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[Printable]
173
FXUS66 KMTR 270557
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
957 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE BAY AREA TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PST MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO THE LA AND SAN
DIEGO AREAS TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA
CLARA VALLEY. THESE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING ANY
RAIN WHILE THE GREATER SFO BAY AREA HAVE ONLY A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES
INTO NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME THE MOISTURE WILL BE
EAST OF THE DISTRICT.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THAT LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
NONDESCRIPT WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA BY THURSDAY BUT NO PRECIP FOR THE BAY
AREA. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK.

ANOTHER WARM WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS A RIDGE BUILDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS. DOESN`T
LOOK AS WARM AS LAST WEEKEND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORDS.

THE PATTERN BEYOND SUNDAY BECOMES MORE MUDDLED. THE ECMWF AND GEM
MODEL ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER WHILE THE GFS REMAINS
DRY. GIVEN THE HISTORIC DRY PATTERN WERE UNDER WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCING DAY 7 POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM SPINS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:55 PM PST MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BY
MIDWEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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