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695
FXUS62 KMLB 212024
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700 MB OVER SOUTH FL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON TMFL 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.9 INCHES. LITTLE
FLOW BELOW 700 MB IS YET AVAILABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MID-ATLANIC SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SAT WHICH OPENS DOOR FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH
WITH WARM FRONT. HOWEVER IT WILL OVERRIDE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH WILL DRY UP MUCH OF THE RAIN TRYING TO
FORM BELOW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT/SAT. EVEN NOW THIS MOISTURE
IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FL AND DO
NOT EXPECT ANY BETTER HERE. KEPT ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECASTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT WI ONSHORE FLOW. MID-LVL CIGS TO INCR TONITE
AND MVFR CIGS MAY BCM QUITE WDSPRD BY SAT MRNG ALG WI AREAS OF
SHRA THO MOISTURE WL BATTLE DRY AIR AT LOW LVLS. BREEZY CONDS TO
CONT. WINDS BLO FL050 E 16-25 KT BCMG ESE BY LATE SAT. WINDS
ABV FL050 BCM SW AND INCR TO 35 KT BY FL150...WKNG TO S TO W 5-18
KT SAT NITE BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO SSE-SSW 25-35 KT SAT NITE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NC/SC ON SAT WILL CONTINUE
CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW TO BE QUITE STRONG TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY SUN AS IT
MOVES INTO WEST ATLANTIC AND THE WARM FRONT EXITS NORTH. MODELS
STILL SUGGEST SEAS RISING TO A MAX OF 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND RETAINED
FORECAST AS IS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  75  71  81 /  20  20  60  50
MCO  60  78  68  82 /  10  20  60  50
MLB  71  78  74  82 /  20  30  50  40
VRB  71  79  75  83 /  20  30  40  40
LEE  58  77  66  82 /  10  20  60  50
SFB  59  77  68  83 /  10  20  60  50
ORL  61  77  68  82 /  10  20  60  50
FPR  70  78  75  83 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...54







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