weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  
[Printable]
020
FXUS64 KMOB 282101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOP WELL INLAND AHEAD OF
A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND CURRENT STORM
MOTION (15-20 MPH) INDICATES THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
COAST BY 9PM...PERHAPS EARLIER IF A STRONG OUTFLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH MLCAPES OF
3000-4000 J/KG...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
REMAINS POSSIBLE. THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR WILL
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
WHILE HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A
FACTOR. 34/JFB

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THE MOBILE AND PENSACOLA
AREAS WED MORNING...INCLUDING MANY OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE FOR WED IS 67 AND 66 FOR
THU...AND 67 FOR BOTH WED AND THU FOR PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS FOR THESE AREAS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THESE VALUES OR A DEGREE OR 2
LOWER. OTHERWISE...A DEEP PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRI
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK
COMBINED WITH INCREASED FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DUE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVELS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF FRI THROUGH MON...POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF SOME OF THE
IMPULSES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRI CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY FRI CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND ECMWF EXTENDED TEMPS AND TWEAK FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS THROUGH FRI AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN STRONG...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF MVFR/IFR. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N-NW AT 5-10 KT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE FRONT DISSIPATES SOUTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SEAS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS DIMINISHING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY UNSEASONAL LIKE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING HOURS LATER TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWERING TO THE MID 20 PERCENTILE RANGE
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND THE LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENTILE RANGE
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS INCLUDING MOST AREAS NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
20 FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...
DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG FOR SOME INLAND ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  66  91  67 /  50  05  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   74  92  71  90  70 /  60  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  92  74  88  73 /  60  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   67  90  60  89  63 /  20  00  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  66  89  61  90  64 /  10  05  05  10  10
CAMDEN      66  89  60  89  63 /  10  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   68  92  62  92  64 /  60  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$









U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE