weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
411
FXUS63 KMQT 232004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...TIMING THE
ONSET OF PCPN LATER TODAY AND THEN THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WEST.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OFF THE TX GULF COAST WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC 150+ KNOT
250 MB JET MOVING OFF THE PAC NW INTO NRN NEVADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO WRN ND. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW PREVAILED FROM
THE GULF TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN GREAT LAKES REGION BTWN
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND A 993 MB LOW OVER ND. WAA AND
LOW CLOUD COVER HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE
MOSTLY SNOWPACKED GROUND HAS ALSO RESULTED IN DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECT PCPN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT CONTINUES AND 850-700 MB FGEN
INCREASES. EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND BEST MOISTURE. AS
THE MID-LVL DRY LAYER MOISTENS UP ANY DRIZZLE SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK HAS
RESULTED IN DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 16Z FOR ALL BUT THE FAR FOUR WESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER Q-VECT
CONVERGENCE...DEVELOPMENT OF COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND
ENHANCED 850-700 MB FGEN WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA BY EVENING. MODEL AVERAGED QPF RANGES FROM .25 WEST
TO .75 SOUTHEAST. MODEL SNDGS AND CRITICAL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FAR WEST AROUND 09Z
BUT WITH SNOW/WATER RATIOS RISING TO ONLY AROUND 6-7/1 BY 12Z MON
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THE FAR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN OVER
THE SNOWPACK SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AT 00Z TUE...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE E OF THE CWA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
FAR WRN CWA...WITH A RIDGE NW OF THE TROUGH. THE 12Z/23 NAM HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 12Z/23 GFS AND 00Z/23 ECMWF IN SHOWING
LESS PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...AND THEREFORE HAVING MOST
/BUT NOT ALL/ OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW NE OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUE. PRECIP
WILL BE ALL SNOW BY 00Z TUE AS 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AOB -12C BY
12Z. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR IN NNW WIND
SNOWBELTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA BY 18Z TUE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ANTICYCLONIC...AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DRIER...AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN.
WILL CERTAINLY SEE DIMINISHING PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATER TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT LES WILL NOT COMPLETELY END AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
FOCUS LES MORE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WNW WIND SNOWBELTS OF
THE NRN HURON MOUNTAINS AND OVER ALGER COUNTY WILL BE FAVORED FOR
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF 6-8 INCHES OF
SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THESE FAVORED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH LESS
AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES INLAND. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM
SHIFT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. AT LEAST FOR MON NIGHT/TUE...SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINE
INSTEAD OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ALSO...BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
WED INTO THU...MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL CENTRAL U.S. WED...BUT DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH/TRACK/PHASING OF THE TWO WAVES...WHICH LEADS TO A WIDE
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CWA. THE ECMWF PHASES THE WAVES OVER
THE REGION...WHICH LEADS TO A 1003MB SFC LOW MOVING FROM NEAR MPX AT
12Z WED TO LAKE HURON AT 12Z THU. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA WED INTO THU. THE GFS
KEEP THE WAVES OUT OF PHASE AND THE SRN MOST WAVE MUCH FARTHER
S...LEAVING JUST A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
NRN SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. OTHER MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. NOT REALLY ABLE TO PICK BETWEEN THE
MODELS GIVEN THE NORMAL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
GENERALLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION...SHOULD SEE LES THU INTO THU NIGHT IN NW
WIND SNOWBELTS UNDER -18C TO -20C 850MB TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
THEN BRINGS WINDS OUT OF THE SW THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM IT SHOWS MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CWA FRI NIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG SFC HIGH
MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP LES GOING IN NW-WNW SNOWBELTS THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD OBVIOUSLY NOT GIVEN THE CHANGE IN WINDS WITH THE SFC
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND
0C...BUT DOES BRING LES BACK ON SAT BEHIND THE CLIPPER. MODELS DO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING FROM THE WSW BY SUN
WITH CONTINUED /BUT LIGHTER/ LES. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD...PERSISTENT LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
VLIFR CONDITIONS BELOW LANDING MINS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AT KSAW WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
DENSE FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE WHEN RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN THE FOG MAY DIMINISH
IS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE...IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL ALSO PERSIST AT IWD AND
CMX BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW WITH A MORE DOWNSLOPE SRLY WIND
COMPONENT. AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH
ANY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. A DEEPENING LOW WILL
MOVE TO EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALES 40-45 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR POURS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ006-007-085.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-085.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY TO 7
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ001-003-005>007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MIZ004-005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ246>250-265-266.

  GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ242>245-
     263-264.

  GALE WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TO 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE