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146
FXUS61 KOKX 291452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS RIDGE OVER THE
REGION SLIDES OFF SHORE...AND CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS RISE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STILL BE ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES. THINKING THAT LATEST
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM...SO CUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH A SNOWPACK ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE - THOUGH EXPECT A WET
SNOW FOR THE COAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. 1 INCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 2 FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

THE CLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME WINDY
BY LATE AFTERNOON...DROPPING WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WESTERN ZONES AND TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS IT
TRAVERSES JUST TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW AS CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
HUDSON BAY...WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. MEAN TROUGH REMAINS
FROM THE CENTRAL STATES EASTWARD. RIDGE OUT WEST FLATTENS SOMEWHAT
IN TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID
WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN...VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH MOVES
WELL TO THE SOUTH...WITH A WEAK FRONT BETWEEN ANOTHER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
FANFARE.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY SUNDAY. ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS WOULD PUT THE
LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOMETIME MONDAY...WITH GGEM MUCH
SLOWER.

SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN CONTINUE TO WAFFLE AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
VARIOUS SOURCES OF ENERGY IN THE SHORT TERM DO NOT REACH WESTERN
CANADA UNTIL FRIDAY...SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY
FOR POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO CONVERGE HOPEFULLY. WILL THUS NOT STRAY FAR
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WILL INTRODUCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

COLD AIR WILL PREVAIL. DANGEROUSLY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT COURTESY
OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG NW WINDS. IN FACT...WINDS
MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND THESE
WINDS ALONG WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS WILL YIELD BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL
READINGS. NW ZONES LIKELY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
-15.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS ARRIVES BEHIND THE MONDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. LEANED TOWARD WPC NUMBERS...WITH SOME WEIGHT TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

VFR TODAY. MVFR LIKELY DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z JUST AHEAD OF LIGHT
SNOW. THEN IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FROM AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE BECOME SE AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE S THIS
EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF WINDS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE AND
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOWER.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN -SN. SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF ABOUT AN INCH LIKELY...PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES AT KHPN/KSWF.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR IN -SN. NW WINDS G20-25 KT LIKELY.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G30-35KT LIKELY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY..IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST. WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON THE OCEAN WATER TONIGHT STARTING AT 6Z.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY. EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO START TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
WEST...STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IN FACT...SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE. OVERALL THOUGH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KT ARE EXPECTED.

VERY COLD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISH SLOWLY LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THIS LOW.

ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH
THE DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS BUILD AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...OF AT LEAST 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE STORM MAY PASS
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH FOR LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW








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