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102
FXUS62 KMLB 300050
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...MOISTURE RETURN TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.1 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING SET
THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR WITH ACTIVITY MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40-45 MPH ACCOMPANIED SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD INTO OSCEOLA AND NRN
OKEECHOBEE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN INTERIOR AREAS BEFORE ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WERE REACHED ALREADY IN SOME SPOTS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL COOLING METRO
ORLANDO INTO THE 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED MINS MAINLY INTO THE MID 70S
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST...CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WHERE STORMS HAVE COOLED THE LOCAL AIRMASS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY...NO SIG CHANGE TO SETUP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE
MOISTURE LEADING TO SCT BOUNDARY DRIVEN STORMS DURING THE AFTN.
AFFECTED AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS WITH AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT COVERAGE NORTH AND CENTRAL AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WEAKLY
STEERED STORMS WL LEND TO HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE INLAND. THE
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT NIGHT...WHICH HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. THE 00Z GFS HAD
SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN
MOISTENING BACK UP BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH POPS
30-40 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR AND NEAR 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST (AND 20 PERCENT AT NIGHT). TEMPS LOOK TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR EXCEPT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S
FOR THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
CHC TSRA WILL CONT FOR KMLB/KVRB VCNTY THROUGH 02-03Z. BCMG VFR
AREAWIDE 20/05Z-20/16Z. SCT TSRA EXPECTED TO DVLP 20/17Z-21Z AND
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM 22Z-24Z SAT AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO MARINE FCST WITH UPDATE. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AROUND 3 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  76  91 /  30  30  20  30
MCO  76  95  75  94 /  30  40  20  40
MLB  78  91  77  91 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  75  91  76  91 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  77  95  77  94 /  30  50  20  40
SFB  78  94  77  94 /  30  40  20  40
ORL  78  95  77  94 /  30  40  20  40
FPR  75  90  75  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/MOSES







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