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109
FXUS62 KMLB 201808
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH PREVAILING FLOW A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST-SOUTHWEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...CURRENTLY INTO ABOUT I-95 FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
JUST INLAND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. SO FAR JUST A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INLAND TO THE LAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IS THIS AREA...AND
MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTH...FAR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO LAKE COUNTY CURRENTLY. A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY CREEP INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET AS THE
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST.

SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

THU-SAT...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN GULF AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
SHOWING A VERY WEAK MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDING INTO THE STATE THURS AND
FRI AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO 20 PERCENT COAST/30 PERCENT INTERIOR FOR ALL THREE DAYS
WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST PENINSULA AS STEERING
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
ABOVE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR
NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVERNIGHT.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH POSSIBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. WILL GO WITH SCT
RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSRA VCNTY KVRB-KSUA AND KLEE AND KDAB THROUGH
23Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW INTO THURS WITH WDLY SCT ACTIVITY
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 19Z WITH FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH E-SE WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FLOW BECOMING S-SW 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2
FEET WITH UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNING...TURNING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL
LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  77  97  78  97 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  77  98  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  78  98  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  75  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER
BACKUP OPERATIONS...BRAGAW/VOLKMER/BLOTTMAN







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