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319
FXUS64 KMRX 221606
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED. SON

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL WEATHER IN GENERAL AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DON`T
INCREASE UNTIL TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE WAS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TOO COOL ON FRIDAY`S MAX TEMPS...BUT THE WARMER GFS MOS
MAXES DO LOOK REASONABLE FOR TODAY. I CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR
NAM/GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH STRONG
SE FLOW. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING
AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. STEADY RAIN TO END
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SW AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY FAIRLY LOW WITH WARM FRONT BUT ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY. BEHIND COLD FRONT MONDAY TEMPERATURES
DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FAST
MOVING UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
AND SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT AGAIN MAINLY
NORTHERN TN AND SW VA. FRIDAY COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO CLEAR SKIES AS
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  42  60  52 /  10  60  90  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  40  59  50 /  10  30  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  39  58  51 /  10  40  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  34  57  45 /  10  10  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
     JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG/TD




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