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402
FXUS62 KMLB 241333
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A LONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLAND
WILL PRODUCE BRISK WINDS FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS FROM
MELBOURNE TO JUPITER INLET TODAY. THE BRISK ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING AREAS OF LOW/STRATIFORM CLOUDS ASHORE MELBOURNE SOUTH
WITH MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FORT PIERCE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
FLORIDA FAA AND NWS WEATHER RADARS WERE DETECTING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN FROM AROUND MIAMI SOUTH AND EAST TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE A
SURFACE LOW WAS/HAD FORMING/FORMED. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD DRIFT NORTH TO SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY AND COASTAL
WATERS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL.

WE WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO COVER TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA HELPING TO INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS
WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHEREAS
FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY
ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE
(30 TO 40 PERCENT)POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) EXTENDED NORTH INTO INDIAN RIVER AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. LIGHTNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WORDING AS SHOWERS. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER PRESSURES SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURES NORTH TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AWAY FROM THESE AREAS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA WITH INCREASING (MID-HIGH) CLOUDS SOUTHWARD CLOSER
TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THANKS IN PART TO ELEVATED WINDS HERE WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND FURTHER
INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH ONTO THE COAST.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY NARROW MOISTURE LAYER SO WILL NOT FORECAST MEASURABLE
PRECIP. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE COUNTY). HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.

SUN-THU...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE DUE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY
COOL MORNINGS SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS SUN IN THE LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MARINE STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE ATLANTIC MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL COME
ASHORE DURING THE DAY KOMN SOUTH AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND AS FAR AS
KDED-KISM. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS KOMN-JUPITER INLET WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES KMLB SOUTH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ASHORE KVRB SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA BUOYS AND CMAN BUOYS WERE
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LING TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET STILL A GOOD
CALL. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THE BREVARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET FOR NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT HERE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY FROM SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH BREVARD
COUNTY FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER THE SCA
AREA WITH SEAS FURTHER NORTH BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION
FOR THE GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY.

SUN-TUE...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT
IDEAL. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD
TO VERY GOOD AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  61  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  66  81  62 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  82  69  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  80  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  82  62  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  68  82  62 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER






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