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806
FXUS62 KMLB 171936
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

..WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD
RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDFLOW AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AREA OF THE HIGH WAS PUSHING MARINE
STRATOCU ASHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER BEAR THIS OUT WITH EASTERLY 20 TO 25
KNOTS WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5000 FEET/APPROX
850MB. THE WINDS THEN MAKE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WEST AT AROUND
6500 FEET AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO 10000 FEET WHICH IS THE
UPPER LIMIT OF THE 915MHZ RECORDING HEIGHTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE.
WEATHER RADARS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TONIGHT...MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS WERE INDICATING THAT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF AND 1.9 INCHES
AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE
LOWER LAYER EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST CHANCE...30-50
PERCENT... OF OVERNIGHT RAINS.

FRIDAY...THE NEWLY FORMED WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING OVER
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDFLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTHERN AREAS TO 80 TO 90
PERCENT NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST AS COLDER...-10C TO -12C...MID LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
SOUTHERN AREAS TO LOW 80S NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING CLEARING CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MID AND UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT AREA. HIGHS RANGE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY TO THE MID 80S ON THE IN THE AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BRING COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES SLOWLY UP
THE PENINSULA.  PREVAILING VFR OVC FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS
AND WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS AVIATION

MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6NM OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 4 AND 7 FEET RESPECTIVELY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING THROUGH 4AM COASTAL ISSUANCE.

FRI...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE COASTAL WATERS COME
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR DECREASES BUT EXPECT TO
HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER.

SAT-MON (MODIFIED)... COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN MARINE THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE
THE FL EAST COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO
7-10FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT
TO N AND NNE BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  78  68  74 /  30  90  60  30
MCO  68  82  67  79 /  30  80  60  30
MLB  72  81  71  79 /  30  60  60  30
VRB  72  81  71  80 /  30  60  60  30
LEE  66  79  65  77 /  30  90  60  30
SFB  67  82  68  79 /  30  80  60  30
ORL  68  82  67  79 /  30  80  60  30
FPR  72  82  70  81 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER







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