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430
FXUS64 KMOB 252004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TX...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EAST...TO OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER
HIGH FLATTENS INTO A RIDGE STRETCHING W-E OVER MEX/GULF OF
MEX/CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY SHIFTS EAST...TO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. THE FA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE ENDING THE
DAY UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.

FOR THE FORECAST...TONIGHT AM EXPECTING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. FEEL
GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR
TONIGHT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY...FEEL TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED. THE GFS IS A BIT
WARMER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. WITH TODAYS TEMPS
RUNNING BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS...AM CONTINUING THE
TREND FOR SUNDAY`S HIGHS. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE REGION SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOWS FOR A LIGHT
RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE. WITH AN OPEN RADIATION CHANNEL...SOMEWHAT
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND CALM WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES MEANWHILE ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE NEAR 0.75 INCHES OR ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES MODESTLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.0-1.3 INCHES.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN HAVE STAYED
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THEN TREND TO MILDER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO
LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 7-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE LOWER 80S. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A
MASSIVE DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN
INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.  WHILE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TREND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. /29

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING THE
CURRENT OFFSHORE FLOW TO AN ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT
TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A
FRONT CROSSING AREA COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON(ACCORDING TO
THE ECMWF) OR STALLING ALONG THE COAST(PER GFS). CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE GFS SOLUTION...AND WITH THE
INCONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE IN HANDLING THIS FRONT THE LAST FEW
DAYS...AM LEAVING THE CURRENT TUESDAY NIGHT ON SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AS IS. RESULT IS THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST AND AN
INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA MID WEEK ON. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  83  58  83  60 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   57  82  61  83  64 /  00  00  00  05  10
DESTIN      64  79  63  80  65 /  00  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   48  84  51  85  55 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  49  85  53  85  58 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      48  84  52  85  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   46  84  50  84  54 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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