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538
FXUS64 KMOB 221036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LATER SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN RAIN
CHANCE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LEADING TO
THE FORMATION OF ADVECTION FOG OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING
THEN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF FOG/LOW STATUS
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT LEADING ME
TO KEEP THE COVERAGE AS PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL FORCING ON TUE BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT MOST LIKE LEADING TO COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTS. THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST
DOWNWARD FOR HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
LEADING ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOS VALUES FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
ADDING A DEGREE OR 2 TO THE VALUES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUES MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE
PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN ACCELERATES
WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER IOWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF ON TUESDAY...THEN
STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND THE 850 MB JET
INCREASES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO 40-50 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE COAST IN A REGION OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENT.  THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HINT STRONGLY AT
THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO FORM AND THEN LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
THE BEST SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2...AND SURFACE
BASED CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  WHILE INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP WHICH LEAVES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER
60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SMALL POPS
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WARM TO THE MID 60S ON FRIDAY
THEN TREND COOLER TO HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST WARM TO MID
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TREND
COOLER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY THEN BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BUILD
TO NEAR 10 FEET WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT
22.14Z FOLLOWED BY IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 23.00Z THEN LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 23.12Z. LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  62  72  58  61 /  50  60  80  80  20
PENSACOLA   66  61  72  62  65 /  60  60  90  90  40
DESTIN      65  60  71  65  65 /  60  60  90 100  50
EVERGREEN   67  59  72  60  62 /  50  50  90  90  40
WAYNESBORO  67  59  70  54  55 /  40  40  90  90  20
CAMDEN      66  59  71  58  58 /  40  40  90  80  40
CRESTVIEW   68  61  73  63  65 /  60  60  90 100  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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