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[Printable]
920
FXUS64 KOUN 201537
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THAT OUR AFTERNOON POPS/QPF ARE TOO HIGH...WHILE THE NAM12
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT...WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS...SINCE IT IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO EXTREMES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FAIRLY BRISKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...AND ARE ON TRACK WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR FORECAST
IS A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. WE WILL MONITOR...AND ADJUST IF NEEDED
LATER.

NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST...BUT IF TRENDS
DIVERGE FROM THE FORECAST...ADJUSTMENTS WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPCETED AFTER 210600.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST IS BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN TO AREAS IN AND NEAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REST OF WESTERN
AND PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND LITTLE THUNDER. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A SECOND ROUND
OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHEN OKLAHOMA CITY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A THIRD ROUND OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN GENERAL, AMOUNTS ARE NOT TO
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE EXPECTED IN
OK WITH MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. AFTER THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT WITH THE TROUGH LATER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
BE IN A WARMING TREND. AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS COULD BRING HEIGHTENED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONGRUENT WITH THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THEY DO
BRING RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  59  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
HOBART OK         74  57  80  52 /  50  50  30   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  60  81  54 /  40  50  40  10
GAGE OK           77  56  78  51 /  40  40  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  74  47 /  40  60  60   0
DURANT OK         79  61  77  57 /  30  60  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11




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