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989
FXUS65 KMSO 170940
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...Today the upper level high pressure ridge will
gradually shift east resulting in an unseasonably hot and breezy
afternoon. Today should be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures peaking around 10 degrees above normal. Showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible over Lemhi County and perhaps as
far north as the Anaconda/Butte areas late this afternoon into
this evening.

A more focused push of moisture and energy has consistently been
forecast in the models to move from California towards Idaho and
Montana starting overnight tonight. This disturbance will initiate
widespread showers early Thursday morning with the best chances
for precipitation likely south of a line from Grangeville to
Missoula to Seeley Lake. But the heaviest or more persistent
precipitation will be over Lemhi County and the Butte/Blackfoot
Region. Elsewhere showers and thunderstorms will become
increasingly possible as instability grows due to an approaching
upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Cooler
conditions will be on hand Friday with showers tapering off Friday
night as drier air moves into the region to start the weekend.

The weekend through early next week will see above average
temperatures with a warming trend. Next Wednesday or Thursday is
really the next chance for any precipitation. However, models are
having a hard time handling the long term effects of all the
current tropical activity, which is causing a lot of variability
in the forecasts starting mid next week. Started to raise the
chances of precipitation next Wednesday and Thursday because
models are uncertain of a wet or dry pattern, and the current
tropical activity favors an active weather pattern across the
northern hemisphere next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible in the vicinity of KSMN and KBTM late this
afternoon into this evening. Conditions will become increasingly
more favorable for for precipitation and lowering cloud heights at
these same locations by Thursday morning. Elsewhere few, if any
impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





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