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206 FXUS65 KMSO 232155 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014 ...Light snow accumulations through much of north central Idaho and western Montana through Monday morning... ...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .DISCUSSION... Snow is beginning to expand throughout northern Idaho and northwest Montana this afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches the region. There is a high chance for most people to have light snow accumulations by Monday morning as the trough continues to trek through north central Idaho and western Montana. Widespread slick roadways are possible overnight so winter weather advisories are in effect. POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW: A brief break in snow is possible Monday afternoon before the next, potentially heavy snow producing, weather system arrives. The next weather system is going to have a lot of moisture and there is moderate to high confidence of the storm to develop but snow levels are in question with much lower confidence. This weather system will be warm front dominated so snow levels will rise. The questions are, how quickly this transition will occur, and will valley locations be able to see snow accumulations before the rise? As of now there is fair agreement that precipitation will start as snow Monday night and transition to rain at lower elevations through Tuesday. High snow levels, above many mountain passes, are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. The valleys of northwest Montana are of particular focus since snow levels will be slower to rise leaving a higher chance for snow accumulations. At this time only moderate snow accumulations are being forecast in the northwest Montana valleys, but heavy snow is forecast for high elevations. Travel impacts are becoming likely due to snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation may linger in northwest Montana into Thursday but timing issues leave this uncertain. There are indications that the moist flow will return for the weekend as colder air moves in from the east. Snow will again be possible through the weekend but confidence is low due to high changeability in the extended model guidance. && .AVIATION...Widespread snow will develop this evening with localized snow bands forecast for the overnight. Low ceilings and reduced visibilities can be expected throughout north central Idaho and western Montana including all TAF sites through much of tonight. Widespread light accumulations are expected through Monday morning. Snow coverage will decrease early Monday morning with lowest chances anticipated through the afternoon. Ceilings improvements are also expected by Monday afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday Butte/Blackfoot Region. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Lower Clark Fork Region. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Wednesday morning West Glacier Region. WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday evening Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Southern Clearwater Mountains. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Northern Clearwater Mountains. && $$