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871
FXUS65 KMSO 251045
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
444 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

Clouds will once again increase over the Northern Rockies today,
ahead of a vigorous Pacific storm system. Patchy valley fog this
morning will likely burn off shortly after sunrise, giving way to
a very warm late October day. Winds will become quite gusty this
afternoon, particularly for high terrain and the Camas Prairie of
Idaho, where gusts may exceed 50 mph at times. Elsewhere,
southerly breezes will help to push temperatures into the 60s.

A surface cold front will sweep across the Northern Rockies very
late this evening through midday Sunday. An unstable environment
ahead of the front will allow nocturnal thunderstorms to develop,
mainly over central Idaho and along the Montana/Idaho border from
Lookout Pass southward. The frontal passage is likely to be
accompanied by erratic wind gusts and some brief heavy
precipitation. Snow levels will decrease quickly following the
front, allow a short burst of snowfall over area mountain passes.
There is a possibility of some snow sticking to the road surface
over the passes, creating periods of hazardous driving conditions.

Following a short respite from precipitation from around midday
Monday through Monday evening, yet another storm system is
anticipated to arrive over the Northern Rockies. Another round of
wind and precipitation similar to the weekend system is likely to
be replayed. Prepare for gusty winds and snow down to mountain
passes at the very least.

Long-term weather models basically agree Thursday through Saturday,
depicting active weather along the Pacific Northwest coast and
high pressure over the Dakotas. Southwest flow aloft over the
Northern Rockies during this time will likely promote very warm
late October temperatures. All models eventually depict another
vigorous storm system traversing the Northern Rockies over the
latter half of next weekend, however the timing of the next storm
system feature is fairly unclear. Climatology is reflected in the
present probability of precipitation forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of patchy fog and low stratus clouds will be
possible at all area terminals this morning but primarily at KMSO
and KSMN. Any fog that develops should clear by mid morning.
Breezy winds are expected in the afternoon with the strongest wind
gusts at KBTM. The next weather system will start approaching the
area tonight with lower ceilings and mountain obscurations
expected on Sunday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

Zumpfe
Aviation...Kino

$$





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