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034
FXUS64 KOHX 021130
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS...UP TO 10KT. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MEET UP WITH
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW...GOING
WITH VCTS IN TAFS. MORE SPECIFIC TEMPO GROUPS CAN BE ADDED WITH
THE 18Z UPDATES. OUTSIDE THE TSRA...VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH
CSV DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 10Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTMS CHANCES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STRONG TSTMS THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS TONIGHT...WX PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHWR/TSTM COMPLEX CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO MID STATE`S WX AS PRESS TIME APPROACHES... INCLUDING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD PROVIDE FOR A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS
SHOWING THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY N OF MID STATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN
AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ASSOCIATED
WITH ABOVE MENTIONED POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CAN NOT ALSO TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
APPROACHING THE TN/KY BORDER REGION THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS ALSO. EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME SCT/NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MID STATE AS PASSING SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
WOULD NOT BE ALSO SURPRISED FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST STRONG
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO WITH GUSTY WIND...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN ALSO
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MOCLDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S N TO LOWER 90S S...MID 80S PLATEAU...A
CONTINUANCE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TREND WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. REALLY CAN NOT ARGUE AGAINST CONSENSUS NAM/GFS MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY...AND WILL THUS
LEAN ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SFC FRONT TO OUR N WILL SAG SWD AND INTO AT LEAST
SRN PORTIONS OF MID STATE...IF NOT TOTALLY PUSHING THRU MID STATE...BY
EARLY WED MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMINENT AT LEAST ACROSS
OR JUST N OF THE MID STATE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES BEING POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PTCDLY CLDY SKIES BY THE MORNING HRS TOO...WITH
LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT ALONG WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE MID STATE THRU FRI NIGHT WITH
MAINLY LATE MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL LEAN A LITTLE
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM/EURO MOS VALUES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 90S...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S...UPPER 60S PLATEAU.

ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU THE MID STATE
SOMETIME ON SAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE RESULTING IN SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS HERE...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...IN WHICH ALL
SHOW THAT INFLUENCES FROM A MIDWEST SFC 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER RESULTING IN A TREND BACK TOWARD
TEMPS BEING MORE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES INCLUDING A DECREASED
OVERALL CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TOO...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

31

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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