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594
FXUS62 KMLB 241905
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AS MARINE CONDITIONS ABATE...
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE-
EARLY WED...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...VERY WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S EVEN WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE DEEP S/SSW FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING AT DAB, MCO, MLB AND
VRB. S/SSW WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE LATE IN
THE DAY AND BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA...THOUGH WE LACK A BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL
FORCING. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS RELATIVELY WARM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN STYMIED SOUTH AND EAST OF
ECFL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NORTH FL THIS EVENING
AND N/C FL NEAR SUNRISE TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY. SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (PWAT`S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) INFILTRATING THE AREA BY
EARLY MORNING TUE. WHILE WE STILL BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE AROUND EXPECT PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AROUND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL GREET THE NEW DAY. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THIS FEATURE
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL (60 TO 90 PERCENT) POPS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH CHANCE (40 TO 50
PERCENT) WORDING ALONG THE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTY COASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS THE DAY TWO
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC HAS ECFL IN A MARGINAL CATEGORY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION THOUGH SUSPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTHWARD.

TUE NIGHT-WED...ONGOING FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN GULF ALONG A STATIONARY SFC WAVE PARKED ACROSS N
CENTRAL FL WL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW PRES TRACKING NEWRD ACROSS N
FL OVERNIGHT AND EXITING THE FL EAST COAST EARLY WED. PRESENCE OF
STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS AREA WL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE
OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY AREAS NWD. ADDITIONALLY EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WITHIN
STORMS. THE ECFL FORECAST AREA IS OUTLOOKED WITH A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED AT THIS TIME
AND PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY WED INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
REPLACEMENT WITH ATTENDANT DRYING WILL ALLOW AN END TO MOST RAIN
CHCS BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHC OF MORNING THUNDER
AND SOME HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SUN...(PREV DISC) A POWERFUL LIFTING JET STREAK E OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL GENERATE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH/MID ATLC REGION THAT WILL INDUCE A NEW CYCLONE TO
DVLP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. EMBEDDED WITH THE STRONG SWRLY FLOW...THE LOW
WILL RACE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU AND CRANK
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL STRAITS.

DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
POST FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX/SRN PLAINS MERGES WITH A
CONTINENTAL RIDGE DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU FRI NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M/U60S...MIN
TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER
TO NE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W
ATLC. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK
ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR CLIMO BY SAT AFTN.
MAXES L/M70S...MINS M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
STUBBORN PATCHY FOG (BR)/LOW STRATUS COMBO LIKELY TO BE PROBLEMATIC
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING WITH VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING LATE TONIGHT COULD
FACTOR IN SOME LIGHT PCPN TOWARD SUNRISE TUE MORNING. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...FROM LATE
TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR SEAS BUILDING TO 6
FT FOR TONIGHT PERIOD. SEAS 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN NEAR 15 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND 10-15 KTS CLOSER
TOWARDS THE COAST. LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 9-10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE.

TUE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVING MADE IT INTO N/C FL BY DAYBREAK TUE
MORNING WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY REMAINING
PRETTY MUCH NEAR STATIONARY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWARD TO
ALONG THIS FEATURE. S/SSW WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IF THIS BOUNDARY DOES INDEED MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH
INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS WINDS MAY VEER AROUND TO NNE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST ON THIS DAY. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET WITH OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...A
FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS
ALL IN PLAY.

WED...GRADIENT WINDS QUITE STRONG FROM EARLY WED ONWARD WITH APCH
AND THEN PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR A TIME EARLY WED. IT IS
EXPECTED ADVISORY CONDS WL BE WELL IN PLACE AREAWIDE FOR ALL OF
WED.

THU-FRI...(PREV DISC) POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ACRS
THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION THRU THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. SFC PGRAD WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS IT DOES...ALLOWING
N/NW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BY MIDDAY
THU...THEN A MODERATE N/NE BREEZE BY MIDDAY FRI. SEAS WILL IMPROVE
AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM
WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS
4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND
4-6FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND ALL WITHIN REACH

DAB 85 1992
MCO 86 1992
MLB 88 1979
VRB 85 1948

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  78  57  66 /  20  80  90  50
MCO  69  81  57  65 /  20  80  90  50
MLB  73  82  61  69 /  20  70  70  60
VRB  71  84  64  71 /  20  60  60  60
LEE  69  79  55  65 /  20  90 100  40
SFB  70  79  58  67 /  20  80  90  50
ORL  70  80  56  65 /  20  80  90  50
FPR  71  84  64  69 /  20  60  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






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