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[Printable]
584
FXUS63 KOAX 291115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
18-20Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 22 TO 32 KNOTS EARLY...WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 20-23Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
00-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-030>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




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