weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  
[Printable]
052
FXUS64 KMOB 021705 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS NOW SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BREAKING OUT OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF KMOB. WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM
THE NW PROGGED TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OVER LA AND NW MS THIS
AFTERNOON WE WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER LIFT OR FORCING RESULTING IN
BETTER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AND WEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3200 J/KG OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THESE
AREAS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DRY ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER MOST
PARTS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO PARTS OF INLAND SW AL GENERALLY WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH...MOSTLY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...[02.18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.18Z. ALSO COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE MS/AL COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...INCREASED WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. ALSO MENTIONED THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING THE MS/AL
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CDT TUE SEPT 2 2014/

UPDATE...LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A LONG PERIOD SWELL (3 FT/8
SEC) CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING TIDAL RANGE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BUILD
INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES...OR ABOUT 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WHICH LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG EACH DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING
LEADING TO COLLAPSING CORES AND POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WELL INLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COMBINATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GULF WEAK UPPER TROF
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STATES
UPPER TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO BRINGS A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
RIDGING GRADUALLY RECOVERS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PERSISTING NEAR 2.0 INCHES.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
COVERAGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FURTHER BY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS UNTIL WINDS
TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEEK. SEAS SUBSIDE SLOWLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  74  93  74  92 /  60  30  50  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  77  93  76  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
DESTIN      90  78  92  77  90 /  30  30  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   95  72  95  71  94 /  50  40  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  94  72  94  71  93 /  60  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      95  71  95  71  94 /  60  30  50  20  40
CRESTVIEW   94  72  94  71  94 /  40  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE