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670
FXUS62 KMLB 250733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY AND TOWARD FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING W/SW AND USHERING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
THIS WILL PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION
LATE IN THE DAY THAT WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LATER START
AND LESS INLAND PUSH OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S.

SAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY SAT
WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO GA AND THEN OFF THE SE ATLC
COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LVL WNW FLOW IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEARBY. A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE H7-H3 LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION EVEN
WITH AN EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC ON SUNDAY
WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPING. AIRMASS WILL BE INITIALLY
VERY DRY BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WITH CONVERGENCE FROM INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE FROM BOTH COASTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
MID 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.

MON-WED...A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK...S-SE
LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE ATLC SFC RIDGE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
COAST TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S LOWER 70S.

THU-FRI...THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER FL WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD N FL AND THE SE STATES. FOR THU...GFS INDICATES DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH A HIGHER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR WITH LATE DAY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. WILL
GO WITH 30 POPS NORTH TO 10 PCT S CSTL WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD MOVE INLAND BY AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY...PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 09-13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A S/SE WIND
COMPONENT WILL RETURN NEAR THE BREVARD/TREASURE COAST AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH.  HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SAT/SUN WILL ALLOW
MIN RHS TO DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  83  65 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  88  65  88  66 /   0  10  10   0
MLB  86  64  85  68 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  86  64  87  67 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  87  65  88  67 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  88  66  87  67 /   0  10  10   0
ORL  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  10   0
FPR  86  64  86  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER







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