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FXZS60 NSTU 230147
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
247 PM SST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F IS CENTERED
ABOUT 300 NM (OR 350 MILES) NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AS OF 22/2322Z.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHEAST-MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F. AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH ANCHORS TO THE
SOUTH OF SAMOA...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER SAVAII AND UPOLU STARTING TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING
OVER AMERICAN SAMOA ISLES DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THIS FCST PERIOD ARE GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
IF COMPUTER MODELS ARE CORRECT...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F WILL
USHER NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL TURN NORTH ON MONDAY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AT 15 TO 20 KT. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE
WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 5
INCHES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISSUANCE OF HYDROLOGICAL WATCH
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY FOR THIS EXPECTED EVENT.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL USHER
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE FCST ZONES DURING THE MID-WEEK...NONETHELESS THE MONSOONAL
TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR
NOW...ANTICIPATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TO DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT DURING WEDNESDAY...THEN DECLINING TO NEAR 5 TO 10 KT ON
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE A WET SPELL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F ADVANCES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO RISE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 FEET. WILL
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEW MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI










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