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133
FXUS62 KMLB 231916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-WED...SCATTERED SLOW MOVING STORMS ASSISTED BY LARGE SCALE
FORCING FROM ALOFT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. HRRR GUID SUGGEST HIGHER EVENING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
WL KEEP A MENTION OF SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF A QUARTER AN
INCH...WITH LIKELY AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS GIVEN THE RAIN WETTED GROUND
AND LIGHT WINDS.

WED...MAP FEATURE EVOLUTION POINTS TOWARD THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING WHICH HAD BEEN NEAR THE AREA MUCH OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS LIFTING NORTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. A RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMING
EAST EARLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
DURING THE DAY AND WL KEEP LIKELY WORDING TO POP POTENTIAL. UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

THU-MON...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISC) CENTRAL FLORIDA ADVERTISED IN AN
ONSHORE WIND PATTEN. THE EASTERLY WINDS PUSH A MOIST AND RELATIVELY
STABLE MARINE AIRMASS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHCS HOWEVER
WL LOWER TO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING
STORMS AND SHOWERS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. COASTAL TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING A SLIGHT (20 POP) CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS AND REACHING INLAND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH
SUNSET WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
MAY SEE LIGHT -SHRA MAINLY FROM MCO NORTHWARD NEAR STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WITH ANY ONSHORE MOVING CONVECTION ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ALL SITES EARLY WED MAINLY DUE OT
RAIN WETTED GROUNDS AND NEAR CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING WILL CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER SEA STATES INTO THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS OTHERWISE WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS INTO EARLY WED.

WED-SAT...EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS
AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHINGLE CREEK (SHIF1) CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE SINCE EARLY MON AND
HAS NOW FALLEN TO 57.15 FEET WHICH IS NEARLY A FOOT BELOW ACTION
STAGE. ASTOR ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER (ASTF1) AT 2.30 FOOT
CONTINUES TO STEADILY FALL IS ALSO BELOW (ACTION STAGE IS 2.5
FEET).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  74  88 /  40  70  40  50
MCO  71  90  73  90 /  30  70  40  50
MLB  73  87  76  88 /  50  70  40  60
VRB  72  88  75  89 /  50  70  40  60
LEE  71  89  73  90 /  40  60  30  50
SFB  72  89  74  90 /  30  70  40  50
ORL  73  89  75  90 /  30  70  40  50
FPR  73  88  75  88 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...JP
RADAR/DSS...DKW/MRV
HYDROLOGY...PG






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