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069
FXUS61 KPHI 241343
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADUJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
AND DEWPTS BUT OTRW NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE NW. SFC DEWPTS ARE 10 TO 20 DEG F
LOWER THAN AT THIS TIME YDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.  EXPECT A MAINLY
SUNNY SKY...DRY WX AND WARMER TEMPS THAN ON WED. IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY EARLY, BUT THE WIND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. THE PRES GRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND STRONG LOW
PRES OFF OF NEW ENG IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WIND. THE WIND
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. TEMPS SHOULD END UP NR
NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES ACRS THE
MIDWEST AND APPROACHES FROM THE W.  CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES CLOSER.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS INTO THE 30S.  WITH LIGHT WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, IT MAY COME DOWN TO CLOUD COVER AS TO THE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES. THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS FOR ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A FEW HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL FOR THE RAINS...SO THEY MAY ARRIVE MORE TOWARDS
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THEN LINGER INTO SAT MORNING ALSO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
IN MOST AREAS.

FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATES SAT
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SAT NIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERY/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED.
WE HAVE NOT CHANGED TO POPS MUCH FROM EARLIER AND GONE WITH THE
WPC FCST FOR THE MOST PART. HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS ARE FORESEEN
FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NW WIND, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY.  GUSTS SHOULD REACH THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.  THE WIND
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURG THE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD AND
THE PGRAD RELAXES.  EXPECT THE WIND TO GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT BUT
THEN CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W.

OUTLOOK...
FRI MORNING...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN FREQUENT
  SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE BAY.  WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME IN TACT, BUT THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN WATERS.  A BACK END SCA WILL BE
NEEDED AFTER THE GLW COMES DOWN ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY SUB-SCA. SHOWERS LATE.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AFTERNOON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW END
   GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN.
SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB- SCA. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.   WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, A DEEPER MIXED LAYER, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, BUT WE STILL EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE WIND
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







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