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[Printable]
862
FXUS61 KPBZ 261734
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS
AS LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTS UNDR EWD SHIFTING
DEFORMATION ZONE. GIVEN TRENDS AND OVRNGT EXPECTATIONS...HAVE
ADDED PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES TO THE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD
THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND
HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$







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