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222
FXUS62 KMLB 160817
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BREEZY AND UNSETTLED WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAS DOWN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TRACING ITS
PATH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE THE FRONT CLEARING THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC AT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL BE VEERING NORTHEAST AFTER
DAYBREAK...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE.

DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S AS FAR SOUTH
AS MELBOURNE...INDICATING THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTH FOR A DRY START TO THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT AT LEAST
OVER THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST WHERE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS DRIED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW PEAKS OF SUN EARLY BEFORE ONSHORE WIND PUSH
SPREADS CLOUDINESS BACK INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION REMAIN HOW MUCH FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN
TODAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE INTERIOR
AND VOLUSIA COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC...BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TREASURE COAST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT.

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF TONIGHT
LIFTING THE FRONTAL MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
GFS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE FRONT MIGRATES BACK
NORTH WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH 15-20KT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS IN
THE 1.70-1.80" RANGE MAY BE ABLE TO SET UP A FEW HEAVY COASTAL
PRECIP BANDS.

CLOUD COVER AND COOL ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.
MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND MID 60S INLAND. IT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...AND A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES.

THU-SAT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FL ON FRI-FRI NIGHT...AND JUST HOW MUCH PHASING
OCCURS WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM
TROUGH ONCE THE FORMER FEATURE REACHES FL. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FAVORED A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...THE GFS IS NOW ALONE IN SHOWING
THIS WHILE THE ECM/UKM AND EVEN THE OFT-DISREGARDED NAM ARE SHOWING
A SLOWER AND MORE PHASED/AMPLIFIED/CUTOFF SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD BRING
A STRONGER/SLOWER MOVING SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE STATE AND A MORE
PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT. HENCE...IT NOW SEEMS PRUDENT TO GO WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NWD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS UPGLIDE PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE
OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN
GOMEX. A SFC WAVE OR WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX THU
NIGHT AND LOOKS TO GET PULLED NEWD UNDERNEATH (OR NEARLY SO) THE H50
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF...BY FRI. THE
NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE EWD (OR EVEN ESEWD) AND MOVE
FROM THE NERN GOMEX ACROSS THE NRN/CTRL PENINSULA LATE FRI THROUGH
EARLY SAT...AND THEN OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY.

FAIRLY DECENT SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE
PENINSULA...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW AND ASCD COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
(PERHAPS PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SQLN) FRI EVENING/NIGHT.
POPS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN HIKED UP ACCORDINGLY.
WENT BELOW MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES EACH DAY OWING TO
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

SUN-TUE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
RESULTING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. THE
POP-FREE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN IS PREDICATED ON THE LOW GETTING
NUDGED FASTER/FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST SUCH THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WOULD BE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...TEMPO IN AREAS NORTH
OF I-4 WHERE POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS ARE AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KTS. TOUGH CIG FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES INITIALLY WITH BRIEF PERIOD AT
COASTAL SITES NORTH OF KMLB. TREASURE COAST SITES EXPECTED TO KEEP
CIGS ALL DAY THOUGH MAY SEE PERIOD 10Z-14Z WHERE CIGS BECOME MORE
TEMPO AS INITIAL NORTHERLY WIND PUSH REACHES THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...COASTAL SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING CIGS FL025-035 AFTER
14Z SPREADING INLAND AFTER 19Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING NE AFTER 14Z WITH SUSTAINED 12-15KT AT COAST AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25KTS.

MOSTLY DRY DAY...BUT INCREASING SHRA LIFTING BACK INTO AREAS SOUTH
OF KVRB AFTER 20Z AND OVERSPREADING REST OF COAST AFTER 17/02Z.

&&

MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25KTS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING AS FLOW VEERS
NORTHEAST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET...WINDS OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST MAY BE CLOSER TO 15-20KTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FRONT LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH.

SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9FT OVER THE GULF STREAM BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE BRISK NE FLOW WITH 4-7FT CLOSER TO THE COAST. DOMINANT PERIODS
SHORT AND CHOPPY AT 5-7SEC.

THU-SUN...STOUT ONSHORE FLOW EARLY ON THU WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET...AND A MODERATE SRLY BREEZE ON THE WARM SECTOR IS
LIKELY TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO AT LEAST WHERE A CAUTIONARY STMT
WILL STILL BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF NRLY FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW INDICATED FOR LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND FWD SPEED OF OF THE LOW AFTER IT REACHES THE ATLC
SIDE...THIS COULD NECESSITATE ANOTHER SCA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  66  73  67 /  10  30  50  50
MCO  75  65  77  66 /  10  20  50  50
MLB  76  70  77  70 /  10  40  50  40
VRB  76  70  79  71 /  10  40  50  40
LEE  74  62  74  65 /   0  20  50  50
SFB  73  64  74  66 /  10  20  50  50
ORL  75  64  75  67 /  10  20  50  50
FPR  75  70  79  71 /  20  40  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI






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