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[Printable]
269
FXUS61 KPBZ 240809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STILL
EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM`S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS.

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...THE WORK WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STAGNANT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY MAKE A LACK OF EASTWARD PROGRESS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT WITH CONTINUOUS
RAIN FOR FOUR DAYS...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY...KEEPING WINDS AROUND 5
KT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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