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994
FXUS62 KMLB 250832
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
LOWER 60S FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOWING STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
BROKEN-OVERCAST COVER.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY THUS EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER TODAY WITH LIGHT MORNING NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 6-12 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. WINDS WILL FALL TO LIGHT AND BELOW 5 MPH THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST COOLER AND WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 DEGREES TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INTO THE INTERIOR. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY REALIZE LOWS IN THE LOW 50S BY SUNRISE SUN
MORNING.

SUN...NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
FULL SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEAR THE AREA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES
AND IMMEDIATE COAST.

MON-FRI...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL MOISTENING PROCESS.
BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL MORNING MON
THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR
AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID 80S...A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WED INTERIOR. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT BUT
MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING A STRONG S/W TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE U.S. LOOKS
SUSPICIOUS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR COOL FRONTS TO COME THROUGH DRY
IF MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS (20
PERCENT) FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. CIGS FROM ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU 040-050 AGL THIS
MORNING. WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH MORNING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME NNE 6-11 KTS INTERIOR AND 8-13
KTS KTIX SOUTHWARD THRU KSUA ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 12Z FOR GULF STREAM WATERS
OFF OF THE TREASURE COAST. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO BE
NECESSARY HERE AFTER 12Z UNTIL AT LEAST THE 10AM/14Z CWF ISSUANCE.

NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KTS OVER THE GULF STREAM SOUTHERN MARINE LEG
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AND 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE INITIAL WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL
DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH 5-7 FT SEAS OVER THE ADVISORY
AREA FALLING TO 4-6 FT THRU THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS
ELSEWHERE MAINLY 3-5 FT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHOPPY.

SUN...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY.
PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT AROUND 10 KNOTS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL.

MON-WED...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
10-14 KNOTS MON AND TUE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PCT NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. DISPERSION INDICES WILL
BE GENERALLY GOOD AREAWIDE. LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN
OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR REACHING 25-30 PERCENT BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT N/NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  80  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  59  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  81  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  79  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  81  58  81  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY









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