weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
936
FXUS64 KOHX 181722
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ON OFF TO THE ENE AND TAKE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE HOWEVER...A NEARLY CLOSED BUT
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00Z AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
SHOWER. CHANCES HOWEVER ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN SUPPORT A VCNTY
MENTION. OTW...LOOK FOR CLEARING TO COMMENCE AFT 00Z. LITTLE IF
ANY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF BOTH AL AND GA. JUST A
FEW LIGHT ECHOS INDICATED IN MIDDLE TN ALONG THE TN RIVER. THE SFC
LOW WILL TRACK ENE TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE. STILL THOUGH...CLOUDINESS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING HERE
AND THERE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIRTUALLY CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA. THE AXIS BY AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND NE ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
SO,,,I WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.
OTW...TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL REISSUE UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LOW COMING FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLD
SHRA THIS TAF PERIOD. THE PROB FOR SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS...AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD ACROSS THE
MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S. SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHWARD, UP
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED A FINGER OF LOWER
CLOUDS, BTWN 5K AND 7K FEET DEVELOPING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER.

EXPECT MOST OF THE MID STATE TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO RAIN AREAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW, AND MAY NIP OUR MOST EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA,
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN
TN. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT BROAD-BRUSHED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ALL OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND COMING UP, AS OUR GULF LOW
MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
PULLS MOST OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF OUR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. EASTER SUNDAY LOOK REALLY NICE, WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
MID STATE.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE