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445
FXUS62 KMLB 270225
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...
...WIND CHILL READINGS MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY...

.UPDATE...DRY AND CHILLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WELL
DEVELOPED TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST (ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS)
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP (AROUND 10 MPH) THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME RESIDUAL WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
GRADUALLY DECOUPLE. WIND SHEAR NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF
EXPLICITLY SINCE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 6 - 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE (1000-2000
FEET ALOFT) WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTINESS RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS THE FURTHER OFFSHORE YOU GO. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KTS W/ FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST
WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. CLOSER TO THE COAST...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 20 - 25 KNOT WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS.

TUE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW 15 -
20 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 20 - 25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LIKELY TO BE MET ON TUESDAY (MIN
RH FORECAST AROUND 40 FOR MOST OF AREA). AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS FROM
THE WEST OF 20-25 MPH AND GOOD DISPERSION SUGGESTS RAPID SPREAD POTENTIAL
SHOULD ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR.

MIDWEEK...NW WINDS EARLY ARE FORECAST TO VEER ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW RH AREAS INLAND WL SEE SOME DURATION
CRITERIA IN THE 30S...HOWEVER OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. ONSHORE WINDS
PAST MIDWEEK FOR THE COAST AND INLAND WL KEEP LOW AFTERNOON RH
MODERATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  62  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  42  64  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  44  64  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  65  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  42  63  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  42  64  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  43  64  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  44  66  44  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST...ULRICH
IMPACT WX...LASCODY







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