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745
FXUS65 KPIH 020748
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
148 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A DRY BUT WARMER DAY ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO IS ON TAP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VS. LABOR DAY. IT
WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY APPRECIABLE IMPACTS RELATED TO WIND FOR TODAY. AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM SWINGS INLAND TOMORROW...THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER WITH IT...BUT
ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT IS OUT OF HERE BY AFTERNOON AND
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT. THERE WILL BE MORE WIND
TOMORROW...10-20MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 20-30 MPH
FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST AS LATE SUMMER PLOWING HAS
BEGUN...BUT ANY IMPACTS TO TRAFFIC AND SUCH SHOULD REMAIN LOW. WE
DESPITE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING WITH THIS STORM...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY THURSDAY...WE END UP WITH AN ELONGATED/SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS OF 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOW/MID 70S FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING A BIT ON WHERE TO PLACE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DESPITE A SIMILAR PATTERN
EVOLUTION. WE WILL THE LOW ALONG THE COAST BECOME THE DOMINANT
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE ISSUE OF LIES. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THIS RIDGE AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE FLATTER AND KEEPS ANYTHING ACROSS THE
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR BEAR LAKE. WE CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A SLOW
CLIMB EITHER WAY UNTIL ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON PULLING ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. AT SOME POINT...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS FOR SURE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORM ENDS UP
BEING...WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. DO EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY PERIOD ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER
COOLDOWN. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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