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[Printable]
846
FXUS63 KMQT 260716
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW THIS MORNING WILL HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATE TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. NAM SHOWS SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K SURFACES LATE TONIGHT
OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINING OVER
THE EAST.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DRY AIR OVER
THE EAST IS A CONCERN AND HELD OFF ON POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA
TONIGHT AND WENT DRY. KEPT IN CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST HALF TONIGHT
WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT IN
THUNDER POSSIBILITY FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE APPROACHES...ARRIVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTN HRS. PRES GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET RAMPING UP OVER NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LLWS MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FCSTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07







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