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[Printable]
637
FXUS62 KMLB 230737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GFS SINCE 24
HOURS AGO. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SEAWARD THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY FROM THE EARLY DAY VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODIFY INLAND WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 80S.
COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN.

THETA E PROGS SHOW THAT THE WESTERN END OF THIS BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. SOMETIMES WITH THESE
WEAK BOUNDARIES THERE IS SOME PRE FRONTAL MOISTENING...SO WITH
LIGHT WINDS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OVERNIGHT STRATOCUMULUS THOUGH...
SO WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU...TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST NEAR TO JUST
OFFSHORE OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE
COLLISION THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THE COLLISION CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
INTO LATE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. HOWEVER RESULTING CAPE VALUES SEEM FAIRLY LOW...LESS THAN 500
J/KG. ADDING TO THAT...SPC CURRENTLY DOESN`T HAVE A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THE PENINSULA ON DAY 2. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AND
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISES UNDER
S/SE FLOW.

MON-WED...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND WITH ANY LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HIGHS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AT MOST SITES AS TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE MOSTLY 3 DEGREES
OR LESS AT THE PRESENT TIME. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CEILINGS
AS THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME STRATUS WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF KLEE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE DAYTIME LOOKS TO BE VFR.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-4 MAY BE IN THE CARDS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...OFFSHORE GRADIENT WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS SEAWARD TO THE
NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL KICK
IN ALONG THE COAST BUT LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS. THEN
OVERNIGHT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH (BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
TROUGH). SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

THU-SUN...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS LESS
THAN 15 MPH THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  82  65 /   0  10  20  20
MCO  85  63  87  65 /   0  10  20  20
MLB  81  64  83  67 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  82  63  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  86  64  86  65 /   0  10  20  10
SFB  86  64  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
ORL  85  66  86  67 /   0  10  20  20
FPR  81  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





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