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463
FXUS62 KMLB 251839
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF
STREAM THIS AFTERNOON..BUT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS KEEP
IT OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THAT IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE WARM GULF
STREAM...NO IMPACTS TO LAND ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST.

LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE WELL OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL DROP TO 5 MPH OR LESS UNDER
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR ALL BUT THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF
THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S. THE
COLDER COASTAL TEMPS ARE CONTINGENT ON WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NNW
OVERNIGHT...IF THEY REMAIN MORE NORTHERLY OR N-NORTHEAST
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT FLORIDA FALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL MARINE STRATOCU ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...THOUGH MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING EVEN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NORTH WINDS
WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT
THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MON-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL VEER WINDS TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTENING PROCESS.
MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH SUPPRESSED BY THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ALL SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MORNING MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S...A FEW UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE WED INTERIOR.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL
FRONT BUT MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWING A STRONG S/W TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE U.S. LOOKS
SUSPICIOUS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR COOL FRONTS TO COME THROUGH DRY IF
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS (20
PERCENT) FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM MARINE STRATOCU FL03-050
BRUSHING COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FURTHER OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF.
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VEERS
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EAST-NORTHEAST LATE ON SUN.
THOUGH THERE`S BEEN SOME GUSTINESS AT LOCAL C-MANS AND
BUOYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AROUND 15KTS WITH AN
18Z SHIP OB IN THE GULF STREAM SUPPORTING THOSE OBS. WINDS 15KTS
OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING 10-15KTS
OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF STREAM
AND 3-4FT ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND
10KTS. SEAS 3-4FT...REMAINING CHOPPY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COUNTER COMPONENT.

SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH 4-6 FT AND CHOPPY OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE CHOPPY.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF CAROLINA
COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST FOR MON AND TUES WITH AXIS OVERHEAD
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS 2-3FT WITH UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES SEEM TO BE BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 35
AND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-4 WHERE WINDS ALSO REMAIN LIGHTER
FROM THE NORTH. BREEZY WINDS 10-15MPH ALONG THE COAST HAVE GAINED A
BIT OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WHICH HAS HALTED ANY FURTHER RH DROPS.

RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT WEST OF I-4 ON SUNDAY
AFTN BUT N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10MPH OR LESS ALSO LEADING TO
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS. DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE LOWER RH VALUES...THOUGH THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR MAY SEE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ON MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  59  81  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO








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