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[Printable]
733
FXUS62 KMLB 230802
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. DUE TO MID LEVEL UPSTREAM RIDGE A RATHER CAPPED
BAROTROPIC ATMOSPHERE WL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
THE ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST BOUNDARY MOVING WELL INLAND BY MID
AFTERNOON DUE TO NE WINDS ABOVE THE BL. AFTERNOON HEATING AND
UPWARD FORCING AIDED MOSTLY BY COLLISION OF BOUNDARIES OVER THE
INTERIOR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WL HELP PRODUCE A FEW SLOW
SOUTHWARD MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS.

AFFECTED AREAS WL MAINLY BE FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF
METRO ORLANDO AND THE THEME PARKS OF KISSIMMEE/SAINT CLOUD TO A
FEW SPOTS NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. PRIMARY HAZARDS WL BE
LIGHTNING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

HIGHS WL MAKE IT TO THE MID 90S INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AND BEACHES HELPED BY THE AFTERNOON
ONSHORE BREEZE. HEAT INDEX VALUES INLAND WL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES AT MID AFTERNOON. WL KEEP MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED STORMS
WELL INLAND THROUGH AROUND 11 PM. CLEARING SKIES AFTERWARD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD TO WARM OVERNIGHT.

SUN-MON...
MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN TO AMPLIFY INTO AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING
PATTERN. A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE NE CONUS WILL BE FED BY AN 80-100KT
JET DIGGING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN 80-100KT MERIDIONAL
JET OVER THE PAC NW FEEDS A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS.

DEEP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BLOCK OUT
ANY MEANINGFUL MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHILE MAINTAINING THE
CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE N/NE FLOW REGIME ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. WILL
SEE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLP EARLY AND PUSH WELL INLAND PRIOR
TO MAX HEATING. SFC HEATING AND MESOSCALE BNDRY COLLISIONS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT. SUN POPS AOB 30PCT AS THE THE
N/NE FLOW TRANSPORTS RELATIVELY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO FL. A BRIEF
MOISTURE SURGE MAY OCCUR ON MON AS ERN TROF PUSHES A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN AOB 40PCT AS
THE NE FLOW WILL TEND TO FOCUS ANY DIURNAL PRECIP OVER THE W FL
COAST.

CONTINUED WARM AS THE LOW STORM COVERAGE/CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR NEAR
FULL SUN THRU MIDDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL TRANSPORT WARM OCEAN AIR ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE
M-U70S.

TUE-FRI...
FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER HISPANIOLA. GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LOW PRECIP REGIME AS THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND PLACES CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS DESCENDING WRN
FLANK. SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE AS A DEEP LYR FRONTAL TROF OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST HAS CREATED A COL IN BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50
WIND FIELDS N/NE OF THE BAHAMAS THAT WOULD TEND TO DRAW THE LOW ON A
MORE N/NE TRACK. N/NERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL DRY/STABLE MID LVL AIR INTO THE CWA WITH MID LVL TEMPS WARMING
TO ARND 10C AT H70...AOA -2C AT H50...H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES FALLING
BLO 20PCT. WILL KEEP POPS AOB 30PCT THRU THE WEEK...CONTINUED WARM
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS IN THE M/U70S.

NOTE: FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SIG
CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVALENT THROUGH 19Z. FM 19Z THROUGH 02Z ISOLD SHRA AND TS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL MNLY W OF A LINE FROM DED-
MCO-OBE. AFT 02Z VFR AREA WIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE
WATERS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT AND WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST IS MINIMAL. AN ONSHORE
BREEZE FROM EARLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WL PRODUCE A LITTLE WIND
CHOP NR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE OPEN INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL LIFT ACRS THE SRN
BAHAMAS...FORCING A LIGHT SRLY BREEZE TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND FRESHEN
TO 10-15KTS THRU LATE AFTN. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 3-5FT OVERNIGHT.

MON-WED...
AS THE LOW PRESSES NWD AND INTERACTS WITH A BROAD HI PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE NE FETCH WILL EXPAND ALL THE WAY TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS...BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH ON MON AND CONTG THRU MIDWEEK.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY WILL PUSH SEAS INTO THE CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY
RANGE BY MON AFTN...CONTG THRU MIDWEEK.

NOTE: FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SIG
CHANGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  93  78 /  10  10  20  20
MCO  96  75  96  77 /  20  10  30  20
MLB  92  74  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
VRB  91  72  91  77 /  10  10  20  20
LEE  96  77  96  77 /  20  20  30  20
SFB  97  77  96  78 /  20  10  20  20
ORL  96  78  95  78 /  20  10  30  20
FPR  90  72  90  77 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW






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