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[Printable]
723
FXUS62 KMLB 230731
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF MEXICO WILL MOVE
TOWARD S FL THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
LATER TONIGHT. A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER
INTO S FL TODAY. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE SRN
TREASURE COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY NE FLOW
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SFC FRONT
POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE FOR SOME ATLC SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. CIRRUS
HAS MOVED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SE ONCE AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S N CSTL TO LWR-MID 80S
OVER THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...00Z GFS FCSTS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
KEYS NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO MARTIN COUNTY AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
MAINLY SOUTH OF ST LUCIE INLET. WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH
LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SE STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE  MID TO UPPER 50S NRN INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS 24 HOUR
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OVERTOP AN OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP HERE DURING THE DAY AND PROCEED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
COVERAGE WARNING AREA...BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES
TO LOWER 80S. LOWS MIDDLE/UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
60S ELSEWHERE...HIGHEST VALUES REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GOMEX. LIGHT EARLY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NNE/NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 8-13
MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS. UNTIL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT THERE COULD BE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
LOWS IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MAINLY LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. VCSH KSUA VCNTY TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM FOR THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THESE AREAS. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCEC GOING FOR THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT IN GULF STREAM.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WITH STRONGER WINDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BORDERLINE
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET AWAY FROM THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 16-23 KTS HERE
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BECOMING 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION FRI EVENING WILL BACK TO N/NNW. SEAS 2-4 FT
DURING THE DAY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE SOUTH OF HERE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX A BIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH N/NW WIND SPEEDS 10-15
KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 37-40 PCT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TODAY WITH
NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. FRI-SUN...MIN
RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  58  79  60 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  81  60  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  79  65  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  81  68  82  66 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  80  58  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  80  59  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  81  69  81  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







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