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214
FXUS62 KMLB 220947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL JET
PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER THE
W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.

SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN
VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE N/NW AFT
SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE BAHAMAS...MODERATE
TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET.
SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE INLET THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT S OF THE INLET AFT
SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW






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