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000 FXUS62 KMLB 240247 AFDMLB EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 947 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... ...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK THEN TURNING DRIER AND MUCH COOLER FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND... WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL SFC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRATUS CIGS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY INCERASING AS WELL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE BEEFED UP THE FOG MENTION BUT AM HESITANT TO SHOW DENSE WORDING ATTM AS IT WL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED. PREV DISC... TUE...UPR JETSTRK OVHD DEPARTS TO THE NE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBDEDDED IN THE NOW-POTENT SRN STREAM LIFTS NEWD FROM OLD MEX INTO THE GOMEX. STALLED FRONTAL BDRY OVER THE SRN CWA WILL BEGIN TO GET OVERRUN BY INCRSG SW SLOW OF LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE FROM LATE TNGT INTO TUE...LEADING TO INCRSG CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AREAWIDE FOR TUE. PRETTY BIG DIPARITY BTWN MET (LKLY) AND MAV (~10%) POPS TNGT... AND AS SUCH HAVE KEPT IN SMALL CHC FOR THE CTRL SOUTH...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING 60-70 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR TUE...WHICHIS PROBABLY NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF. TO BETTER AGREE WITH ADJCT OFFICES HAVE SHAVED BACK TO HIGH END CHC (50) FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && .AVIATION... EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/LIFR ST FOR THE NRN HALF CWA AGAIN STARTING 07Z-09Z THRU ABOUT 14Z-15Z WITH SOME MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS. && .MARINE... SWELL COMPONENT BECOMING MINIMAL WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVALENT. HAVE TRIMMED ALL SEAS BACK TO 3 FT OR LESS PAST 2 AM INTO TUE. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ JP/TS