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819 FXUS63 KPAH 010802 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 302 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 MCS dropping down across MO will spread its clouds into/across PAH FA this morning. It will also lay out some boundaries, the primary one of which lays out across our northern tier this afternoon, where we`ll have a slgt/small chance mentionable Pop. As the mean energy in the long wave moves across the MS and Wabash river valleys tonight and Tuesday, it will drag this primary boundary into the heart of the FA and result in an uptick in Pops to likely cat or better, particularly during the day Tuesday. This has been a consistent model signal and looks a good bet with fropa thru much of the area by 00Z Wed. The front/boundary hangs up across our southern tier or just to the south Tue night, and returns as a warm sector boundary late Tue night and Wed. This is indicated by several model members so we adjusted Pops accordingly. Temps look to remain summerlike at or just above climo norms from the mid/upr 80s to near 90 for highs, and generally in the u60s/lower 70s for lows, with continued muggy dew points. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 The PAH forecast area will be under the stabilizing influence (aloft) of a broad mid level ridge late in the week, though some models indicate that, with the substantial diurnal lower trop instability present each day, some deep moist convection may be strong enough to get past the warm mid level cap in some locations during the daytime. Meanwhile, a nrn stream longwave trof will be in the process of lowering mid level heights across most of the CONUS. A sfc cold front is forecast to sink sewd into the OH river valley by sometime early Sat, with some timing differences among the med range models. This feature will provide additional focus for lifting of abundant moist air, thus PoPs are now 40-50 percent during the day Sat behind the front. By Sunday, a drier air mass should be making its way into our region, cutting off pcpn. However, the GFS and its ensemble means suggested the center of the high (over the upper Midwest) may be farther east than the ECMWF and its ensemble means indicated, and therefore some warm advection showers/tstms may erupt just to our west. We will have to wait and see how long the drying effects of the dome of high sfc pressure actually last. Warm and humid conditions will prevail late in the week ahead of the front, with heat indices peaking around 100 Thu and Fri, but especially Fri. For this forecast package, the frontal passage should provide us end-of-the-weekend dewpoints in the 60s along with the lows, and highs around 80. && .AVIATION... Issued at 200 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 Will monitor tonight for any possible developing restrictions to vsbys pre dawn. Cigs develop as MCS moves this way, restrictions to MVFR possible at times, but believe will generally stay VFR. Anticipate increasing gradient/winds during the day ahead of approaching boundary. Pops enter forecast tonight but refrain from terminal mention at this writing. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$