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646
FXUS61 KOKX 200243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
00Z SOUNDING HAS STRONG INVERSION WITH BASE AROUND 880 MB AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH. LOTS OF STRATO CU AROUND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN...AND EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS INVERSION REMAINS. STILL LEANING TOWARD THE
NAM FOR MOISTURE PROFILES.

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM).

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS AROUND 15 KT WITH MINIMAL GUSTS A FEW KTS
HIGHER. THE WIND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW










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