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762 FXUS63 KPAH 160442 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 Updated the aviation section only. && UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 Just sent out a minor update for very short term trends through the evening. The freeze forecast is on track, and the freeze warning looks good. No changes to the headline are planned this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds, clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as well, as high pressure moves across the area. High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday. Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough concern to headline at this time. Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This feature should trigger some shower activity across the area, especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the NW 1/2 of the area. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent, the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the U.S. The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast area in a quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a split flow. The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be put in place today. The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with earlier model runs and was considered with this package. There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do not anticipate any widespread severe weather. Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 Under a veil of scattered thin cirrus clouds, winds will go nearly calm and veer to the se overnight. After daybreak, as the center of high sfc pressure moves off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten a bit, especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts 15-20 kts in the afternoon, then diminishing by sunset. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...DRS AVIATION...DB