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506
FXUS62 KMLB 222052
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...
UPR LVL WIND PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY AS A 150KT JET
STREAK DIGS ACRS THE ROCKY MTNS WHILE THE 100KT JET OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH LIFTS N OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE AXIS
CENTERED S OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING THRU THE FL STRAITS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL AS IT LIFTS N IN RESPONSE TO
THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN.

DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE REGION...TAPPING A RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER CUBA/BAHAMA BANK WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH
VALUES BLO 60PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT...AND NO ORGANIZED
VORTICITY/OMEGA LIFT THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. ENHANCED MOISTURE BAND
ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE ONLY SIG MOISTURE
SOURCE. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE BULK OF IT
PINNED N OF THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIG SLUG OF DRY AIR
WORKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL THRU DAYBREAK WITH H100-H70 DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BTWN 10-15C AS FAR N AS LAKE GEORGE.

THE DECREASING MOISTURE AND LACK OF DYNAMIC LIFT WILL PRECLUDE
PRECIP OVER THE SRN CWA...NRN CWA LIMITED TO THE 20-30PCT RANGE THRU
SUNSET TUE. LOW LVL INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN A TOUCH AS THE ATLC
RIDGE DRIFTS N...TRAPPING LOW LVL MOISTURE BLO THE H90 LYR. SFC
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFT
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RIDGE TO MAINTAIN 20-30KTS OF FLOW THRU H85
LVL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG FORMATION. INDEED...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY HINTING AT AN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...A
REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE SRLY FLOW.

PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABV CLIMO AVG...MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE M/U60S (ARND 15F ABV AVG)...MAX TEMPS L/M80S (5-10F
ABV AVG).

TUE NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...
DEEP CENTRAL CONUS MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSHES E-NE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH ITS BASE DAMPENING OUT THU-THU NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE SERN
CONUS/NORTH FL. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER ECFL ON WED
BTWN A DEVELOP GULF COAST LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ADVECT IN HIGHER MEAN PWAT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING
H85 WINDS (30-40KT) AND ENHANCED H25 JET DIVG/FORCED ASCENT WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF STORMS. SOME
OF THESE COULD BE STRONG...GIVEN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED AND
INCREASING 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY.

FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THRU
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD RAPIDLY OVER FL. GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME STABLE W/R/T SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES NOW CENTERED ON THE WED-WED NIGHT TIME FRAME. WARM MAX
TEMPS IN THE L-M80S WED WITH MINS IN THE U50S-L60S. MAXES WILL COOL
OFF TO THE L70S THU-FRI. MINS IN THE U50S NORTH/L-M60S SOUTH WED
NIGHT...COOL OFF TO THE M-U40S/L-M50S ON THU NIGHT BEFORE MODIFYING
BACK TO MOSTLY 50S FRI NIGHT.

SAT-MON...
MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN OVHD THROUGH LATE
WEEK. GFS/ECM DIFFER W/R/T SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND RESULTANT
SWD PUSH OF NEXT FRONT INTO NORTH OR CENTRAL FL. TEND TO FAVOR LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR NOW AS RECENT ECM RUNS SHOWED TOO MUCH SWD PUSH
WITH A SIMILAR FRONT LAST WEEK...AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISPARITY THE NEW DAY 6-7 FORECAST (SUN-MON) SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWER. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 23/18Z

SFC WNDS:
THRU 23/00Z...S/SE 8-12KTS. BTWN 23/00Z-23/14Z...S 3-6KTS. AFT
23/14Z...8-13KTS.

VSBYS/WX:
THRU 23/06Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS N OF KMLB-KLAL. BTWN
23/06Z-23/14Z...AREAS MVFR BR ALL SITES...LCL LIFR FG VCNTY
KVRB/KFPR/KLEE. AFT 23/14Z...VFR.

CIGS/WX:
N OF KMLB-KLAL...THRU 23/03Z AREAS FL035-050 WITH BRIEF PDS MVFR
BTWN FL020-030 IN PASSING -SHRAS. BTWN 23/03Z-23/06Z...BCMG MVFR
BTWN FL015-025. BTWN 23/06Z-23/15Z...IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH AREAS
LIFR BLO FL004. AFT 23/15Z...BCMG MVFR BTWN FL015-025.

S OF KMLB-KLAL...THRU 23/06Z AOA FL120. BTWN 23/06Z-23/08Z...BCMG
MVFR BTWN FL015-025. BTWN 23/08Z-23/14Z...IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH
LCL LIFR BLO FL004. AFT 23/14Z...BCMG MVFR BTWN FL015-025.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...DEEP HI PRES OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE AFT DAYBREAK. ERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH THE
WINDS TO GENERATE 2-3FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT SEAS OFFSHORE.
DOMINANT PDS ARND 9SEC THRU DAYBREAK...BUT FRESHENING SE WINDS ON
TUE WILL PUT THE SRN LEG INCREASINGLY UNDER THE SHADOW OF THE NRN
BAHAMAS...PDS SHORTENING TO AOB 5SEC FROM FT PIERCE INLET SWD.

WED-SAT...INCREASING SRLY WINDS WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 6FT WED INTO
WED NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD
FROPA WILL KEEP SEAS AT LEAST 6FT...POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 7FT OUT IN
THE GULF STREAM. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT CONDS WILL WARRANT AT LEAST
SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS...WITH LOW END SCA FOR 20KT/7FT
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD FL THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SLACKENING OF THE WINDS/SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  78  69  82 /  30  30  40  70
MCO  65  82  66  81 /  30  20  40  60
MLB  68  81  72  83 /  20  10  20  50
VRB  68  80  70  83 /  10  10  20  50
LEE  65  80  67  80 /  30  30  50  70
SFB  66  81  67  81 /  30  30  40  70
ORL  66  81  67  80 /  30  20  40  60
FPR  68  81  71  84 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI






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