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922
FXUS62 KMLB 200716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND A CONSIDERABLY
DRY AIRMASS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHERE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OCCUR TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND TOWARD VOLUSIA COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/TOWARD SUNSET ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
90S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOW 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD
COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 100-105 FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING PAST SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THU-SAT...A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT WL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEEK`S
END DUE TO A NEARLY STNRY UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF. PROXIMITY OF FEATURE WL LEAD TO AN LESS THAN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTN STORMS. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WL BE MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERSTATE FOUR
DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BOUNDARY GENERATED SLOW MOVING
STORMS. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS
AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH PSBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. WL GO WITH SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN
LINE TO CLIMO AND ALSO DUE TO RELOCATION OF UPR RIDGE FARTHER FROM
THE IMMEDIATE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIRMASS KEEPS
CONVECTION EXTREMELY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO WEST OF KVRB-KSUA TAF SITES
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AND TOWARD KDAB NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ADD TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE S/SW TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.

LATE WEEK...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT OR LESS. SEA
BREEZES WL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  94  76 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  96  76  96  75 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  93  76  93  76 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  93  75  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
LEE  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
SFB  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  96  78  96  79 /  20  10  30  10
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





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