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156
FXUS62 KMLB 230019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...STRATIFORM RAINS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN. WHILE
ACTIVITY IS ON A DOWNWARD SWING...THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER (MAINLY KISM NORTHWARD) CLOSER TOWARDS THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALSO AIDING IN ANY
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD STICK
AROUND MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHT. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70
DEGREES TO LOWER 70S.

TUE...MID-LEVEL LOW OVER GA/NC WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND IT ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (OVER 60
PERCENT). FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD BACK MAX DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
COULD STILL SEE OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPING SHRAS...AND TSRAS (MAINLY
FROM MCO NORTHWARD NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY). TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS IN ANY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HIGH THAN
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-TUE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVERNIGHT. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. MAINLY S/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION. SE
WINDS CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS ON TUE WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT. OFFSHORE MOVING
CELLS A GOOD BET AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVENING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FURTHER RISES AT
SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1). LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
SLOWLY DECREASING WATER LEVELS WITH THE LATEST STAGE (AS OF 7PM) AT
57.43FT WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE ACTION STAGE OF 58.00FT.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THIS BASIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND WITH CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH LATE
WEEK WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE BASIN FOR RAPID RESPONSE
AND RISES TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ANOTHER SITE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE ASTOR ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER (ASTF1) AS IT IS COMING
CLOSE TO ACTION STAGE AT 2.38 FEET (ACTION STAGE IS 2.5 FEET).
HOWEVER ANY RISES IN THIS LOCATION WILL NOT BE AS QUICK TO RESPOND
TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER






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