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892
FXUS64 KMOB 161215 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
715 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE
FREEZE WARNING. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN SFC WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST RESULTING IN WINDS THAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOW 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE PLAINS
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COASTAL STATES AND EXTENDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN
IN 295-305K LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING THEN INCREASES ESPECIALLY NEAR 295K BY MIDDAY NEAR THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PORTION.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF RESULT IN MODEST TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUE THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SATURDAY...THE ECMWF...NAM AND GEM FORM AN UPPER LOW AS THE TROF
AXIS PASSES THE FORECAST AREA.  THE GFS HAS A REINFORCING SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THOUGH DOES DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM DEVELOP A DEEPER
SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THOUGH PLACEMENT VARIES
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF PER THE ECMWF AND NAM TO EAST OF THE AREA
PER THE GEM.  WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THIS GENERAL SOLUTION.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR THE EASTERN PORTION FRIDAY NIGHT.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR MONDAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
RETURNS MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES INTO
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
BRINGS A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE PERIOD TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THAT DECREASES THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. /13

FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY BUT WILL NOT
SATISFY DURATION OR OTHER REQUIREMENTS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  47  71  56  72 /  00  05  20  50  40
PENSACOLA   65  50  71  58  71 /  00  05  20  50  50
DESTIN      64  51  70  59  69 /  00  05  20  50  50
EVERGREEN   68  42  71  53  71 /  00  05  10  30  40
WAYNESBORO  67  39  71  54  73 /  00  05  10  20  20
CAMDEN      67  41  71  53  71 /  00  05  05  20  40
CRESTVIEW   67  39  72  55  72 /  00  05  20  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










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