weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  
[Printable]
445
FXUS62 KMLB 220113
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR FROM AROUND LAKE GEORGE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE. LIKE
LAST EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BE WELL ON THEIR WAY IN DISSIPATING
AS THEY WILL HAVE WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE STORMS DISSIPATE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE
OVERNIGHT.

DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
AFTER MIDNIGHT MEAN ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT.

WILL HOLD OFF AN UPDATE UNTIL THE TREND OF STORMS DISSIPATING LOOKS
GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

THU-SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUN THEN BEGINS A SLOW WEAKEN TREND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SANDWICHED
BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST TWO/2 TO THREE/3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEIR CLIMATE HIGHS OF THE LOWER 90S.

NEXT WEEK...LTST GUID CONTINUES BIAS TOWARD AN EAST TRACK OF
CURRENT INVEST AREA 96 WHICH WOULD MOVE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
MARINE BASED SH/TS. WILL CONTINUE SCENARIO OF SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER
IN LINE TO CLIMO WHILE A THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS THAN
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND OF TREASURE COAST AND
LATER IN THE DAY WEST OF KMCO. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY LATE MORNING. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS THROUGH 22/14Z.

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FEET OFFSHORE AND 1 FOOT NEARSHORE. STORMS IN AND
NEAR THE GULF STREAM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET
OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER








U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE