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089
FXUS62 KMLB 250305
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT SAVE FOR A FEW THIN WISPS OF JET CI ZIPPING
OVHD. TEMPS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET...ALTHOUGH TD`S ARE BIT ABOVE THE
CURRENT GRIDDED PROGS. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE
SUBSIDED TO ABOUT 8-10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS
THEY`VE VEERED MORE TO WNW.

CLEAR/CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ACROSS MOST AREAS IN THE U30S-L40S.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO WHERE THE GAP BETWEEN TEMPS AND WCI`S WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BY SUNRISE. OTHER THAN MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDS...GRID CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY TRANSPARENT IN THE
PUBLIC PRODUCTS.

&&

..AVIATION...VFR/SKC.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO THE POINT WHERE 20KT/7FT ARE
CONFINED TO THE OUTER RIM (NO CLOSER THAN 40-50NM FROM SHORE)
OF THE OFFSHORE LEGS. CONDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW THRESHOLDS NOT TOO
LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED SCA
AS IT ONLY GOES OUT TIL 09Z.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...ULRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SUN...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERTOP CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BRING A NICE BUT COOLER THAN USUAL DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
AVERAGING 5 TO 10 MPH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST FORT PIERCE SOUTH WHERE UPPER 60S SHOULD
OCCUR.

MON-MON NIGHT...A QUICK REINFORCING SHOT TRANSITIONS THRU EARLY
MON MORN ON THE WINGS OF A PLUNGING UPPER TROUGH. RETURN OF AT
LEAST SLIGHT POPS AS MOISTURE MEAGER AND OVERALL SOMEWHAT ON THE
DIER SIDE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH WHILE BASE OF
TROUGH SWINGS BY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. A POSTURING OF
APPRECIABLE NW UPPER FLOW AND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL SET-UP
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FL AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
LEAVING BRISK W/WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON BACKSIDE. THIS WILL LIKELY
PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND-RELATED ADVISORY ISSUANCES (LAKE WIND
ADVISORY OR WIND ADVISORY) WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS. DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE L/M 60S
NORTH OF I-4 AND M/U 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE LOWER
70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. COLDER AIR AGAIN POURS DOWN THE
PENINSULA MON OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES TO
L40S...EXCEPT M/U 40S IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. WINDS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED MON OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO
THE M/U 30S.

TUE-FRI...(FROM PREVIOUS) CONTINUED COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL TUE/WED...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THU AND SLIGHTLY BACK ABOVE
CLIMO FOR FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED PRECIPITATION
FREE. YET ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
TUE/EARLY WED WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
LATE ON FRI. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MELBOURNE
TO FORT MYERS AND SOUTH. BRIEF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THIS
LINE BUT SHOULD CLOUD UP AGAIN AS STRATOCU STRETCHING FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SOME OF THE UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING BKN-OVC025 SKIES MOVING TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA WERE BEGINNING TO THIN OUT SOME. WILL BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC AND GO WITH VFR AFTER 20/21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS DIE DOWN AROUND 25/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING IN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS EVERYWHERE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT SUBSIDE TO 3 TO
5 FEET SUNDAY.

MON-MON NIGHT...WNW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY WITH FULL SCA CONDS AND
POSSIBLY NEARING GALE DURING THE DAY ON MON...WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY COMING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20-22 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC
MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE/4-6 FT
NEAR SHORE BY LATE DAY/EVENING.

TUE-WED...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS TUE OVERNIGHT/WED. NW/N
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 20 KTS WELL OFFSHORE AND 15-20 KTS CLOSER
TOWARDS THE COAST FOR THIS PERIOD. SEAS MAINLY 5-7 FT OFFSHORE AND
3-5 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST AT TIMES OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THIS PERIOD.

&&
SUN-MON...MIN RELATIVE VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 30S EXCEPT UPPER 30S
RIGHT AT THE COAST FROM SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY. COULD
REALIZE SOME SPRINKLES LATE SUN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$






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