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273
FXUS62 KMLB 290806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES...
GENERATING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS UP
TO 50 PERCENT MOST AREAS WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF SEA
BREEZE...HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 30 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

WED-THU...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH
FOR TREASURE COAST AND VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF
THIS AREA WILL REALIZE RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND
REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB
POPS...AND TO LEVELS TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4. FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE BUT WITH AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STILL GATHERED OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD
TREASURE COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD
FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER
EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW BANDED MOISTURE ALL
LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND RE-ESTABLISH FOR THE
PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM
ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF
A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS AREAS FROM KISM/KMCO NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS CURRENTLY BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
CONVECTION WILL START EARLIER.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR
LESS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE OF
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WITH A FEW CONTAINING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WED-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH. NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  75 /  50  20  10  10
MCO  93  75  95  75 /  50  30  20  20
MLB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
VRB  93  74  92  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  92  74  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SFB  93  76  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
ORL  93  76  95  78 /  50  30  20  20
FPR  93  75  91  73 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS








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