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[Printable]
865
FXUS61 KPBZ 260030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE NOW COMING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OHIO...AND POISED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY BRISK
OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT
COLDER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MORNING. INCREASED TURBULENT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP OVERNIGHT AND A LACK OF
LAYER RH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO BE ALL ENCOMPASSING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG WILL BE THE RULE
BY SUN RISE.

CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER/FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING BEFORE
DECOUPLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SOON WINDS WILL LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT FOR
NOW REFLECT THIS OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER...LOW LEVEL IND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN AS LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40KTS AT 1KFT AGL BY MID
EVENING. REMOVED MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z TAFS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LARGE ENOUGH MARGIN BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
PROFILES DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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