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869
FXUS64 KMOB 210131
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
831 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...RAPIDLY STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING QUIET
MUCH MORE RAPIDLY. RADAR IS DEVOID OF ECHOES SO WE ARE GOING TO
LOWER THE POP BELOW ISOLATED COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 712 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SUNLIGHT WILL ALLOW ALREADY
RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE TO RETURN TO EQUILIBRIUM ALLOWING THINGS
TO QUIET DOWN MUCH MORE RAPIDLY AND EARLIER ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES.

AVIATION UPDATE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINIMAL RISK OF PATCHY
FOG. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

.ELEVATED TO HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.FORECAST HEAT INDICES MAY LEAD TO OCCURRENCES OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE
BAHAMAS...EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF AND POKING NORTHWEST ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. THERE ARE SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES
NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG
RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PRESENT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH FOR STRONGEST STORMS
TODAY TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD IN STORMS. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MAIN HAZARD IN
THESE BEING POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

FORECASTERS CALL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CARRYING OVER INTO THE
EVENING...NORTH OF THE COAST...BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF SHOWS MORE AMPLIFICATION ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
RANGING FROM 94 TO 98 NORTH OF THE BEACH AREAS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM 102 TO 107. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. /10

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES.  A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES STILL LOOK SET TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA WHICH REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SURFACE RIDGE
OTHERWISE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR A SEASONABLE NORMAL 1.7 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT TRENDING TO 1.8
INCHES BY SATURDAY.  WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
MID 90S NEAR THE COAST.  THIS RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103 TO
107 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND
108...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  AS HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO SOMEWHAT STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE...MAY EVEN SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
110 OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
CONDITIONS WILL WHICH PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING STORMS...JUST
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EACH EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEAKENS SOMEWHAT WHILE SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST BY WEDNESDAY.  A WEAK
SURFACE TROF PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOOKS TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND REMAINS OVER THE
INTERIOR GULF COAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING
2.25-2.35 INCHES...OR UP TO 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THEN MAY
DECREASE TO 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST
REMAINS ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY ARE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 90S INLAND
RANGING TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST...THEN HIGHS MODERATE GRADUALLY TO
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY.  HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF AT LEAST 102 TO 107 WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND
108 AND SIMILAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WELL...AFTER WHICH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES OCCUR AS THE DAYTIME HIGHS
TREND TOWARDS SEASONABLE VALUES. /29


AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS STORMS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...CLOSER TO A SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.
AFTERNOON TSRA MOVES GENERALLY EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CU BASES 2500 TO 3500 FT. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMES VARIABLE AFTER
21.03Z. /10

MARINE...A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE GULF...RESULTING IN A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN SEAS...1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  75  97  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  94  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
DESTIN      77  92  79  95  80 /  10  20  10  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  97  72  99  73 /  20  20  05  20  10
WAYNESBORO  72  97  73  98  71 /  20  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      72  98  72  99  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   71  97  72  99  73 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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