weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  
[Printable]
396
FXUS64 KMRX 261910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
LAST FOR MOST THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SW VA LATE WHERE AN MCS COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AND CLIP THAT AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND SEVERAL FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKE ONE QUESTION THE LOW MOS PROBABILITIES FOR
THOSE 2 PERIODS. THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE TO
ME...BUT EVEN THE GFS MOS POPS WERE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT FOR THIS
EVENT. I OPTED TO KEEP SOME SWATHS OF LIKELY POPS GOING...ALTHO THE
INITIAL LATE NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...LEAVING A FEW
HOURS FOR STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AT LEAST BY NOON OVER THE
NRN PLATEAU AND SW VA. DON`T SEE WHY THIS NEW CONVECTION WOULDN`T
THEN SWEEP ESE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. ACTUAL TIMING AND COVERAGE MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH GFS MODEL SOLUTION...AS WELL AS TO MESH WITH NEIGHBORING NWS
GRIDS. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS MINS FOR BOTH NIGHTS...BUT THE
HOT MAX TEMPS FROM GFS MOS FOR SUNDAY LOOKED SUSPECT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS FAVORABLE...AS ADVERTISED EARLIER.
MIGHT SEE MORE HAIL THAN USUAL GIVEN THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS. SHEAR AND HELICITY INCREASE AS
WELL...SO CAN`T RULE ISOLATED TO A FEW TORNADOES. WEBINAR TODAY
WITH GRAPHICS POSTED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SEVERE THREAT...AND ALSO
CONTINUED A MENTION OF SEVERE THREATS IN THE ZFP PRODUCT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
ACTUALLY LOOKS MORE LIKE A WINTER TYPE PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WITH NEVER ENDING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION. THE PERIOD
STARTS OUT ON MONDAY WITH THE EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SHOWER TO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH TWO TO THREE WEAK SHORT WAVELENGTH
FEATURES BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM GOING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HAD TO KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HOLDS ITS POSITION ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
AS A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES BUILD THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. IT WILL
BE SO COOL THAT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL RATHER THAN THE
PEAK OF SUMMER WARMTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  93  72  84 /   0  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  90  70  81 /  20  50  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  90  69  81 /  20  50  60  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  89  66  78 /  30  60  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE