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700
FXUS62 KMLB 221854
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...LATEST NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT
OVER OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA/NORTH LAKE VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
INDIAN RIVER SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BATTLE BETWEEN
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TRIES TO MIGRATE NORTH AND
HIGHER PRESSURES OVER NORTH FLORIDA TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE KEYS DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY MORNING.
COOLER BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND ROUGHLY FORT PIERCE NORTH THURSDAY. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4/DAYTONA BEACH TO THE LOWER 60S
ORLANDO SANFORD SOUTH AND EAST TO INTERSTATE 95. LOOKING AT MID 60S
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY.

THU-THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND GIVES WAY TO A
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE/TD 9
IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
RIBBON EXTENDS FROM THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MOISTURE RIBBON AND THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST AND AWAY THE AREA AROUND TD9 SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES
MEAGER WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES SO FAR
TO THE SOUTH LEAVES A 20 POP FOR MARTIN AND SOUTH SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT TO THE NORTH. HIGHS AGAIN LOW MID
80S. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4/DAYTONA BEACH TO THE LOWER 60S ORLANDO SANFORD SOUTH
AND EAST TO INTERSTATE 95. LOOKING AT MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE IMPULSE PULLS DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH RAISING POPS FRIDAY THEN POPS LOWER AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS UPPER
50S NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTONA INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIME FRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. BKN-OVC AOA FL120 SOUTHERN TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS RESULTS IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 5 TO OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM.

THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING 15 TO
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS TO 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AND 3 TO 5 THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR THU WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  77  58  79 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  61  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  67  79  65  81 /   0  10  10  20
VRB  68  81  68  82 /  10  10  20  20
LEE  58  81  57  82 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  80  59  82 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  80  61  82 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  67  80  69  81 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN
FORECASTS...WIMMER








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