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278
FXZS60 NSTU 230051
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
151 PM SST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITHIN
THIS TROUGH IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST TO
NORTHEAST...FURTHER AWAY FROM AMERICAN SAMOA. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERY CUMULI REMAINING ACROSS THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SURROUNDING WATERS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE TERRITORY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH.

A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEW ZEALAND WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SAVAII. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECASTED TO SLIGHTLY
DEEPEN FRIDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS LOW
DEEPENING FURTHER INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS EVOLUTION AS NEWER MODELS POPULATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SURF ZONES AND
COASTAL WATERS OF AMERICAN SAMOA. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORIES
FOR HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE







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