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163
FXUS62 KMLB 241806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING
THROUGH THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITS INFLUENCE ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE OVERSHADOWED BY THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON (SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE HINTING AT IT
BETWEEN 4-6KFT) FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MOST ROBUST CU
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES STEADILY INLAND. WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE HASN`T MADE IT QUITE AS FAR INLAND...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO
COLLIDE SOMEWHERE IN THE LAKE COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLLISION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS LAKE AND FAR WESTERN ORANGE/NW OSCEOLA
COUNTY.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC SCOOTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EVEN ALONG MOST OF THE COAST.
WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM...LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS A BIT
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN SO
FOG/STRATUS DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWEST AS WE FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LITTLE IMPACT ON PENINSULA FLORIDA. WIND DIRECTION WILL TAP INTO
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST LOOKS DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE GULF STREAM
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE MORNING. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND LIKELY JUST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS A RESULT IT WILL BE A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EVEN ALONG
THE COAST.

SAT-SUN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS
SOUTH FL WILL COLLAPSE SAT AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
NRN FL AND THEN WASHES OUT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE SE
STATES INTO THE ATLC FOR SUN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
INTO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVHD. WHILE THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A SMALL
LATE DAY SHOWER/TS THREAT VIS SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE FAR WRN
INTERIOR...RISING H50 HGTS/TEMPS COULD TEMPER THAT SMALL-TO-BEGIN-
WITH THREAT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH
MAXES IN THE L-M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND U80S TO AROUND 90F
INLAND. MINS MAINLY IN THE U60S.

MON-THU (PREV)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL BKN DIURNAL CU FL040-050
THROUGH SUNSET. COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
VCNTY KLEE-KISM MAY GENERATE ISOLD SHRA BETWEEN 24/22Z AND 25/02Z.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS 25/08Z-25/13Z WITH BEST COVERAGE IN AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF I-4. DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-FRIDAY...PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
10KTS INTO THIS EVENING WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
10-15KTS OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE FROM WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH
AND MOVEMENT OF HIGH TO OUR EAST. OVERALL WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
5-10KTS ON FRIDAY...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE BRINGING WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARDS NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS 1-3FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8-9 SEC.

SAT-TUE...COLLAPSE OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO SHIFT
TO NW-N ON SAT...BUT THEN QUICKLY VEER BACK ONSHORE BY SUN...AND
SRLY ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRETCH OF FINE BOATING WX CONTINUING. LITTLE
OR NO PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL A SMALL CHANCE CREEPS
INTO THE FCST BY NEXT TUE. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SAT-SUN...MIN RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REACH
BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR BUT WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. NO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  86  62  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  66  87  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  65  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  88  64  88 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  65  89  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  65  88  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI






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