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FXUS62 KMLB 311352
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
DEPICTED FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
DEWPOINT VALUES TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE ARE WELL INTO THE 70S
WITH UPPER 60S TO THE WEST OF IT. THE KXMR MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS
RETURNING MOISTURE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94" WHICH IS
ABOUT A HALF INCH IMPROVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY`S PROFILE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM WITH A 700 MB TEMPERATURE OF +9.6C AND
A 500 MB TEMPERATURE OF ONLY -4.3C. THIS CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURSTS LATER TODAY.
STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BE SLOWER AND LESS THAN 10 MPH AND
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH. GREATER CELL COVERAGE WILL BE LOCATED
SOUTH OF ORLANDO (SCATTERED) WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST AND
THEREFORE A FEW CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE NORTH OF ORLANDO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO REMAIN A
CONCERN WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS...ISOLD STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVE OVER THE
INTERIOR DUE TO A LATE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD
THEN SHIFT BACK OVER THE ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES RESIDE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OF IT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE
SOUTHWARD FROM KMCO WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. WILL KEEP
VCTS/TEMPO GROUPS AS THEY STAND IN TAFS AND CONSIDER TEMPO GROUPS
NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST AS CONDITIONS DICTATE.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT MORNING FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME ESE
AROUND 10-12 KTS AT COAST WITH INITIATION OF THE ECSB. WIND FLOW
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE SE/S INCREASING
TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS INCREASING OFFSHORE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS LIFTING NORTH MAY PUSH OFFSHORE
PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST THIS AFTN AND CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER






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