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[Printable]
273
FXUS64 KMRX 252010
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. JET DYNAMICS OVER OUR AREA LOOK
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO HELP PULL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY RAIN...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS SW VA...FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WILL
MAKE MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS
DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...NAM WANTS TO
TRACK THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA BRINING IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN/SNOWFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE CWA. AT
THIS POINT AM LIKING TO SHY AWAY FROM THE NAM SOLUTION AS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN MUCH LOWER FOR THIS EVENT. NO MATTER WHICH
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE MOS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD INHIBIT SNOW GROWTH
IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS DAYTIME HIGHS RISE
INTO THE 30`S AND 40`S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAYBE GET INTO THE
UPPER 20`S. THE COLDEST TEMPS WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN WE GET CLEARING SKIES AND BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING. AT THIS
POINT THINK ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN TEMPS/ACCUMULATIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS STARTING
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IF SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER A LOCATION
TEMPS MIGHT COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER IF NO
SNOW FALLS GROUND TEMPS MIGHT STAY WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SNOW MIGHT ONLY STICK ON THE
GRASS AND LITTLE WILL ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. IF THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPIATION TYPE IS RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH OF IT EVAPORATES BEFORE TEMPS GET BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN, COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES OF WATER FREEZING ON THE
ROADS IF IT`S NOT EVAPORATED BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FIRST ROUND OF SNOW VERY CAREFULLY TO SEE WHAT THE IMPACTS
MIGHT BE ON THE SECOND ROUND. POTENTIALLY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO BLACK FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOT DO ANYTHING AT THIS
TIME AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. I HAVE TRENDED UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEMPS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT
WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE FURTHER NORTH AND IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS WHERE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS MORE LIKELY.

THE AREA CONTINUES TO WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO WHERE WE SHOULD
BE FLIRTING WITH 60`S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL SUGGESTING A FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH
WHAT TO DO WITH IT ONCE IT GETS HERE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS
THE TIME FRAME GETS CLOSER BUT AT THIS MOMENT MOST OF THE MODELS
THINK THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP SOMEWHERE AROUND KENTUCKY LEADING TO
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             39  51  37  49 /  60  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  47  34  46 /  80  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  49  35  46 /  70  30  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  45  32  42 / 100  80  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/ABM




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