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[Printable]
357
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC




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