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[Printable]
765
FXUS64 KOHX 221010
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
410 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF STRATUS AND WARMER MOIST AIR HAS BEEN
ADVANCING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW PWATS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MAX OUT NEAR 1.2 INCHES OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...THEREFORE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY CHANCE
OF THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND OUR DEPARTING FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS PACIFIC IN NATURE, AND THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. AFTER A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY, OUR
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, SWINGS ANOTHER FRONT IN OUR
DIRECTION FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN BY
SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH STEADILY
EASTWARD AND BRING SOME DRIER WEATHER BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY. THE
LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT SQUIRRELY, AS IT DEEPENS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE A BIT AND SLOWS IT DOWN AS IF IT`S TRYING TO
CUT IT OFF. HOWEVER, THE PROBLEM IS, IT KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE THE
ENTIRE TIME. THEREFORE, WILL VEER AWAY FROM LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION,
KEEP A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AND LIMIT THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY DURING THE
LATEST PERIODS, AS THE TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  50  59  48 /  30  70  80  80
CLARKSVILLE    56  50  57  43 /  50  80  70  80
CROSSVILLE     53  46  55  52 /  10  40  80  90
COLUMBIA       57  50  59  46 /  40  70  80  80
LAWRENCEBURG   57  51  59  46 /  50  70  90  80
WAVERLY        56  50  57  42 /  50  80  70  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11/19






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