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[Printable]
257
FXUS61 KPBZ 201459
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN
END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF
AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SEEING SUNSHINE.

RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING
LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE
KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL
PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO
12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.

BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH
ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL
POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF
IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE
THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR
EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH.

BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING
TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT
PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR
THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE
TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG
SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR
CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO
SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS.

.AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE
RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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