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FXUS63 KPAH 010802

302 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MCS dropping down across MO will spread its clouds into/across PAH
FA this morning. It will also lay out some boundaries, the primary
one of which lays out across our northern tier this afternoon,
where we`ll have a slgt/small chance mentionable Pop.

As the mean energy in the long wave moves across the MS and Wabash
river valleys tonight and Tuesday, it will drag this primary
boundary into the heart of the FA and result in an uptick in Pops
to likely cat or better, particularly during the day Tuesday. This
has been a consistent model signal and looks a good bet with fropa
thru much of the area by 00Z Wed.

The front/boundary hangs up across our southern tier or just to
the south Tue night, and returns as a warm sector boundary late
Tue night and Wed. This is indicated by several model members so we
adjusted Pops accordingly.

Temps look to remain summerlike at or just above climo norms from
the mid/upr 80s to near 90 for highs, and generally in the
u60s/lower 70s for lows, with continued muggy dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under the stabilizing influence
(aloft) of a broad mid level ridge late in the week, though some
models indicate that, with the substantial diurnal lower trop
instability present each day, some deep moist convection may be
strong enough to get past the warm mid level cap in some locations
during the daytime.

Meanwhile, a nrn stream longwave trof will be in the process of
lowering mid level heights across most of the CONUS. A sfc cold
front is forecast to sink sewd into the OH river valley by sometime
early Sat, with some timing differences among the med range models.
This feature will provide additional focus for lifting of abundant
moist air, thus PoPs are now 40-50 percent during the day Sat behind
the front. By Sunday, a drier air mass should be making its way into
our region, cutting off pcpn. However, the GFS and its ensemble
means suggested the center of the high (over the upper Midwest) may
be farther east than the ECMWF and its ensemble means indicated, and
therefore some warm advection showers/tstms may erupt just to our
west. We will have to wait and see how long the drying effects of
the dome of high sfc pressure actually last.

Warm and humid conditions will prevail late in the week ahead of the
front, with heat indices peaking around 100 Thu and Fri, but
especially Fri. For this forecast package, the frontal passage
should provide us end-of-the-weekend dewpoints in the 60s along with
the lows, and highs around 80.

Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Will monitor tonight for any possible developing restrictions to
vsbys pre dawn. Cigs develop as MCS moves this way, restrictions
to MVFR possible at times, but believe will generally stay VFR.
Anticipate increasing gradient/winds during the day ahead of
approaching boundary. Pops enter forecast tonight but refrain from
terminal mention at this writing.




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