYOND. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MARIANAS IN MOIST UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS MAINTAIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...AND THE
GFS IN PARTICULAR FORMS A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE MARIANAS FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH SUCH A CIRCULATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IN THE CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH...NOT READY TO BUY IT
UNTIL THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT AND SOMETHING SHOWS UP
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ANY CASE...LOOKS WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
BOOSTED SEAS JUST A BIT BASED ON BUOYS AND LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE BUT
OTHERWISE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES. SWELL DIRECTION HAS COME AROUND TO
ENE AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL PUT
THE HIGHEST SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MONSOON TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA.
A SMALL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF MAJURO WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN WATERS OF MAJURO AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM MAJURO LATER
TONIGHT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL APPROACH
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SATURDAY BUT MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AT MAJURO AND SHOULD BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ATOLL.
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AT KOSRAE THROUGH THE
WEEK. FOR POHNPEI...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
LIFTED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS SHOW A
LESS ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS POHNPEI STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ZEALAND WILL GENERATE A SOUTH
SWELL THAT MAY AFFECT MAJURO OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL WAVE MODEL
INDICATES A SMALL SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD COULD REACH THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY. FOR NOW...SWELL APPEARS TO BE SMALL AND TIDE
CYCLES ARE NOT AT HIGHEST LEVEL ABOVE MLLW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVENT CLOSELY BUT FOR NOW APPEARS SWELL
HEIGHT IS BELOW THAT OF WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED WEST OF GUAM WHICH WAS RECENTLY
UPGRADED TO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL BY JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF CHUUK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE WEST OF CHUUK WATERS FRIDAY. DRIER
WEATHER IS PROGGED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
YAP AND KOROR OVER THE COMING DAYS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS.
CONVERGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH YAP AND
KOROR. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN MONDAY AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS






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