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[Printable]
646
FXUS64 KOUN 230847
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH ~15Z. ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY
THE SAME AREA. WINDS MAY GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH (WOODWARD AREA) FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS.  VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60 DEWPOINTS...SO HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH
A WIND AND HAIL RISK.

BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN
QUICKLY...SO BETTER STORM/RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

NAM12 DEVELOPS STORMS NEAR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN. RATHER WARM 8H
TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH THE CAP HOLDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...BETTER MOISTURE ETC. WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/N TEXAS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE
FIRST STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE. BETTER SHEAR PROFILES AT THIS TIME
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND CHANCE OF TORNADOES. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS BECOME
SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO PERHAPS A COMPLEX OR TWO WITH WIND
AND HAIL THE MAIN RISK. MOST MODELS PUSH THE DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST
OF I-35 BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REMOVE MUCH OF THE
SEVERE RISK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT
FINE FUELS/RAINFALL.

MID/UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  62  78  53 /  10  40  10   0
HOBART OK         85  59  80  52 /  20  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  63  83  56 /  10  40  10   0
GAGE OK           85  51  77  49 /  40  50   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     84  61  75  52 /   0  40  20   0
DURANT OK         83  62  79  56 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




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